Work in progress
Work in progress
Using a large administrative dataset, we study the long-term career paths and pension contribution accumulation of the Italian workers fully covered by the Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) system since its introduction in 1996. We track the work intensity and the contribution accumulation of the cohorts entering the labour market between 1996 and 2011, and compare them with a continuously employed, median-wage benchmark. We document the average trajectories, the incidence of poor careers, and inequality, also by sex, contract type, and geographic area of birth. We find persistent and increasing career instability, especially among women and workers born in the South, and a substantial work intensity and capital accumulation gap for younger cohorts with high risk of inadequate future pensions. Complementing the analysis with simulations on GDP growth, wages, and employment risks, we document a primary role for macroeconomic factors and work intensity in driving the contribution gap dynamics.
This paper introduces a new harmonised global database on estate, inheritance, and gift (EIG) taxation, covering more than 170 countries, some with data going back to the 18th century, and all U.S. states from 2006. Despite substantial and persistent cross-country heterogeneity in tax design, we document a declining trend in the adoption and progressivity of EIG taxes since the 1980s. Furthermore, we offer new insights into the role of EIG taxes in revenue generation long-term decreases in wealth concentration. To investigate how tax design affects revenues, we complement a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) framework with an event-study approach, which is robust to heterogeneous treatment effects. We find that a one percentage point increase in the top rate is associated with approximately 7% higher revenues between 1965 and 2022, with larger effects (9-15%) from 1995 through 2019. U.S. state-level estimates echo these results with a semi-elasticity of about 11%. An event-study analysis of 54 significant tax policy reforms shows no evidence of pre-existing differential trends and reveals dynamic effects: revenues decline by roughly 50% within four years following a 10% decrease in top rates with symmetric effects for rate increases, suggesting that mechanical revenue effects dominate behavioural responses. Helped by a conceptual framework, we show that EIG taxes reduce top wealth shares in steady state when the top wealth group pays a higher share of EIG taxes than their share of inheritance receipts. Using TWFE specifications with 5-, 10-, and 15-year lags, we find evidence consistent with the theoretical prediction. A one percentage point increase in the top marginal tax rate is associated with a 0.11-point decline in the Gini coefficient after 10 years, with consistent effects across top and bottom wealth shares.
Measures of income polarization are motivated as quantifying conflict potential in a society. The key premise is that individuals share a feeling of “group identity” with people with similar income and feel “alienated” from people distant in income. The group identity element makes the concept of polarization distinct from the concept of inequality. Existing measures of polarization assume static societies. We argue that this is unsatisfactory and propose a measure that is sensitive to the dynamics of income over time. This inter-temporal income polarization measure introduces memory parameters that allow past income differences to determine the degree of current alienation and identification in a society. This leads to measures that are sensitive to the history of interpersonal proximity and distances in income trajectories. We illustrate the empirical relevance of this perspective with an application based on administrative data on labour income of several Italian cohorts. Estimates of polarization decline dramatically once the history of proximity is taken into account. This suggests that the level of polarization we measure in a snapshot of the distribution may not reflect actual polarization process if the latter is based on durable bonds.
Abstract: Using administrative data on the universe of labor market flows for Italy, we estimate the causal effect of job creation and destruction shocks on internal migration. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation resulting from mass hiring and layoff events at the establishment level. Our estimates show that job creation has a strong effect on in-migration while job destruction has a milder effect on out-migration. Crucially, we document that the large responsiveness of in-migration operates through changes in workers’ chosen destination alternatives. We show that these empirical findings can be reconciled by a simple model of migration enriched by labor demand shocks.
Abstract: Restoring the theoretical foundation of John Roemer’s conceptualization of inequality of opportunity, we propose Bayesian networks as an innovative empirical approach to measure unfair inequalities. This methodology enhances our understanding of inequalities through structural learning algorithms, generating an inequality of opportunity index and, most importantly, shedding light on the structure of the underlying income formation process. We demonstrate how this proposal relates to established measurement methods through simulated data, and provide an application to five European countries to illustrate the potential of Bayesian networks in the context of measuring inequality of opportunity.
Abstract: The GC Wealth Project has launched an updated version of its data warehouse. Key improvements include new data concepts, refinements to the structure of existing databases, and expanded coverage of regions, countries, and time periods. Updates have been made to the sections on Wealth Topography, Wealth Inequality Trends, and Estate, Inheritance, and Gift Taxes (EIG). Furthermore, a new section dedicated to Inheritance Trends is scheduled for release in the coming months.
Abstract: The GC Wealth Project, a central project of the Graduate Center's Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, is a multi-year effort aimed at expanding and consolidating access to the most up-to-date research and information on wealth, wealth inequalities, and wealth transfers and related tax policies, across countries and over time. The GC Wealth Project website — first launched in June 2023 — is organized around two main components: a data warehouse of gathered and novel data that can be visualized in a variety of ways through the interactive dashboard, and a Digital Library of Research on Wealth Inequality. Both are designed to provide researchers, policymakers, journalists, and others interested in wealth and wealth taxation with open, unlimited access to an array of high-quality information and resources. All of the data, including the tailored visualizations that users can create using the interactive dashboard, can be exported.
