Research

Current research interests 

Financial networks, International banking, International capital flows 🟢 , Bank regulation, Corporate Finance 🟢 , Climate risks 🟢 , Food System sustainability 🟢 

🟢  = related to climate change

Working papers

"Industrial Composition of Syndicated Loans and Banks' Climate Commitments" (with Fernanda Nechio and Brigid Meisenbacher)  CEPR DP 19357, FRBSF WP 2024-23  Quartz 🟢 

"Pace of adoption of alternatives to animal-source foods and climate goals" Draft  Prepring - this version  Preprint - older version  🟢 

"What Prevents Young People from Eating Healthy?" (with Ted Liu, Madison Bankosh, Marielena Benavides, Yang Li, Marlene Nava, Dmitrius Rodriquez, and Eli Vega).  Draft. 

Academic publications

Books

"Foreign Direct Investment in China: Winners and Losers" (with Cheryl Long), World Scientific, Singapore, 2012.

"The Making of the European Monetary Union: 30 years since the ERM crisis" (co-edited with Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Giancarlo Corsetti), CEPR e-book, 2023. 

Peer-reviewed publications

"Inflationary effects of fiscal support to households and firms" (with Fernanda Nechio and John Leer).  Forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance.  CEPR DP 17856.  NBER WP 30906.  Podcast.  NBER Digest. VoxTalks. Castbox 

“Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates:  Are Beliefs Keeping Up With Climate Change?”, IMF Economic Review.  Vol. 72, 253-291, 2024.  🟢  

"Do Looks Matter for an Academic Career in Economics?" (with Tali Regev and Yona Rubinstein). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 215, November 2023: 406-420.  CEPR DP 15893. Draft. NYT. Yahoo Finance. NPR Marketplace. ConscienHealth. Mint. UCSC. VoxTalks 

"Research Needs for a Food System Transition" (with Sonali McDermid, Mathew Hayek, Dale Jamieson, David Kanter). Climatic Change, 176(41), April 2023.  🟢 

"Climate Risks and FDI" (with Grace Gu). Journal of International Economics, 2023, 103731 Open access. NBER WP 30452. CEPR DP 17857. NBER WP 30452. Policy Circle   🟢 

"Currency-Induced External Balance Sheet Effects at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis" (with Luciana Juvenal).  Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 147.  Feb 2023, 106570.  Open access.

"Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy" (with Julian Di Giovanni). Journal of Finance, 77: 3373-3421, 2022. CEPR DP 15404.  NBER WP 28827.  Draft.  Internet Appendix . Data and Programs (zipped Matlab and Stata files) Mentions:  Brookings , Liberty Street Economics Blog 

 "International Capital Flows" (with Yanshuo Chen). Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. Oxford University Press, 2021.

"Corporate Yields:  Effect of Credit Ratings and Sovereign Yields" (with Julia Bevilaqua and Eric Tallman).  AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2020, 110: 499–503.  CEPR DP14345.  Draft. Online Appendix.   Replication folder repository.

"Corporate Yields and Sovereign Yields" (with Julia Bevilaqua and Eric Tallman).  Journal of International Economics, 2020, 124. CEPR DP14344.  Draft.  Replication files.

"Home Currency Issuance in International Bond Markets" (with Peter Jones and Mark Spiegel), Journal of International Economics, 2020:  103256. Draft .  Replication files.

"Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending:  Credit and Real Effects (with Tumer Kapan and Camelia Minoiu), Review of Financial Studies, 2020, 33(10): 4839-82.  Working paper

“The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis” (with Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, and Eric Tallman), Open Economies Review, 2020, 31: 219-236. CEPR DP 13522.  Draft. 

“Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models” (with John Krainer and Eric McCarthy), International Journal of Central Banking, 2020, 7(1).  Working paper.  

“U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending” (with Stefan Avdjiev), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 95: 251-268.  Working paper.

“Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data” (with Jose Lopez), Journal of Econometrics, 2019, 212(1): 203-220.  Last draft. Replication files .

