Research

We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas leveraging exogenous temperature variation and a high-frequency news-based strategy. Gas demand is less elastic than supply, leading to larger price fluctuations following supply shocks. These shocks have notable macroeconomic effects: strongly inflationary in the Euro Area, amplified by inventory dynamics and financial volatility, suggesting a transmission channel driven by expectations and uncertainty. They were a major driver of the recent inflation surge, though effects were more muted in the U.S. Aggregate real effects appear short-lived, though we document notable sectoral heterogeneity and a substantial decline in German activity.

During the unprecedented global crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offered swift financial support to numerous member countries. Diverging from the approach taken during past crises, where financial support was tied to specific policy reforms, the Fund adapted to the pandemic's pressing demands by employing emergency financing instruments. These instruments, characterized by their rapid deployment capability, were made available without the traditional conditionality, marking a significant departure from conventional practices. The analysis in this paper demonstrates that, notwithstanding the absence of conditionality, such prompt financial assistance was pivotal in mobilizing additional sources of external financing. Middle-income countries experienced a marked surge in gross portfolio inflows, indicating increased investor confidence and capital market access. Simultaneously, low-income countries benefited from strengthened support from international development partners. These findings indicate that by mitigating liquidity strains and reaffirming public debt sustainability, alongside authorities' commitment to avoid measures that could worsen the country's balance of payments issues, the provision of emergency financing can instill confidence in investors and development partners.

We study the individual and macroeconomic consequences of near-rational expectations in a complex evolving economy. We introduce pseudo-rational (PR) expectations into the Keynes meeting Schumpeter agent-based macroeconomic model, whereby one PR firm forms expectations by exploiting full knowledge of the model. While pseudo-rational expectations deliver near-perfect foresight and substantially improve firm-level performance, they also expose the PR firm to pronounced boom–bust dynamics and a higher probability of exit. At the aggregate level, the introduction of a single forward-looking firm amplifies macroeconomic volatility and increases the likelihood of crises.

L’économie italienne est depuis longtemps caractérisée par une faible croissance, une productivité stagnante et une dette publique élevée. Ces dernières années, la baisse des salaires réels, la sous-utilisation et l’émigration de la main-d’oeuvre qualifiée, l’aggravation des disparités territoriales et l’augmentation des inégalités de revenus et de patrimoine ont accompagné ces carences. La structure productive du pays reste concentrée dans les secteurs traditionnels, dominés par les petites entreprises, et sous-représentée dans les industries stratégiques à fort potentiel de gains de productivité. S’appuyant sur des données macroéconomiques et sectorielles, cette étude évalue la situation actuelle de l’Italie et présente les mesures nécessaires pour inverser ces tendances. Elle propose aussi une stratégie industrielle fondée sur la complémentarité entre l’État et le marché, une coordination à long terme et une gouvernance polycentrique appuyée par des politiques visant à enrayer la baisse des salaires réels et à réduire les inégalités, afin de reconstruire la capacité productive et d’assurer une prospérité largement partagée.