Working Papers

Who Supports Environmental Policies? The Electoral Consequences of Taxing Polluting Vehicles  [JMP] (with Davide Cipullo) 

This paper investigates the political effects of environmental policies. Specifically, we study the impact of a pollution-based road pricing scheme on voter behavior by exploiting the features of the charging zone (CZ) implemented in Milan. The policy resulted in unequal benefits and costs for individuals residing within and outside the CZ. To establish causality, we compare electoral outcomes at precinct-level on opposite sides of the CZ boundary by applying a spatial regression-discontinuity design. RD estimates show a lower turnout in local elections in precincts barely outside the CZ with respect to those barely inside, re sulting in a sizeable discontinuity at the boundary (6-10 p.p.). We further investigate (i) to what extent the discontinuity depends on policy-induced urban mobility or on changes in individual voting behavior and (ii) whether our results are consistent with a reward of CZ residents or a punishment of the individual residing outside of the area. To this end, we develop a novel methodology combining the regression discontinuity design with the synthetic control method. We find that the effect is mainly explained by changes in individual voting behaviour and driven by those residing barely outside the CZ who choose not to vote.

You die, I live: Longevity Beliefs, Financial Knowledge and Retirement Planning  (with Claudia Curi, Andreas Dibiasi, Matteo Ploner and Mirco Tonin)

Sound life-cycle financial decisions require households to integrate different knowledge dimensions. Using original survey data from working-age individuals in northeastern Italy, we study how individuals understand three key knowledge components for life-cycle choices: financial literacy, knowledge of pension institutions, and life expectancy. We find that understanding in each domain is often limited and uncorrelated across the different components, resulting in fragmented and incomplete knowledge. We examine whether individuals update their longevity beliefs when provided with actuarial life expectancy information through a randomized experiment. The information has no effect on self-perceived longevity or retirement-related outcomes. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the low levels and correlations of the different knowledge components, but they also predict a strong updating pattern that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data.

The Impact of Taxing Polluting Vehicles on Local Economic Activity

Road transport significantly contributes to environmental degradation and public health risks, prompting policymakers to implement measures aimed at reducing private car use. While these policies address critical environmental challenges, they may also have unintended consequences on local economic activities by increasing transportation costs. This paper examines the economic impact of a vehicle emissions charge on small businesses in Milan, where a charging zone was introduced with fees determined by vehicle pollution levels. Using geo-referenced firm-level data, I provide causal estimates of the policy's effect on local economic activity. The findings show that the charges negatively affect only the sales of retail businesses located close to the perimeter of the regulated area, while leaving retail activities situated deeper inside the zone unaffected. Moreover, affected stores adjust their costs in response to the decline in revenues, resulting in no observable impact on profits or business closures. The empirical analysis is complemented by a theoretical framework that helps clarify the underlying mechanisms and reconciles findings from previous studies that appear otherwise contradictory.

Work in Progress

Culture and Long-term Investments  (with Claudia Curi, Andreas Dibiasi, Matteo Ploner and Mirco Tonin) 

Differential Treatments and Spillovers in Regression Discontinuity Designs