Frederik Toscani

I am an economist, at the IMF since 2014, and currently based in Paris covering EU/Euro Area issues. 

This website summarizes my recent working papers, journal articles and blogs/columns.

Recent Working Papers:

• Lifting Binding Constraints on Growth in Europe: Actionable Priorities to Deepen the Single Market (joint with N. Arnold, A. Dizioli, A. Fotiou, J.-M. Frie, B. Hacibedel, T. Iyer, H. Lin, M. Nabar and H. Tong), IMF Working Paper No. 25/113 (2025).

• Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications (joint with F. Caselli, H. Lin and J. Yao), IMF Working Paper 24/211 (2024).

• Carbon Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area (joint with M. Konradt and T. McGregor), IMF Working Paper 24/031 (2024).

• Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe (joint with D. Astinova, R. Duval, N-J. Hansen, B. Park  and I. Shibata), IMF Working Paper 24/002 (2024).

• Euro Area Inflation after the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages (joint with N-J. Hansen and J. Zhou), IMF Working Paper 23/131 (2023).

• Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe (joint with N. Arregui, O. Celasun, D. Iakova, A. Mineshima, V. Mylonas, Y. Wong, L. Zeng and J. Zhou), IMF Working Paper 22/262 (2022).

• A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area (joint with T. McGregor), IMF Working Paper 22/260 (2022).

• Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil (joint with D. Cunha, J. Pereira and R. Perrelli), IMF Working Paper 22/55 (2022).

• The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil (joint with D. Al Masri and V. Flamini), IMF Working Paper 21/66 (2021).

Journal Publications:

• Natural gas in Europe: The potential impact of disruptions to supply (with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, S. Maslova, A. Pienkowski and M. Stuermer), Energy Economics, Volume 138, October 2024.

• The Shifting Natural Wealth of Nations: The Role of Market Orientation (with R. Arezki and R. van der Ploeg), Journal of Development Economics, Volume 138, May 2019, pp 228-245. 

• The Impact of Contingent Liability Realizations on Public Finances (with E. Bova, M. Ruiz Arranz and E. Ture), International Tax and Public Finance, April 2019, Volume 26, Issue 2, pp 381–417. 

• Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth (with T. Cavalcanti and D. Da Mata), Journal of Economic Growth, March 2019, Volume 24, Issue 1, pp 79–115. 

Blogs, Magazine and Book Chapters:

• VoxEU (14 October 2024): "Macroeconomic implications of the recent surge of immigration to the EU" (joint with F. Caselli and A. Dizioli).

• VoxEU (27 February 2024): "Why the reduction in European workers’ hours after the pandemic is here to stay" (joint with D. Astimova, R. Duval, N-J. Hansen, B. Park and I. Shibata).

• IMF Podcast (3 August 2023): "Euro Area Inflation and how Import Prices, Profits and Wages fit in"

• IMF Chart of the Week (26 June 2023): “Europe’s Inflation Outlook Depends on How Corporate Profits Absorb Wage Gains” (joint with N-J. Hansen and J. Zhou).

• VoxEU (3 Oct. 2022): “The potential impact of gas supply disruptions in Europe: An update” (joint with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pienkowski, A. Pescatori and M. Stuermer).

• SUERF Policy Brief (September 2022): “Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply” (joint with G. Di Bella, M. Flanagan, K. Foda, A. Pienkowski, A. Pescatori and M. Stuermer).

• IMF Chart of the Week (10 Feb. 2022): “Europe’s Consumers are Sitting on 1 Trillion Euros in Pandemic Savings”, joint with T. McGregor and N. Suphaphiphat.

• Book chapter: “Informality and Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America” (joint with A. David and F. Lambert) in C. Deléchat and L. Medina (2021), The Global Informal Workforce, IMF.

• Book chapter: Poverty and Inequality in Brazil and Latin America in Brazil : Boom, Bust, and Road to Recovery, editors A. Spilimbergo and K. Srinivasan, Washington D.C.

• IMFBlog: How the Commodity Boom Helped Tackle Poverty and Inequality in Latin America

• VoxEU: The shifting natural wealth of nations; 

• Finance and Development: A Move South

• VoxEU: Two hundred budget surprises: Fiscal costs of contingent liabilities; IMFBlog: Fiscal Costs of Hidden Deficits: Beware - When it Rains it Pours

• IMF Research Bulletin: Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth

Education: PhD Economics (University of Cambridge, 2014), MPhil Economics (University of Cambridge, 2009), BSc Economics (London School of Economics and Political Science, 2008).

Languages: German, English, French, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish