Research

Working papers

"Planned Development and the Making of Tropical Deforestation: Evidence from Indonesia's Transmigration Program" [link]

Abstract: I use Indonesia’s Transmigration Program, which resettled millions of households into planned villages in the 1970s–1980s, to study how state-led development can generate long-run path dependence in tropical forest degradation. I exploit oil-price-driven variation in program implementation and use indigenous villages in planned but never realized areas as counterfactuals. Environmental outcomes are measured by constructing a quality-adjusted forest stock that combines forest extent with a novel global measure of forest integrity. With a rich set of geographic and agricultural placement covariates and using a doubly robust reweighting estimator, I find that transmigrant-founded villages exhibit persistently lower forest outcomes in 2019 than comparable indigenous villages in planned areas, with detectable effects both in the very long run and since decentralization reforms in 2001. I decompose the effects into extensive and intensive margins and find declines along both dimensions. Transmigrant villages are also more likely to be early palm oil adopters conditional on both suitability and comparative advantage relative to rice, implying the program helped shape the spatial origins of Indonesia's post-decentralization palm oil boom, the dominant driver of deforestation in the region. Moreover, indigenous villages with transmigrant presence show evidence of negative spillover effects increasing in transmigrant share. Back-of-envelope valuation implies substantial damages, on the order of $17–$256 billion under alternative assumptions. This study contributes to the understanding of the long-term institutional drivers of tropical deforestation and provides a framework to study forest changes in both quantity and quality.

"Can Policy Halt Language Extinction? Evidence from Wales" [link]

Abstract: Up to 90% of existing languages might disappear by 2100. Despite increasing recognition and funding for endangered languages, decline is often perceived as inevitable, and evidence on minority language policy efficacy remains scarce. I estimate the effectiveness of the introduction of compulsory Welsh-language education in 1990 on the probability of speaking Welsh in 2011. Results show the policy increased Welsh speaker numbers, raising speaking likelihood by 3.6 percentage points, with stronger effects for females and regional heterogeneity. The policy created 64,287 speakers over twenty years, 60% above the counterfactual, at an average cost of £3,957 per new speaker.

"Geographical Indications as a Development Tool: Quality Mapping and Conservation Incentives for Coffee" [link]

Abstract: The paper develops a theoretical model and empirical framework to design a Geographical Indication (GI) for coffee in East Timor that maximizes benefits for smallholders while preserving rainforest. In the context of the “coffee paradox”—where consumer prices rise globally even as farmers’ incomes remain stagnant and volatile—shade-grown coffee production generates both a social negative externality, namely food insecurity, and an environmental positive one, that is rainforest conservation. I construct a two-sector model to capture the land-use trade-offs between subsistence crops, coffee, and rainforest. The model shows that without intervention, farmers facing immediate food needs and limited market access over-clear forest for subsistence farming, whereas a social planner favors conserving forest and coffee plantations for long-term gain. I show that a GI policy can align farmers’ incentives with the social optimum, reducing deforestation and improving incomes without subsidies or significant enforcement. Using cupping score data from national coffee quality competitions, I identify regions consistently scoring above the specialty threshold (80 points) as candidates for GI status. Empirical analysis confirms that elevation is a strong predictor of quality: a 100-meter rise in altitude increases cupping scores by roughly 0.2 points, and only farms above 945 meters have a better-than-even chance of producing specialty-grade coffee. A potential benefit analysis suggests that a local coffee GI could generate substantial income gains (over $1,600 per farmer annually) while safeguarding forests. These findings position GIs as a viable, low-cost strategy for sustainable rural development in least-developed countries, provided they are underpinned by evidence-based quality mapping.

"Deep Sea Mining: Nonrenewable Resources Competition Under Uncertain Gains" (with Jorge Marco Renau) [link]

Abstract: Deep-sea mining is an emerging industry operating in a regulatory gray zone after the International Seabed Authority's deadline to finalize exploitation regulations lapsed in July 2023. Policymakers face a welfare problem in which mineral extraction generates rents that are comparatively easy to quantify, while the benefits of conserving deep-sea biodiversity—and the damages from disturbing fragile, largely unknown ecosystems—are subject to substantial uncertainty and irreversibility. This paper develops a two-period social planner model in which the planner chooses the share of the seafloor to protect prior to extraction. Welfare combines mineral rents, the value of biodiversity—including non-use, scientific, and commercial value—and a damage function that increases more than proportionally with the area open to mining. A key ecological constraint is a minimum protected share threshold required for ecosystem survival, under which biodiversity value collapses. The model delivers corner solutions (full protection or full openness) as well as an interior solution when protection exceeds the survival threshold; it also implies that "timid" conservation below the threshold is welfare-dominated. A numerical grid search over approximately two million parameter combinations shows that corner solutions dominate, and that the ecosystem survival threshold is the pivotal parameter governing efficient regulation and the value of scientific information. 

Works in Progress

"Let Me Think About It: Political Parties and Delays in FEMA Disaster Declarations" (with Pedro Vitale Simon)

"Deforestation and Air Pollution in the Indonesian Rainforest" (with Xinhui Sun)

"Estimating the WTP for Indigenous Language Conservation in the U.S." (with Amy Ando)