“Bank Linkages and International Trade” (with Chris Candelaria and Julian Caballero), Journal of International Economics, 2018, 115: 30-47.  Replication files.  Working paper

“The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows” (with Maurice Obstfeld), Journal of European Economic Association, 2016, 14(1):115-144. CEPR DP 9937. NBER WP 20033. Draft.  Replication files.

“Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending” (with Eugenio Cerutti and Camelia Minoiu), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 52: 60-81. 

“Productivity Spillovers from FDI in the People’s Republic of China: A Nuanced View” (with Cheryl Long and Hirotaka Miura), Asian Development Review, 2014, 31(2): 77-108.

“Do Banks Propagate Debt Market Shocks?” (with Joao Santos),  Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2014, 6(3). 

“Gender Ratios at Top PhD Programs in Economics,” (with Tali Regev), Economics of Education Review, 2014, 41: 55-70.

“Persistence of Regional Wage Differences in China,” (with Mary Daly and Chris Candelaria), Pacific Economic Review, 2015, 20(3): 365-387.

“Stock Prices in the Presence of Liquidity Crises: The Effect of Creditor Protection,” (with Assaf Razin and Hui Tong), Economica, 2014, 81(322): 329-347.

“Bank Relationships, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises,” Journal of International Economics, 2012, 88(2): 312-325.  NBER WP 17356. 

“Currency Composition of International Bonds: The EMU effect” (with Mark Spiegel), Journal of International Economics, 2012, 88 (1): 134-149.

“Did Foreign Direct Investment Put an Upward Pressure on Wages in China?” (with Cheryl Long), IMF Economic Review, 2011, 59(3): 404-430.

“Are There Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in China?” (with Cheryl Long), Pacific Economic Review, 2011, 16(2): pp. 135-153.

“Foreign Direct Investment and the Incentives to Innovate and Imitate” (with Irene Brambilla and Cheryl Long), Scandinavian Journal of Economics , 2009, 111(4). 

“Currency Crises and Foreign Credit in Emerging Markets: Credit Crunch or Demand Effect?” (with Carlos Arteta), European Economic Review, 2009, 53: 758-74.

“Do Banks Price Their Informational Monopoly?” (with Joao Santos), Journal of Financial Economics, 2009, 93(2): 185-206.

“The Decision to First Enter the Public Bond Market: The Role of Firm Reputation, Funding Choices, & Bank relationships,” (with Joao Santos), Journal of Banking and Finance, 2008, 32(9): 1928-40.

“Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector,” (with Carlos Arteta), Journal of International Economics, 2008, 74(1): 53-69.

“Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals,” Economic Journal, 2007, 117: 196-215.

“Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover,” (with Mark Carlson), Topics in Macroeconomics, 2006, 6(2): Article 8.

“World Experience in Fighting High Inflation,” Vestnik Moscow State University #3, 1996 (in Russian). 

 Book chapters 

“FDI Effects on Host Countries’ labor markets” (With Mingzhi Xu) in “Encyclopedia of International Economics and Global Trade”, 2020.  World Scientific. ISBN: 978-981-12-0053-3.  Volume 1, Part IV, Chapter 3.

“Share of Imports and Commodities in Consumption and Investment in the United States” (with Bart Hobijn) in “Uncovering Value Added in Trade” edited by Y.Xing, World Scientific, Singapore, 2015. Chapter 6, 101-112.  

“Capital Raisings” in “The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization” edited by G.Caprio, Elsevier, 2012. Chapter 10, 145-154. 

“If You Try, You’ll Get By: Chinese Private Firms’ Efficiency gains from overcoming Financial Constraints” (with Cheryl Long) in “The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy” edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Jacob de Haan, CESifo Seminar Series, MIT Press, 2013.

“What are the Sources of Financing of the Chinese Firms?” (with Cheryl Long) in “The Evolving Role Of Asia In Global Finance” edited by Yin-Wong Cheung, Vakas Kakkar And Guonan Ma, series “Frontiers of Economics and Globalization”, volume 9, Emerald Group Publishing, 2011.

