This paper analyzes bottom-up vehicle component-level costs to assess average battery electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid vehicle, and conventional vehicle prices across major U.S. light-duty vehicle classes through 2035. These cost estimates are used to evaluate broader consumer benefits, as well as to discuss the implications for vehicle emission regulations in the United States.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Washington, DC; Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, Colorado; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, Michigan
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Assessments of the impact of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS) should inform consideration of future biofuels policy. Conventional wisdom suggests the RFS played a major role in stimulating the ten-fold expansion in ethanol production and consumption in the United States from 2002 to 2019, but evidence increasingly suggests the RFS may have had a smaller effect than previously assumed. Price competitiveness, federal and state policies such as reformulated gasoline requirements, and octane content in ethanol also affect market attractiveness. This study explores the roles of policy and economic factors by comparing historical data with results from scenarios simulated in a system dynamics model.
The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) supports new technologies to increase energy security in the transportation sector at a critical time for global petroleum supply, demand, and pricing. VTO works in collaboration with industry and research organizations to identify the priority areas of research needed to develop advanced vehicle technologies to reduce and eventually eliminate petroleum use, and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide from carbon-based fuels. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the benefits of the DOE-VTO for a wide range of vehicle applications, powertrain configurations and component technologies for different timeframes and quantify the potential future petroleum displacement up to 2045, as well as the cost evolution. While it is not possible to simulate all the different combinations, more than 2000 vehicles were simulated in the study.
When deploying alternative fuels, it is paramount to match the right fuel with the right location, in accordance with local market conditions. We used six market indicators to evaluate the existing and potential regional market health for each of the five most commonly deployed alternative fuels: electricity (used by plug-in electric vehicles), biodiesel (blends of B20 and higher), E85 ethanol, compressed natural gas (CNG), and propane. Each market indicator was mapped, combined, and evaluated by industry experts. This process revealed the weight the market indicators should be given, with the proximity of fueling stations being the most important indicator, followed by alternative fuel vehicle density, gasoline prices, state incentives, nearby resources, and finally, environmental benefit. Though markets vary among states, no state received 'weak' potential for all five fuels, indicating that all states have an opportunity to use at least one alternative fuel. California, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Washington appear to have the best potential markets for alternative fuels in general, with each sporting strong markets for four of the fuels. Wyoming showed the least potential, with weak markets for all alternative fuels except for CNG, for which it has a patchy market. Of all the fuels, CNG is promising in the greatest number of states--largely because freight traffic provides potential demand for many far-reaching corridor markets and because the sources of CNG are so widespread geographically.
Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
The Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report for April 2011 is a quarterly report on the prices of alternative fuels in the U.S. and their relation to gasoline and diesel prices. This issue describes prices that were gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stakeholders between April 1, 2011 and April 15, 2011, and then averaged in order to determine regional price trends by fuel and variability in fuel price within regions and among regions. The prices collected for this report represent retail, at-the-pump sales prices for each fuel, including Federal and state motor fuel taxes.Table 1 reports that the nationwide average price for regular gasoline has risen 61 cents per gallon from $3.08 per gallon to $3.69 per gallon; CNG price has risen from $1.93 to $2.06; ethanol (E85) has risen 45 cents from 2.75 to $3.20 per gallon; and biodiesel has risen 55 cents from $3.50 to $4.05. CNG is about $1.63 less than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis, while E85 is about 83 cents more than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis.
The Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report for January 2011 is a quarterly report on the prices of alternative fuels in the U.S. and their relation to gasoline and diesel prices. This issue describes prices that were gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stakeholders between January 24, 2011 and February 7, 2011, and then averaged in order to determine regional price trends by fuel and variability in fuel price within regions and among regions. The prices collected for this report represent retail, at-the-pump sales prices for each fuel, including Federal and state motor fuel taxes.Table 1 reports that the nationwide average price for regular gasoline has risen 30 cents per gallon from $2.78 per gallon to $3.08 per gallon; CNG price has remained the same at $1.93; and ethanol (E85) has risen 31 cents from $2.44 to $2.75 per gallon. CNG is about $1.15 less than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis, while E85 is about 81 cents more per gallon than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis.
The Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report for October 2010 is a quarterly report on the prices of alternative fuels in the U.S. and their relation to gasoline and diesel prices. This issue describes prices that were gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stakeholders between October 4, 2010 and October 14, 2010, and then averaged in order to determine regional price trends by fuel and variability in fuel price within regions and among regions. The prices collected for this report represent retail, at-the-pump sales prices for each fuel, including Federal and state motor fuel taxes.Table 1 reports that the nationwide average price for regular gasoline has risen 7 cents per gallon from $2.71 per gallon to $2.78 per gallon; CNG price has risen 2 cents from $1.91 to $1.93; and ethanol (E85) has risen 14 cents from $2.30 to $2.44 per gallon. CNG is about 85 cents less than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis, while E85 is about 67 cents more per gallon than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis.
The Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report for July 2010 is a quarterly report on the prices of alternative fuels in the U.S. and their relation to gasoline and diesel prices. This issue describes prices that were gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stakeholders between July 12, 2010 and July 23, 2010, and then averaged in order to determine regional price trends by fuel and variability in fuel price within regions and among regions. The prices collected for this report represent retail, at-the-pump sales prices for each fuel, including Federal and state motor fuel taxes.Table 1 reports that the nationwide average price for regular gasoline has fallen 13 cents per gallon from $2.84 per gallon to $2.71 per gallon; CNG price has risen 1 cents from $1.90 to $1.91; and ethanol (E85) has fallen 12 cents from $2.42 to $2.30 per gallon. CNG is about 80 cents less than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis, while E85 is about 54 cents more per gallon than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis.
The Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report for April 2010 is a quarterly report on the prices of alternative fuels in the U.S. and their relation to gasoline and diesel prices. This issue describes prices that were gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stakeholders between April 2 and April 12, 2010, and then averaged in order to determine regional price trends by fuel and variability in fuel price within regions and among regions. The prices collected for this report represent retail, at-the-pump sales prices for each fuel, including Federal and state motor fuel taxes.Table 1 reports that the nationwide average price for regular gasoline has risen 19 cents per gallon from $2.65 per gallon to $2.84 per gallon; CNG price has risen 5 cents from $1.85 to $1.90; and ethanol (E85) has risen 4 cents from $2.38 to $2.42 per gallon. CNG is about 94 cents less than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis, while E85 is about 58 cents more per gallon than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis. 152ee80cbc
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