KFstar

KF* is a natural level around which portfolio inflows oscillate.

Over a one- to two-year period, portfolio inflows for most countries -- especially EMEs -- return to KF*. And KF*gap, the gap between actual inflows and KF*, helps predict sudden stops and equity returns.

If you use the data, please cite the following paper:

John D. Burger, Francis E. Warnock and Veronica Cacdac Warnock (2022). A Natural Level of Capital Flows. Journal of Monetary Economics 130: 1-16 (lead article) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.05.009

Data (Stata dta files)

-- Please see the ReadMe file, which might answer some questions.

-- Annual KF* for 191 countries going back as far as 2000. Last data point: 2021

-- Quarterly KF* for 191 countries, as well as KF*gap for 125 countries (limited by countries that have quarterly flow data) and KF*gap/GDP for 88 countries (limited by quarterly nominal GDP data), going back as far as 2000q4. Last data point: 2021q4