12 entries in International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, William A. Darity Jr. (ed.), 2nd ed. Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA, 2008. (beggar-thy-neighbor, currency, currency appreciation and depreciation, currency devaluation and revaluation, dirty float, elasticity, static expectations, overshooting, foreign reserves, economic sterilization, discounted present value, stocks and flows)

“Flight to Quality: Investor Risk Tolerance and the Spread of Emerging Market Crises,” (with B.Eichengreen  and A.Mody) , in S.Claessens  and K.Forbes  eds. International Financial Contagion. Kluwer , 2001.  

Book reviews and published comments

Comment on T. Dahlhaus and G.Vasishtha "Monetary Policy News in the U.S.: Effects on Emerging Market Capital Flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 114, 102404, June 2021.  Draft version 

“Understanding Global Banking” (with Katheryn Russ and Jacob de Haan), IMF Economic Review, 2015, 63(4), 693-97.  Introduction to the special issue. Draft 

“Macroeconomics of Low-Income Countries: New Perspectives” (with Camelia Minoiu), Pacific Economic Review, 2015, 20(1), 45-48.  Introduction to the special issue.

Review of  “Size, Risk, & Governance in European Banking” by J. Hagendorff, K. Keasey and F. Vallascas, The Social Science Journal, 2014, 51(4), 704-705. 

Comment on N.Hautsch, J.Shaumburg, and M.Schienle “Forecasting Systemic Impacts in Financial Networks,” International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30(3): 795-796.

Review of “China’s Financial Transition at a Crossroads” by C.Calomiris (ed.), Journal of International Economics, 2009, 79 (1), pp.171-172.

Comment on Zhi Wang and Shang-Jin Wei: “What Accounts for the Rising Sophistication of China’s Exports?” in China's Growing Role in World Trade, edited by Robert Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei, University of Chicago Press, NBER: 2010.

“Sound Policies for Emerging Markets’ Financial Stability,” A review of Calvo (2005) and Fisher (2004), International Finance, 2007, 10(1): 101-114.

CAFIN Bulletins

FRBSF Economic Letters (arranged by topic)

Climate risks

Inflation

Financial stability

Trade

Asset prices and exchange rates

International capital flows and crises

Other publications

"The Need for Increasing Private Sector Funding of Climate Solutions" Econofact, November 30, 2023. 🟢 

"The Importance of the Food Industry for Climate Change" Econofact, September 12, 2023.  🟢 

"Benefits and Costs of Requiring Companies to Disclose Climate Risks"  Econofact, June 29, 2022.  🟢 

"Economy of Francesco: From Initiative to Action" Rivista internazionale di scenze sociali,  2021,  n. 4, pp.495-500.  Draft  🟢 

"How Economic Crises Spread Abroad" Econofact, September 24, 2021.  Related discussion: The World

"Primer on reducing human consumption of animal products" Food System Innovations, 2020.  🟢 

"What are the Financial Risks from Climate Change?" Econofact, January 21, 2020.  🟢 

"Why is it Important to have Female Faculty?"  OMFIF, March, 2019. 

"Global Perspectives Policy Podcast" University of Sydney, 2019.  Listen here 

“The euro crisis in the mirror of the European Monetary System” (With Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, and Eric Tallman) VoxEU: 2019. 

“Shock Transmission through Global Banking Network” (With Camelia Minoiu and Tumer Kapan) VoxEU: 2016.

“How the Euro Changes the Pattern of International Debt Flows” (with Maurice Obstfeld) VoxEU: 2014.

"Study of Current and Former Vegetarians and Vegans" (with Faunalitics team)  Summary  🟢 

 “Does creditor protection mitigate the likelihood of financial crises and their effect on the stock market?” (with Assaf Razin) VoxEU: August 8, 2009.

“Lessons from Russian 1998 Financial Crisis,” UC Berkeley Center for Slavic and East European Studies Newsletter, Spring 2001, Vol.18, No.1.