Next Seminar:

Rodolfo Maino, Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund 

2026-11-02, Monday, 11:40-12:40 (Budapest time)  

Institute of Finance - Room E.279.1. (Corvinus main building E, second floor)  

Title: Potential Output and the Cycle––Three modeling approaches in one tool

Abstract: Potential output is unobserved, yet its assessment is central to macroeconomic policymaking. This seminar presents an integrated Excel-based tool that brings together three complementary approaches to estimating potential output: (i) the multivariate filter, which distinguishes persistent shifts in potential from transitory cyclical movements; (ii) an extended production-function approach, including a dynamic system that uses expenditure data to infer latent supply conditions; and (iii) a New Keynesian small open-economy model with Calvo price and wage setting. Applications to the United States, Sri Lanka, and Colombia will illustrate how these approaches can inform macroeconomic analysis and policy.

• Read Dr. Rodolfo Maino’s publications: https://www.scilit.com/scholars/29787792

• Consult the schedule of upcoming seminars:  https://sites.google.com/view/finance-seminars/schedule   

Please note that this Microsoft Teams link is provided only for those unable to attend the seminar in person at Corvinus University of Budapest, Institute of Finance, E.279.1. The seminar will generally be held offline.

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