Working Papers

Who Supports Environmental Policies? The Electoral Consequences of Taxing Polluting Vehicles (with Davide Cipullo) 

This paper investigates the political effects of environmental policies. Specifically, we study the impact of a pollution-based road pricing scheme on voter behavior by exploiting the features of the charging zone (CZ) implemented in Milan. The policy resulted in unequal benefits and costs for individuals residing within and outside the CZ. To establish causality, we compare electoral outcomes at precinct-level on opposite sides of the CZ boundary by applying a spatial regression-discontinuity design. RD estimates show a lower turnout in local elections in precincts barely outside the CZ with respect to those barely inside, resulting in a sizeable discontinuity at the boundary (6-10 p.p.). We further investigate (i) to what extent the discontinuity depends on policy-induced urban mobility or on changes in individual voting behavior and (ii) whether our results are consistent with a reward of CZ residents or a punishment of the individual residing outside of the area. To this end, we develop a novel methodology combining the regression discontinuity design with the synthetic control method. We find that the effect is mainly explained by changes in individual voting behaviour and driven by those residing barely outside the CZ who choose not to vote.

Longevity Beliefs and Retirement Decisions: Evidence from an Information Experiment and Expert Forecasts  (with Claudia Curi, Andreas Dibiasi, Matteo Ploner and Mirco Tonin)  AEARCTR 1, AEARCTR 2

Using original survey data from working-age individuals in Northern Italy, we study longevity beliefs and other key knowledge components relevant for retirement decisions. We find substantial dispersion in population longevity beliefs, with 40% of individuals misestimating life expectancy by more than five years, and highly fragmented knowledge across domains. Providing actuarial life expectancy information – tailored by age, gender, and county of residence – does not affect beliefs about individuals’ own longevity or retirement decisions, reflecting a disconnect between beliefs about one’s own longevity and that of others. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the levels and correlations of longevity literacy with other knowledge components, but they mispredict a strong updating response of own longevity expectations to the provision of population information that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data.

The Impact of Taxing Polluting Vehicles on Local Economic Activity

Road transport significantly contributes to environmental degradation and public health risks, prompting policymakers to implement measures aimed at reducing private car use. While these policies address critical environmental challenges, they may also have unintended consequences on local economic activities by increasing transportation costs. This paper examines the economic impact of a vehicle emissions charge on small businesses in Milan, where a charging zone was introduced with fees determined by vehicle pollution levels. Using geo-referenced firm-level data, I provide causal estimates of the policy's effect on local economic activity. The findings show that the charges negatively affect only the sales of retail businesses located close to the perimeter of the regulated area, while leaving retail activities situated deeper inside the zone unaffected. Moreover, affected stores adjust their costs in response to the decline in revenues, resulting in no observable impact on profits or business closures. The empirical analysis is complemented by a theoretical framework that helps clarify the underlying mechanisms and reconciles findings from previous studies that appear otherwise contradictory.

Work in Progress

Culture and Long-term Investments  (with Claudia Curi, Andreas Dibiasi, Matteo Ploner and Mirco Tonin) 

Differential Treatments and Spillovers in Regression Discontinuity Designs