Publications
"Beyond Green Jobs Advancing Metrics and Modeling Approaches for a Changing Labor Market (with Penny Mealy, Joris Bucker and Camilla Knudsen). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 11262, 2025.
"Five frictions: Key labor market barriers to unlocking job growth in the green transition" (with Camilla Knudsen, Penny Mealy and Joris Bucker). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 11224, 2025.
“Skill and spatial mismatches for sustainable development in Brazil” (with Berryman, A.; et al. ). Revise and resubmit.
"Modelling induced innovation for the low-carbon energy transition: a menu of options" (with Pasqualino, R.; et al.). Environmental Research Letters. 19 073004, 2024.
"Using Data-driven Systems Mapping to Contextualize Complexity Economics Insights" (in Chen, P., Elsner, W., and Pyka, A. (Eds.)). Handbook of Complexity Economics, Routledge, 2024.
“Preference for Flexibility and Dynamic Consistency with Incomplete Preferences” (with Gil Riella), Theory and Decision, Nr. 90, p.171–181, 2021.
Refereeing
Nature Sustainability
Health Economics
Schmidt Sciences
Policy Instruments
National Plan for Financial Protection against Disasters in Mozambique (Lead author. With Mozambique Ministry of Economy and Finance and National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction), approved in June 2022.
Risk Assessment for the Civil Defense and Protection Plan of the Santa Catarina State, Brazil. (with Schadeck, R.; et al), Santa Catarina State Government and FAPESC, approved in April 2023.
Published Policy Reports and Working Papers
“Twin Convergence – Economic and Social Convergence in Brazil’s Northeast”(with Shireen Mahdi and others). Forthcoming.
“Evaluating the Impacts and Effects of the Floods in Rio Grande do Sul”. IBRD, IDB, ECLAC, Rio Grande do Sul State Government, and Brazil Federal Government, 2024.
“Angola Disaster Risk Financing Diagnostic” (with Ndlovu, Q.; et al.), World Bank Group and Government of Angola, 2024.
"Modelling Labour Market Transitions: The case of productivity shifts in Brazil" (with Berryman, A.; et al.), EEIST (UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero and Children's Investment Fund Foundation), 2023.
"New Economic Models of Energy Innovation and Transition: Addressing New Questions and Providing Better Answers" (with Barbrook-Johnson, P.; et al.), EEIST (UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero and Children's Investment Fund Foundation), 2023.
"Angola Country Climate and Development Report" (with Tall, A.;et al.), World Bank Group and Government of Angola, 2022.
"Using Data-driven Systems Mapping to Contextualise Complexity Economics Insights" (with Pete Barbrook-Johnson), INET Oxford Working Paper No. 2022-27, 2022.
“Financial Protection against Disasters in Mozambique” (with Matera, M.; et al.), World Bank Group and Government of Mozambique, 2018.
"Droughts in Angola 2012 - 2016" (with Aja, J; et al.), Angola National Commission for Civil Protection (CNPC), UNDP, European Union and the World Bank, 2017.
“Santa Catarina: Disaster Risk Profiling for Improved Natural Hazards Resilience Planning” (with Dalotto, R.A.S.; et al.), World Bank Group, 2017.
“Disaster Risk Finance Country Note: Armenia” (with Dube, T.; et al.), World Bank Group, 2017.
“Serbia 2014 Floods: Damage and Loss Assessment” (with Javel, R.; et al.), World Bank Group, United Nations, European Commission, and Government of Serbia, 2014.
“Coping with Losses: Options for Financial Protection against Natural Disasters in Brazil” (with Pedroso, F. F.; Toro, J.), World Bank Group, 2013.
“2011 Rio de Janeiro State Flash Floods and Landslides: Damage and Loss Assessment” (with Pedroso, F. F.; Toro, J.), World Bank Group, 2012.
“2010 Pernambuco State Flash Floods: Damage and Loss Assessment” (with Pedroso, F. F.; Toro, J.), World Bank Group, 2012.
“2010 Alagoas State Flash Floods: Damage and Loss Assessment” (with Pedroso, F. F.; Toro, J.), World Bank Group, 2012.
“2008 Santa Catarina State Flash Floods and Landslides: Damage and Loss Assessment” (with Pedroso, F. F.; Toro, J.), World Bank Group, 2012.
Work in progress
Data-driven systems mapping: energy transitions and the Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil (with Pete Barbrook-Johnson)
This project investigates the potential for synergies and the possibility of trade-offs between diversifying green energy and achieving other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Brazil. We use a range of network estimation methods (e.g. correlation thresholding, PC algorithm, CCM, and IOTA) to map networks of SDG indicators and apply objective and subjective network analysis to interpret the maps and obtain policy relevant insights.
The Heterogeneous Effects of Reelection Incentives: Evidence from Brazil (draft available upon request)
Water scarcity in the Brazilian Semiarid area causes negative short and long-terms impacts on well-being and on a range of health and socio-economic outcomes of children and adults. Several interventions have been implemented in the region to mitigate the effects of droughts. In this paper I study how political institutions affect policies targeting dry areas in the Northern Brazil. Specifically, I investigate the relationship between career concerns of incumbent mayors and the provision of public goods targeting groups vulnerable to droughts. I exploit close elections in a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of reelection incentives on the provision of public water wells, conditional on measures of precipitation. I find that the provision of water wells in municipalities with first-term mayors is higher on average than in cities where mayors face term limits, as long as the frequency of dry years is sufficiently high.
Gender Gaps in Parliament: Access to Public Funds by Legislators in Brazil (draft available upon request)
Women’s representation in national parliaments has been increasing at a slow pace. Besides facing barriers to entry into politics, once in office women have slower career progression than men. This paper (i) documents gender gaps in access to public funds strategically used by incumbent legislators for reelection purposes in Brazil and (ii) studies the role of political parties in explaining these gaps. I exploit party switching in Brazil’s multiparty system and estimate a two-way fixed effect model to decompose the gender gaps into components attributable to party and individual heterogeneity. I find that selection into high support parties can play a distributive role and partially offset disadvantages in individual influence of women. This pattern of negative assortative matching is correlated to ideology. The large increase in the gender gap after 2015 is mainly explained by the loss of individual influence of women in left wing parties, but this deterioration was partially compensated by high levels of party support.