Frederik Toscani
International Monetary Fund
European Offices - Paris
Contact: ftoscani "AT" imf.org
I am an economist, at the IMF since 2014, and currently based in Paris covering EU/Euro Area issues.
This website summarizes my research work.
Recent Working Papers:
Carbon Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area (joint with M. Konradt and T. McGregor), IMF Working Paper 24/031 (2024).
Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe (joint with D. Astinova, R. Duval, N-J. Hansen, B. Park and I. Shibata), IMF Working Paper 24/002 (2024).
Euro Area Inflation after the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages (joint with N-J. Hansen and J. Zhou), IMF Working Paper 23/131 (2023).
Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe (joint with N. Arregui, O. Celasun, D. Iakova, A. Mineshima, V. Mylonas, Y. Wong, L. Zeng and J. Zhou), IMF Working Paper 22/262 (2022).
A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area (joint with T. McGregor), IMF Working Paper 22/260 (2022).
Natural gas in Europe: the potential impact of disruptions to supply (joint with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, S. Maslova, A. Pienkowski and M. Stuermer), IMF Working Paper 22/145 (2022).
Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil (joint with D. Cunha, J. Pereira and R. Perrelli), IMF Working Paper 22/55 (2022).
The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil (joint with D. Al Masri and V. Flamini), IMF Working Paper 21/66 (2021).
Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle (joint with A. Pescatori and F. Lambert), IMF Working Paper 20/256 (2020).
Informality and the Challenge of Pension Design: The Outlook for Pension Adequacy in Peru (with C. Freudenberg), IMF Working Paper (2019).
More Work to Do? Taking Stock of Latin American Labor Markets (with A. David and F. Lambert), IMF Working Paper (2019).
Blogs, Magazine and Book Chapters:
VoxEU (27 February 2024): "Why the reduction in European workers’ hours after the pandemic is here to stay" (joint with D. Astimova, R. Duval, N-J. Hansen, B. Park and I. Shibata).
IMF Podcast (3 August 2023): "Euro Area Inflation and how Import Prices, Profits and Wages fit in"
IMF Chart of the Week (26 June 2023): “Europe’s Inflation Outlook Depends on How Corporate Profits Absorb Wage Gains” (joint with N-J. Hansen and J. Zhou).
VoxEU (3 Oct. 2022): “The potential impact of gas supply disruptions in Europe: An update” (joint with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pienkowski, A. Pescatori and M. Stuermer).
SUERF Policy Brief (September 2022): “Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply” (joint with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pienkowski, A. Pescatori and M. Stuermer).
IMF Chart of the Week (10 Feb. 2022): “Europe’s Consumers are Sitting on 1 Trillion Euros in Pandemic Savings”, joint with T. McGregor and N. Suphaphiphat.
Book chapter: “Informality and Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America” (joint with A. David and F. Lambert) in C. Deléchat and L. Medina (2021), The Global Informal Workforce, IMF.
Book chapter: Poverty and Inequality in Brazil and Latin America in Brazil : Boom, Bust, and Road to Recovery, editors A. Spilimbergo and K. Srinivasan, Washington D.C.
IMFBlog: How the Commodity Boom Helped Tackle Poverty and Inequality in Latin America
VoxEU: The shifting natural wealth of nations; Finance and Development: A Move South
VoxEU: Two hundred budget surprises: Fiscal costs of contingent liabilities; IMFBlog: Fiscal Costs of Hidden Deficits: Beware - When it Rains it Pours
IMF Research Bulletin: Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth
Journal Publications:
The Shifting Natural Wealth of Nations: The Role of Market Orientation (with R. Arezki and R. van der Ploeg), Journal of Development Economics, Volume 138, May 2019, Pages 228-245.
The Impact of Contingent Liability Realizations on Public Finances (with E. Bova, M. Ruiz Arranz and E. Ture), International Tax and Public Finance, April 2019, Volume 26, Issue 2, pp 381–417.
Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth (with T. Cavalcanti and D. Da Mata), Journal of Economic Growth, March 2019, Volume 24, Issue 1, pp 79–115.
Education: PhD Economics (University of Cambridge, 2014), MPhil Economics (University of Cambridge, 2009), BSc Economics (London School of Economics and Political Science, 2008).
Languages: German, English, French, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish