Research

COVID-19 Inflation Weights in the UK and Germany with E. Pugacheva, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 79

Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (more than Capital Controls)?   with K. Bergant, N. J. Hansen, and D. Sandri, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (accepted) [VoxEU] [SUERF]

Idiosyncratic Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Emerging Market with E. Luttini and D. Sandri, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 160, 2022

Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets?  with R. Bems, F. Caselli, and B. Gruss, International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 18, No. 4, 2022

Network Effects and Research Collaborations with D. Essers and E. Pugacheva, Scientometrics, pp. 1-24, 2022 [VoxEU]

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19 with A. Checo and J. M. Mota, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 159-196, 2022 [LSE Blog]

Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns with F. Caselli and D. Sandri, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 241-268, 2022 [VoxEU] [IMF  Blog]

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age  with F. Caselli, D. Sandri, and A. Spilimbergo, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 70, pp. 105-138, 2022 [VoxEU]

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence  with R. Bems, F. Caselli, B. Gruss, and W. Lian, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 32, 2021 [IMF Blog]

Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty  with N. Biljanovska and M. Hengge,  Review of International Economics, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 409-438, 2021

Calling Older Workers Back to Work with Z. Koczan and P. Topalova, Applied Economics Letters , pp. 1-8, 2021 

A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies  with Z. Koczan and P. Topalova, Oxford Economic Papers , Vol. 73, No. 2, pp.  623-643, 2021

Automation and Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence   with Z. Koczan and P. Topalova, European Economic Review, Vol. 126, pp. 1-23, 2020 [IMF Blog]

Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?  with G. Di Bella and F. Ramírez, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 1-17, 2020 

A Note on the Algebra of Multiple Exchange Rates  with G. Di Bella and R. Romeu, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 382-287, 2020

Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock  with R. Bems, F. Caselli, and B. Gruss, Economics Letters,  Vol. 188, pp. 1-6, 2020 

Inequality Overhang with A. Robles, Journal of Income Distribution, Vol. 27, No. 3-4, pp. 106-133, 2019 [IMF Blog]

Inequality and Growth: A Heterogeneous Approach with E. Paredes and G. Di Bella, Journal of Income Distribution, Vol. 27, No. 3-4, pp. 18-49, 2019 [IMF Blog]

A Crude Shock: Explaining the Impact of the 2014-16 Oil Price Decline Across Countries with A. Herman and A. Swiston, Energy Economics, Vol. 78, pp.481-493, 2019 

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations  with G. Di Bella, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 60, pp. 79-96, 2019 

Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections; An Application to Ecuador with M. Saldías and M. Mansilla, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 97, pp. 130-141, 2018 

Fiscal Federalism and Regional Performance  with G. Di Bella and O. Dynnikova, Russian Journal of Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 108-132, 2018

Saving in the World with A. Herman and K. Schmidt-Hebbel, World Development, Vol. 104, pp. 257-270, 2018 

Waste Not, Want Not: The Efficiency of Health Expenditure in Emerging and Developing Economies with J. Kapsoli, Review of Development Economics, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 384--403, 2018 [IMF Research Bulletin]

Power It Up; Strengthening the Electricity Sector to Improve Efficiency and Support Economic Activity with G. Di Bella, Energy Economics, Vol. 67, pp. 375-386, 2017

Is Private Saving in Latin America and the Caribbean Different? with A. Herman and K. Schmidt-Hebbel, Review of Development Economics, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 1-26, 2017 

Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Dominican Republic with J. M. Mota, Latin American Economic Review, Vol. 26, No. 4, 2017

The impact of terms of trade and macroeconomic regimes on private saving with A. Herman and K. Schmidt-Hebbel, Economics Letters, Vol. 145, pp. 172-175, 2016

Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy with A. Herman, A. Swiston, and G. Di Bella, Russian Journal of Economics, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 329-358, 2015 [IMF Blog]

