Working Papers

Longevity Beliefs and Retirement Planning: Evidence from an Information Experiment and Expert Forecasts  (with Claudia Curi, Andreas Dibiasi, Matteo Ploner and Mirco Tonin)  AEARCTR 1, AEARCTR 2

Using original survey data from working-age individuals in Northern Italy, we study longevity beliefs and other key knowledge components relevant for retirement decisions. We find substantial dispersion in population longevity beliefs, with 40% of individuals misestimating life expectancy by more than five years, and highly fragmented knowledge across domains. Providing actuarial life expectancy information – tailored by age, gender, and county of residence – does not affect beliefs about individuals’ own longevity or retirement planning, reflecting a disconnect between beliefs about one’s own longevity and that of others. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the levels and correlations of longevity literacy with other knowledge components, but they mispredict a strong updating response of own longevity expectations to the provision of population information that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data.

The Impact of Taxing Polluting Vehicles on Local Economic Activity

Congestion charges and low-emission zones aim to mitigate major negative externalities in urban areas, but they may also have unintended consequences on local economic activities by increasing transportation costs. Using geo-referenced firm-level data, I provide causal estimates of the effects of a vehicle-emissions charging zone on small businesses in Milan. The findings show that the charging zone negatively affect only the sales of retail businesses located close to the perimeter of the regulated area, while leaving retail activities situated deeper inside the zone unaffected. Moreover, affected stores adjust their costs in response to the decline in revenues, substantially attenuating the effects on profits and business closures. The empirical analysis is complemented by a theoretical framework that helps clarify the underlying mechanisms and reconciles findings from previous studies that appear otherwise contradictory.

Work in Progress

Who Supports Environmental Policies? The Electoral Consequences of Taxing Polluting Vehicles (with Davide Cipullo) 

Culture and Long-term Investments  (with Claudia Curi, Andreas Dibiasi, Matteo Ploner and Mirco Tonin) 

Differential Treatments and Spillovers in Regression Discontinuity Designs