Abstract: Private wealth, as well as its distribution and intergenerational transmission have become much-debated issues. However, existing evidence remains fragmented, context-dependent, and sometimes contested. This data descriptor introduces the Graduate Center (GC) Wealth Project data warehouse, a collection of databases covering multiple countries and time periods, designed to address these challenges. The data warehouse consolidates most existing evidence on private wealth and undertakes a significant data harmonization effort. We supplement each data point with extensive metadata on methodology. The data warehouse features an extensive collection of information on the household wealth levels and balance sheets, along with distributional statistics from a wide range of sources. Moreover, it draws together data on wealth transfer tax revenues, and tax features such as rates, exemption thresholds, and tax schedules. The broad range of data sources in the warehouse allows users to assess the degree of heterogeneity of estimates, and how methodological choices affect measurement outcomes. The new data series and policy indicators also allow extending quantitative analysis of wealth and public policy.
Abstract: This paper investigates the link between individual low pay and household-level poverty risk in six major EU countries from 2006 to 2022. Drawing on EU-SILC microdata and a three-stage conceptual framework, we explore how low individual earnings relate to market and disposable income poverty, taking into account household composition and the redistributive effects of taxes and transfers. The incidence and the predictors of economic fragility are investigated through descriptive statistics and probit regressions focusing on the association between worker-level and household-level characteristics and low pay and poverty risks. We find that low pay does not necessarily imply poverty: a significant share of low-paid workers are not poor, due to income pooling within households or effective redistribution. However, the strength of these mechanisms varies between countries, depending on the structure of the household and the characteristics of welfare systems. Redistribution seems to be more effective in Ireland and Sweden, while Southern EU countries exhibit weaker protection for low-paid workers and a strong influence of the pension system.
Abstract: Drawing on a matched survey–administrative dataset tracking careers from 1975 to 2018, we examine the trends in intragenerational earnings mobility in Italy over the past 40 years. We compare earnings trajectories from age 35 to age 45 via a refined version of the ‘income risk decomposition’ proposed by Austin Nichols in 2008, distinguishing between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ earnings mobility from an individual welfare perspective. Our findings reveal that the long-run trend of increasing cross-sectional earnings inequality in Italy has been accompanied by widening persistent disparities within the same generation. For all cohorts of workers, at least 80% of inequality is permanent, reaching nearly 90% for the most recent cohort. We also uncover that a substantial share of individuals — between 25% and 39% — do not benefit from stable upward income mobility during a crucial career phase. This issue has worsened over time, with the last ten cohorts experiencing higher income instability (+20.2%) and declining upward mobility (−34.7%), largely explained by the growing prevalence of atypical employment arrangements. Furthermore, using intragenerational Great Gatsby curves, we show that cohorts exposed to greater earnings inequality also face more persistent differences and reduced earnings growth, especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession.
Abstract: The work compares across cohorts and different levels of education the early-stage evolution of several labour market outcomes, with the aim of studying whether and to what extent education matters for the level, growth and stability of earnings. By using a rich longitudinal dataset developed from merging survey and administrative data, this article describes the evolution of earnings in the five years following education completion in Italy comparing differently educated workers born between 1970 and 1984. We find evidence of an 'education premium' in terms of faster school-to-work transition, higher employability and higher earnings. Moreover, education is associated with positive, faster and more volatile earnings growth. However, no clear-cut changes across cohorts in the association between the various outcomes and the level of education emerge from our analysis.
Abstract: The economic literature provides evidence that standard demographic characteristics and human capital variables explain at most one third of wage inequality in Mincerian earnings equations. This work explores the unexplained inequality by using Italian linked employer-employee data from 1998 to 2016. I provide evidence that, from the end of the 1990s to 2016, the type of contract became increasingly important in explaining wage inequality, especially annual and weekly, but around 70% of annual earnings inequality, and 40% of weekly and hourly wages remain unexplained by observable characteristics. My results suggest that part of the unexplained variance is due to differences between the firms in which the workers are employed, but the largest contribution remains workers’ unobserved heterogeneity.
This thesis stems from research work I carried out in various universities and institutions to provide new perspectives on the analysis of mobility in different research contexts. The first two chapters deal with earnings mobility and its association with inequality (Chapter 1) and polarization (Chapter 2), while the third chapter is concerned with geographical mobility in response to labour market shocks (Chapter 3). In all three cases, the focus of the analysis is on the Italian labour market. However, while the first and last works are applied in nature, the second one is a theoretical paper whose application is instrumental to understanding the theory and demonstrating its empirical relevance.
Abstract: The report investigates the role played by the middle class in Italy over the last decades, in comparison with other European countries, using various proxies of economic well-being (i.e. individual labour income, equivalised disposable income, wealth), and exploiting various cross-sectional and longitudinal sources (i.e. AD-SILC, EU-SILC, SHIW). Adopting an economic definition of the middle class, based on individual positions with respect to median positions in the income scale, we first assess how the relative weight of the middle class – in terms of population share and share of total income – has evolved over time, and then use longitudinal data to explore mobility in and out of the middle class.