Working Papers

“Would the Euro Area Benefit from Greater Labor Mobility?” (with Vasco Cúrdia), FRBSF Working Paper 2024-06.

“Demographics and Real Interest Rates across Countries and over Time” (with Carlos Carvalho, Andrea Ferrero and Felipe Mazin), FRBSF Working Paper 2023-32.

“Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms” (with Galina Hale and John Leer), FRBSF Working paper 2023-02. 

“Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy” (with Carlos Carvalho and Eric Hsu), FRBSF Working paper 2016-06.

 “Monetary Policy and Real Exchange rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models” (with Carlos Carvalho and Fang Yao), FRBSF Working Paper 2014-17.

“Shocks to Firms” (with Mary C. Daly, John G. Fernald, and Òscar Jordà), FRBSF Working Paper 2013-32.

“Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models with Capital” (with Carlos Carvalho), FRBSF Working Paper 2012-08.

“Foreign Stock Holdings: The Role of Information”, FRBSF Working Paper 2010-06. 

Published Articles

“Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience” (with Carlos Carvalho), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2023.

“Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic” (with Òscar Jordà), European Economic Review, Volume 156, July 2023.

Working paper version: FRBSF Working paper 2022-17. 

“Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS” (with Carlos Carvalho and Tiago Tristão), Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 124, 140-154.

Working paper version: FRBSF Working paper 2018-11, Online Appendix.

“Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities” (with Bart Hobijn and Adam Shapiro), Journal of International Economics, Volume 130, May 2021.

Working paper version: FRBSF Working paper 2019-13. 

“Inflation Globally” (with Òscar Jordà), in J. Gali and D. Saravia (eds.), Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy, Central Bank of Chile. 

Working paper version: FRBSF Working Paper 2018-15.

“Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution” (with Bart Hobijn), Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 17, Issue 3, June 2019, 799-833. 

Working paper version: FRBSF Working Paper 2015-17.

“Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models” (with Carlos Carvalho), Economics Letters 163, February 2018, 193-196. 

Working paper version: FRBSF Working paper 2017-12.

“Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities” (with Carlos Carvalho), Review of Economic Dynamics 22, October 2016, 208-222. 

Working paper version: FRBSF Working Paper 2013-31, Online Appendix.

“Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism” (with Carlos Carvalho and Andrea Ferrero), European Economic Review 88, September 2016, 208-226. 

Working paper version: FRBSF Working Paper 2016-05.

“Do People Understand Monetary Policy?” (with Carlos Carvalho), Journal of Monetary Economics 66, September 2014, 108-123. 

Working paper version: FRBSF Working Paper 2012-01.

“Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,” (with Mary C. Daly, John G. Fernald, Òscar Jordà), National Institute Economic Review 228, May 2014, R58-R64. 

Working paper version: FRBSF Working Paper 2014-11.

“Aggregation and the PPP Puzzle in a Sticky-Price Model” (with Carlos Carvalho), American Economic Review 101(6), October 2010, 2391-2424. 

Working paper versions: FRBSF Working Paper 2010-06 and (earlier) FRBNY Staff Report 351.

FRBSF Publications

“The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2023-27, October 17, 2023 (with Òscar Jordà and Zoë Arnaut-Hull).

“Wage Growth when Inflation is High,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-25, September 6, 2022 (with Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes).

“Why is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-07, March 28, 2022 (with Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes).

“The Brexit Price Spike,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-20, August 5, 2019 (with Neil Gerstein, Bart Hobijn, and Adam Shapiro).

“Why is Inflation Low Globally?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-19, July 15, 2019 (with Òscar Jordà, Chitra Marti, and Eric Tallman).

“Inflationary Effects of Trade Disputes with China,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-07, February 25, 2019 (with Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn and Doris Wilson). 

“Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-05, February 11, 2019 (with Òscar Jordà, Chitra Marti, and Eric Tallman).

“How Much Do We Spend on Imports?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-01, January 7, 2019 (with Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, and Doris Wilson).

“Demographic Transition and Low U.S. Interest Rates,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2017-27, September 25, 2017 (with Carlos Carvalho and Andrea Ferrero). 

"How Important Is the Information from FOMC Minutes?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-37, December 19, 2016 (with Daniel Wilson).

“Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-33, November 7, 2016 (with Glenn Rudebusch).

“Fed Communication: Words and Numbers,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-26, September 6, 2016 (with Rebecca Regan).

“Fed Policy Liftoff and Emerging Markets,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-22, July 18, 2016 (with Julia Bevilaqua).

“Fed Communication and the Zero Lower Bound,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-21, July 11, 2016 (with Carlos Carvalho and Eric Hsu).

“Finding Normal: Natural Rates and Policy Prescriptions,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-22, July 6, 2015 (with Mary C. Daly and Ben Pyle).

“Have Long-Term Inflation Expectations Declined?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-11, April 06, 2015.

“Mixed Signals: Labor Markets and Monetary Policy,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-36, December 01, 2014 (with Canyon Bosler and Mary C. Daly). 

“Household Expectation and Monetary Policy,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-18 July 11, 2016 (with Carlos Carvalho).

“Interpreting Deviations from Okun’s Law,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-12, April 21, 2014 (with Mary Daly, John G. Fernald, and Òscar Jordà).

“Fed Tapering News and Emerging Markets,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-06, March 3, 2014.

“Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2013-38, December 23, 2013 (with Mary C. Daly, John G. Fernald, and Òscar Jordà).

“Pricey Oil, Cheap Natural Gas, and Energy Costs,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-23, August 6, 2012 (with Galina Hale). 

“Are U.S. Corporate Bonds Exposed to Europe?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-17, June 4, 2012. (with Galina Hale and Elliot Marks).

“U.S. and Euro-Area Monetary Policy by Regions,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-06, February 27, 2012. (with Israel Malkin).

“Monetary Policy When One Size Does Not Fit All,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-18, June 13, 2011.

“Long-Run Impact of the Crisis in Europe: Reforms and Austerity Measures,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-07, March 7, 2011.

“The Greek Crisis: Argentina Revisited?,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-33, November 1, 2010. 

Non-Refereed Publications

“Brazil: Covid-19 and the road to recovery” (with Bruno Serra Fernandes), Monetary Policy and Central Banking in Covid Era, ed. Bill English, Kristin Forbes, Ángel Ubide, CEPR Press, June 2021.

“Política monetária e comunicação,” Opening Lecture 2021, Economics Department at PUC-Rio , March 9, 2021  (in Portuguese).

“The Sustainability Agenda at the BCB,” Opening remarks, September 8, 2020  (version in Portuguese).

“In conversation with,” Interview, Network for Greening the Financial System, June, 2020 

“The path-breakers duty,” Driving diversity, Gender Balance Index, OMFIF, 2020.

“Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in Brazil,” (with João Barata R.B. Barroso), BIS Papers, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, Volume 113, 55-65, Bank for International Settlements .

“Applying Lessons from First-Generation Students to Women in Economics,” Medium, March 18, 2019.

“Do people understand monetary policy?” (with Carlos Carvalho), VoxLacea, April 29, 2014 and LSE-USApp, May 19, 2014.