Forecast

This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.

On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable. In those instances, an alternative estimate of the solar wind forcing, based on the current Kp geomagnetic index is used to drive the OVATION model. When this occurs, there is no forecast lead time.

Forecast

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In 2011, NOAA (NCEI and SWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora. Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts.

EU GDP growth is revised up to 1.0% in 2023 (from 0.8%) and 1.7% in 2024 (from 1.6%), virtually closing the gap with potential output by the end of the forecast horizon (see Special Issue I.4.1). Upward revisions for the euro area are of a similar magnitude, with GDP growth now expected at 1.1% and 1.6% in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Inflation also surprised again to the upside, and it is now expected at 5.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 in the euro area, respectively 0.2% and 0.3% higher than in winter.

Employment growth is still forecast at 0.5% in the EU this year. In 2024, employment is set to keep growing moderately (0.4%), implying a less job-rich growth than in 2022. The unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its historical low, at 6.2%, in the EU in 2023, before edging down to 6.1% in 2024.

The primary objective of the National Operational Coastal Modeling Program (NOCMP) is to develop and operate a national network of Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems (called OFS) to support NOAA's mission goals and priorities. An OFS consists of the automated integration of observing system data streams, hydrodynamic model predictions, product dissemination and continuous quality-control monitoring. State-of-the-art numerical hydrodynamic models driven by real-time data and meteorological, oceanographic, and/or river flow rate forecasts will form the core of these end-to-end systems. The OFS will perform nowcast and short-term (0 hr. - 48 hr.) forecast predictions of pertinent parameters (e.g., water levels, currents, salinity, temperature, waves) and disseminate them to users.

Nowcasts and forecasts are scientific predictions about the present and future states of water levels (and possibly currents and other relevant oceanographic variables, such as salinity and temperature) in a coastal area. These predictions rely on either observed data or forecasts from a numerical model. A nowcast incorporates recent (and often near real-time) observed meteorological, oceanographic, and/or river flow rate data. A nowcast covers the period of time from the recent past (e.g., the past few days) to the present, and it can make predictions for locations where observational data are not available. A forecast incorporates meteorological, oceanographic, and/or river flow rate forecasts and makes predictions for times where observational data will not be available. A forecast is usually initiated by the results of a nowcast.

The National Ocean Service's Operational Data Acquisition and Archiving System (ODAAS) acquires, subsets and archives real-time observations and the National Weather Service's (NWS) forecast model guidance in support the suite of real-time nowcast/forecast systems listed below. Below, click on each OFS region to display or close a list of OFS.

NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS) has upgraded its Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS). The new higher resolution CBOFS is now based on a three-dimensional ROMS model that runs on NOAA's High Performance Computers (HPC). In addition to providing water level nowcast and forecast guidance, the new CBOFS now also provides currents, water temperature and salinity as well as interpolated winds from National Weather Service products. CBOFS runs four times per day and generates 6-hour nowcasts and 48-hour forecast guidance. CBOFS products include time series graphics at station locations and aerial animations of the whole Chesapeake Bay for all five parameters (wind, water level, currents, temperature and salinity).

NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS) has developed a Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System (DBOFS). DBOFS is based on a three-dimensional ROMS model that runs on NOAA's High Performance Computers (HPC). DBOFS provides water level, currents, water temperature and salinity nowcast and forecast guidance as well as interpolated winds from National Weather Service products. DBOFS runs four times per day and generates 6-hour nowcasts and 48-hour forecast guidance. DBOFS products include time series graphics at station locations and aerial animations of the whole Delaware Bay for all five parameters (wind, water level, currents, temperature and salinity).

NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS) has developed a Gulf of Maine Operational Forecast System (GoMOFS). Based on Rutgers University's Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), this OFS is to forecast water levels, currents, temperature and salinity for Gulf of Maine and its adjacent coastal area. The forecasts, which extend out to 72 hours, will support the maritime user community in navigation, emergency response, ecological forecasts and so forth. GoMOFS runs on NOAA's High Performance Computers (HPC) in a new Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) developed by CO-OPS. As a result, GoMOFS has direct access to National Weather Service operational meteorological products that it needs to run reliably.

NOS created the Port of New York and New Jersey Operational Forecast System (NYOFS) to provide the maritime community with improved short-term predictions of water levels and currents in the Port of New York and New Jersey. Be advised that these predictions are based on a hydrodynamic model and, as such, should be considered as computer-generated forecast guidance.

NOS created the St. John's River Operational Forecast System (SJROFS) to provide the maritime community with improved short-term predictions of water levels and currents in St. John's River. Be advised that these predictions are based on a hydrodynamic model and, as such, should be considered as computer-generated forecast guidance.

NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS) has upgraded the existing Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS, NEGOFS, and NWGOFS) to the new Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS2) which extends the model domain to cover Lower Mississippi River, Barataria Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Corpus Christi Bay, and Mexican coastal water without sacrificing model resolutions. NGOFS2 is the same hydrodynamic model of a three-dimensional FVCOM. NGOFS2 runs 4 time per day and provides water levels, currents, water temperature and salinity nowcast and forecast guidance out to 48 hours for the northern Gulf of Mexico including nine ports at Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Neches, Calcasieu/Lake Charles, Gulfport, Pascagoula Bay, Mobile Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, and Lake Pontchartrain.

NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS) has developed a Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System (TBOFS). TBOFS is based on a three-dimensional ROMS model that runs on NOAA's High Performance Computers (HPC). TBOFS provides water level, currents, water temperature and salinity nowcast and forecast guidance as well as interpolated winds from National Weather Service products. TBOFS runs four times per day and generates 6-hour nowcasts and 48-hour forecast guidance. TBOFS products include time series graphics at station locations and aerial animations of the whole Tampa Bay for all five parameters (wind, water level, currents, temperature and salinity).

NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS) collaborated with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in developing and transitioning the new generation of Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS) to operations. The upgraded LEOFS uses the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) as its core circulation model and has extended the forecast horizon to 120 hours. It will provide higher-resolution forecast guidance of water level, currents and water temperature to support the maritime user community in navigation, emergency response, ecological forecasts and so forth.

NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS) collaborated with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in developing and transitioning the Lake Michigan and Huron Operational Forecast System (LMHOFS) to operations, to provide higher-resolution forecast guidance of water level, currents and water temperature. The upgraded LMHOFS, combining Lake Michigan and Lake Huron into one model grid, uses the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) as its core ocean circulation model and has extended the forecast horizon to 120 hours. It is expected to generate a more accurate model output than the former LMOFS and LHOFS, which have separate model domains based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM).

NOS created the Lake Ontario Operational Forecast System (LHOFS) to provide the maritime community with improved short-term predictions of water levels and currents in the Lake Ontario. Be advised that these predictions are based on a hydrodynamic model and, as such, should be considered as computer-generated forecast guidance.

NOS created the Lake Superior Operational Forecast System (LSOFS) to provide the maritime community with improved short-term predictions of water levels and currents in the Lake Superior. Be advised that these predictions are based on a hydrodynamic model and, as such, should be considered as computer-generated forecast guidance. 2351a5e196