Research

Peer-Reviewed Articles

  1. "Why Does Ethnic Partition Foster Violence? Unpacking the Deep Historical Roots of Civil Conflicts." Conditionally accepted for publication at Journal of Peace Research
  2. 2019 (forthcoming). "Battle Diffusion Matters: Examining the Impact of Microdynamics of Fighting on Conflict Termination." Journal of Conflict Resolution (co-authored with Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott)
  3. 2016. 「内戦における暴力行使の帰結：空間計量経済／統計モデルによるアプローチ」『レヴァイアサン』第59号: 131-169頁 (in Japanese)
  4. 2015. "From KISS to TASS Modeling: A Preliminary Analysis of the Segregation Model Incorporated with Spatial Data on Chicago." Japanese Journal of Political Science 16(4): 553-573 (co-authored with Susumu Yamakage)
  5. 2015. 「2つの集計化と非集計化：内戦研究の微視的転回，その含意と課題」『国際関係論研究』第31号: 73-99頁 (in Japanese)
  6. 2013. 「国際関係論におけるシミュレーション技法の展開：理論研究と実証研究の架橋」『国際関係論研究』第 30 号: 43-63頁 (in Japanese)

Recent Works

Submitted papers

  1. "Modeling the Determinants of Insurgent Violence in Afghanistan." Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Peace Research
  2. "Destruction from Above: Long-Term Impacts of WWII Tokyo Air Raids" (with Masataka Harada and Daniel M. Smith)
    • Presented at the 2018 APSA Annual Meeting, the 2019 MPSA Annual Meeting, and the 2019 Pacific International Political Conference
  3. "Escalation with Relocation: Unpacking the Local Geography of Aid and Battle Intensity in Civil Conflicts"
    • Presented at the 2017 MPSA Annual Meeting and 2018 ISA Annual Meeting

In preparation

  1. "Historical Image Analysis with Machine Learning: Evaluating the Damages of WWII Tokyo Air Raids" (with Masataka Harada)
  2. "How Peacekeeping Spreads Peace: Spatial Effects of Peacekeeping on Violence" (with Jun Koga Sudduth)
  3. "Climate Schoks, Rebel Consituencies, and Conflict Dynamics: Decomposing the Impacts of Climate Schoks on Civil War Violence."
  4. "How Do You Strike Me? Decomposing the Determinants of Selective and Indiscriminate Violence in Civil Conflicts." (Dissertation Chapter)

PhD Dissertation

"Process, Termination, and Outcome: A Spatial Analysis of the Causes and Consequences of Violence in Civil Conflicts." Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, University of Tokyo, February 2018

  • Assessment Committee: Atsushi Ishida (Chair, University of Tokyo), Mitsugi Endo (University of Tokyo), Takashi Shimizu (University of Tokyo), Takeshi Wada (University of Tokyo), and Susumu Yamakage (University of Tokyo → Aoyama Gakuin University)
  • Link to the U Tokyo Repository


Book Chapters

  1. 2018. 「国際貿易の実証分析：データセットと推定法」馬駿ほか編著『東アジアの森林・木材資源の持続的利用：経済学のアプローチ』農林統計協会，第11章 (in Japanese).
  2. 2014. 「拡大と疲弊の相互作用が生む戦争規模の法則性」山影進編著『アナーキーな社会の混沌と秩序』書籍工房早山，第7章 (in Japanese).

Non-Peer-Reviewed Articles

  1. 2018.「実証的シミュレーションの『作法』：現実との接合と説明力の検証」Aoyama Journal of International Studies No.5: 247-267 (共著・山影進, in Japanese)
  2. 2016.「社会科学における実証的シミュレーション：シェリングの分居モデルの拡張と空間データとの接合例」『青山国際政経論集』第96号: 101-124 (共著・山影進, in Japanese)
  3. 2015. "The Insurgent Disease? Simulating the Geography of Insurgent Violence." Working Paper Series: Study on Artificial Societies, No.48
  4. 2014. 「『拡大と疲弊の相互作用が生む戦争規模の法則性』補遺」ワーキングペーパーシリーズ人工社会研究 No.45 (in Japanese)


Research Grant

  1. 2018-2021 Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (type C), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant #: 18KT0054, JPY 4,290,000
  2. 2017-2020 Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (type B), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant #: 17K13686, JPY 4,160,000
  3. 2016-2018 Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-Up, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Grant #: 16H06819, JPY 2,990,000
  4. 2015-2016 The Konosuke Matsushita Memorial Foundation, JPY 500,000

Ongoing Projects

Sole Projects

  1. On the Historical Origins of Contemporary Civil Conflicts (Funded by the JSPS Kakenhi, Grant #: 18KT0054)
  2. Causes and Consequences of Foreign Aid and External Intervention in Civil Conflicts (Funded by the JSPS Kakenhi, Grant #: 17K13686)

Joint Projects

  1. "Measuring Destruction from Above: Long-Term Effects of the WWII Air Raid Damages on Contemporary Sociopolitical Activities in Japan." (with Masataka Harada and Daniel M. Smith)
  2. 「歴史事象の超長期的影響に関する研究」（with Yuichi Kubota and Masataka Harada. Funded by the JSPS Kakenhi, Grant #: 19K21681)
  3. "Spatial Effects of Peacekeeping on Violence in Civil Conflicts" (with Jun Koga Sudduth)
  4. Sustainable Use of Resources in Northeast Asia (NIHU Transdisciplinary Area Studies Project for Northeast Asia @ Toyama Univ)