Real Exchange Rate and Tradable Performance in a Developing Economy: Heterogeneous Effects and Structural Bias. In Development Macroeconomics Bulletin. Vol 3 N1, 2023.
What is the role of the real exchange rate in the performance of the tradable sector in a developing economy specialized in natural resource-related activities? In this article, we will answer this question, summarizing the main results of three related papers of our own. The three papers focus on the heterogeneity effects of the real exchange rate (RER) level on the export and import performance of different sectors in Argentina. The first paper employs the Mean Group method to estimate the RER-elasticities by individual products disaggregated at four digits of the SITC; rev.2. Its main result highlights a wide range of heterogeneous responses of exports and imports to RER movements at the individual product level, being RER-elasticities in differentiated products and labor-intensive manufacturing goods substantially larger than those of primary and homogeneous products. This finding has a critical consequence on the value of aggregate RER-elasticity --weighted by Argentina’s trade basket shares-- given that Argentina’s economic structure is heavily specialized in primary and homogeneous products. The second and third paper takes advantage of the large devaluation of 2002 to study the development of new tradable sectors during a period of stable and competitive real exchange rate (SCRER). While the second paper focuses on the occurrence of sectoral export surge episodes, the third studies the occurrence of import substitution episodes. Their main conclusions are: (i) the peak of the sectoral export surge and import substitution episodes occurred during the SCRER period; (ii) they are positively related to the labor intensity of sectors and their relatedness to already competitive sectors; (iii) sectors with export surges episodes show sign of hysteresis effects with a long-lasting increase of their export level after the end of the SCRER period; (iv) export surge episodes are positively correlated to sectors that have import substitution episodes during the SCRER period, meaning there is no conflict in the development of export and domestic tradable sectors when the key driver of tradable competitiveness is the level of the real exchange rate.
Políticas de desarrollo productivo. Con Juan O'Farrel, Tomás Bril Mascarenhas, Carlos Freytes y Belén Días Lourenco [FUNDAR]
Este Documento de Trabajo analiza por qué es necesario adoptar PDP, cómo concebirlas e implementarlas y qué combinación de instrumentos produce mejores resultados en ese proceso. Se propone, además, utilizar el conocimiento disponible para plantear el caso de la Argentina desde una perspectiva comparada y hacer más inteligible el muchas veces caótico mundo de las PDP.
La discusión sobre el desarrollo en Argentina. Con Tomás Bril Mascarenhas, Carlos Freytes y Juan O'Farrel [FUNDAR]
La discusión sobre el desarrollo en la Argentina. El estado de la discusión. La cuestión coalicional en la Argentina. La política económica en el S. XXI y sus implicancias para una agenda de desarrollo en la Argentina. Una estrategia posible para la Argentina: el desarrollo exportador dinámico con inclusión social.
Qué es el desarrollo y cómo pensarlo. Con Tomás Bril Mascarenhas, Carlos Freytes y Juan O'Farrel [FUNDAR]
El concepto del desarrollo. Teorías del desarrollo: el debate contemporáneo. El camino al desarrollo en perspectiva comparada: un resultado difícil e infrecuente. Límites y desafíos al desarrollo: la trampa del ingreso medio.