A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies, Applied Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 19-32, 2014

Multiyear Budgets and Fiscal Performance: Panel Data Evidence with R. Vlaicu, M. Verhoeven, and Z. Mills, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 111, pp. 79-95, 2014 

Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan; Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?  with D. Hakura, Middle East Development Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 21-41, 2014

Institutions and Public Investment: An Empirical Analysis with Z. Mills, Economics of Governance, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 131-153, 2013 

Determinants And Dynamics Of Schooling And Child Labour In Bolivia with G. Sbrana, Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 65(1), pp. 17-37, 2012

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence, with A. Checo and D. Sandri, CEPR Working Paper 18954; BIS Working Paper 1170, IMF Working Paper 24/93 [VoxEU]

Keep Calm and Bank on: Panic-Driven Bank Runs and the Role of Public Communication with D. Sandri, Y. Gorodnichenko, and O. Coibion, NBER Working Paper 31644; CEPR Working Paper 18448; BIS Working Paper 1119 [VoxEU] [ProMarket]

Worker Mobility in Production Networks with M. Cardoza, N. Pierri, and C. Ruane, STEG Working Paper WP066 (conditionally accepted at Review of Economic Studies)

Low for (Very) Long: A Long-Run Perspective on r* across Advanced Economies with J. Platzer and R. Tietz, IMF Working Paper 23/85

Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations with D. Sandri, IMF Working Paper 23/66; CEPR Discussion Paper 18010; BIS Working Paper 1082 [VoxEU]

Monetary Policy and Credit Card Spending with D. Sandri,  IMF Working Paper 22/255; CEPR Discussion Paper 17751; BIS Working Paper 1064 [VoxEU]

Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain with E. Albagli and E. Luttini, IMF Working Paper 22/161 [IMF Research Perspectives] [Vox LACEA]

Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth with F. Caselli, R. Lafarguette, and C. Wang, IMF Working Paper 20/078 

Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion with B. Gruss and S. Lizarazo, IMF Working Paper 20/252 (R&R at International Journal of Central Banking)

State-Owned Banks and Fiscal Discipline  with J. Gonzalez-Garcia, IMF Working Paper 13/206 [IMF Blog]

Public Expenditure in the Slovak Republic; Composition and Technical Efficiency, IMF Working Paper 12/173

IMF's World Economic Outlook Chapters

The Great Lockdown, Dissecting the Economic Impact with F. Caselli, W. Lian, and D. Sandri, IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2020, Chapter 3

Dampening the Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Emerging Market Economies with K. Bergant, N. J. Hansen, and D. Sandri, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020, Chapter 3

Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalize with R. Bems, F. Caselli, B. Gruss, and W. Lian, IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2018, Chapter 3

Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Drivers and Prospects with K. Koczan and P. Topalova, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2018, Chapter 2

IMF's World Economic Outlook Boxes

Monetary Policy: Speed of Transmission, Heterogeneity, and Asymmetries, with S. Albrizio, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2023, Chapter 1, Box 1.2

Determinants of Neutral Interest Rates and Uncertain Prospect, with J. Platzer and R. Tietz, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2022, Chapter 1, Box 1.2

Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Daunting Task, IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2018, Box 1.6

Emerging Market and Developing Economy Growth: Heterogeneity and Income Convergence over the Forecast Horizon, IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2017, Chapter 1, Box  1.3

IMF's Staff Discussion Notes

Fiscal Policy in Latin America; Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis  with O. Celasun, K. Honjo, J. Kapsoli, A. Klemm, B. Lissovolik, J. Luksic, M. Moreno Badia, J. Pereira, M. Poplawski-Ribeiro, and B. Shang, IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/6, 2015

Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries  with M. A. Albino-War,  S. Cerovic, J. C. Flores, J. Kapsoli, H. Qu, Y. Said, B. Shukurov, M. Sommer, S. Yoon, IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/10, 2014