Penn Wharton Budget Model
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
3440 Market Street, Suite 300
Philadelphia, PA 19104
felixrei at wharton dot upenn dot edu
Senior Economist; Lead, OLG Modeling Group, 2017–Present
Penn Wharton Budget Model, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania | Philadelphia, PA (remote)
Lead the organization’s overlapping-generations (OLG) modeling group and direct the research and technical development of a large-scale computational model integrating household behavior, healthcare, the federal budget, and the macroeconomy. Set the group’s research agenda and oversee model design, data development, calibration, validation, policy simulations, and the production of research findings. Conduct applied economic research on how federal policies affect economic growth, wages, labor supply, household welfare, health outcomes, insurance decisions, and the federal budget. Develop rigorous testing and evaluation methods to assess model performance, diagnose failure modes, and ensure results are empirically grounded and economically coherent. Collaborate with economists, software developers, and policy experts, using Python, large-scale datasets, and high-performance CPU and GPU computing to translate complex policy questions into reproducible quantitative analysis.
Chief, Fiscal Policy Studies Unit, 2016–2017
Macroeconomic Analysis Division, Congressional Budget Office | Washington, DC
Led a team of Ph.D. economists and analysts responsible for evaluating the macroeconomic and budgetary effects of federal fiscal policies through dynamic scoring. Directed the development, validation, and application of economic models used to estimate how policy changes affect economic growth, labor income, interest rates, and the federal budget. Set the unit’s research agenda, identified methodological and empirical questions requiring further study, and guided staff in designing analyses and producing technical reports. Established standards for analytical rigor and reviewed economic assumptions, methodologies, model results, and research products across CBO. Conducted independent economic research and managed the unit’s recruiting, staff development, and performance-evaluation activities.
Principal Analyst, 2011–2016
Macroeconomic Analysis Division, Congressional Budget Office | Washington, DC
Conducted applied economic research and quantitative policy analysis on fiscal stimulus, deficit reduction, unemployment insurance, minimum-wage policy, immigration, and generational accounting. Developed analytical frameworks for evaluating complex policy proposals, assessed their effects on the macroeconomy and federal budget, and translated technical findings into clear reports for policymakers and other stakeholders. Received the 2014 CBO Director’s Award for analyzing the economic effects of the Senate’s 2013 comprehensive immigration legislation (S. 744).
Manager, 2009–2010
Analysis Group, Inc. | Washington, DC
Led multidisciplinary teams conducting economic analyses for intellectual-property, antitrust, and commercial litigation. Translated complex and often ambiguous legal and business questions into structured analytical frameworks, directed quantitative and qualitative research, evaluated economic evidence, and produced rigorous expert reports. Managed projects spanning the chemical, pharmaceutical, financial-services, and semiconductor industries.
Associate, 2007–2009
Analysis Group, Inc. | Washington, DC
Conducted economic and financial analyses for intellectual-property, antitrust, and commercial litigation. Identified key economic questions, developed quantitative models and analytical frameworks, analyzed complex qualitative and quantitative evidence, and helped produce expert reports in collaboration with academic and industry specialists.
Ph.D., Department of Economics, Stanford University (2002-2007)
M.A., Department of Economics, Stanford University (2002-2005)
M.S., Department of Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University (2001-2002)
B.A. with Honors in Economics and a Minor in Mathematics, Stanford University (1998-2002)
TD Ameritrade Institutional Best Paper Award for Behavioral Finance (2019)
TIAA Paul A. Samuelson Award For Outstanding Scholarly Writing on Lifelong Financial Security (2016)
CBO Director’s Award for Outstanding Achievement, Congressional Budget Office (2014)
Fellow, Summer Institute on Computational Economics, Chicago-Argonne (2006)
Graduate Fellowship, Department of Economics, Stanford University (2002-2003)
NCAA Postgraduate Scholarship (2002)
NCAA Fencing Champion (1999, 2000); Junior World Cup Champion (1997); Junior World Fencing Champion (1997)
“The Economic and Fiscal Impact of STEM Immigration in General Equilibrium” with Alexander Arnon, Duncan Haystead, Germán Sánchez Sánchez, Kent A. Smetters, and Jesús Villero, PWBM Working Paper W2026-1, July 2026, available here.
“Financing Medicare Expansion in the U.S.” with Kent Smetters, Working Paper (2021).
“What Drives Investors to Chase Returns?” with Jonathan Huntley and Valentina Michelangeli, Bank of Italy Working Paper 1334, April 2021, available here.
"Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply: A Review" (with Charles Whalen), Eastern Economic Journal, Winter 2017, 43(1): 37-42, available here.
"The Costs to Different Generations of Policies That Close the Fiscal Gap," with Shinichi Nishiyama, CBO Working Paper 2015-10, December 2015, available here.
“Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality and Correlated Longevity Costs,” with Kent Smetters, American Economic Review, November 2015, 105(11): 3273-3320, available here.
“The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States,” with Charles Whalen, Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2015, 33(4): 735-746, available here.
“Optimal Unemployment Insurance in Labor Market Equilibrium when Workers Can Self-Insure,” Working Paper (2007), available here.
2026
“The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Uncapping STEM Green Cards,” August 11, 2026, available here.
2025
“Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects,” July 28, 2025, available here. [CNN]
“Senate Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects,” July 1, 2025, available here.
“The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill: Illustrative Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects with Permanence,” May 28, 2025, available here.
“Debt, Tariffs, and Capital Markets in a Dynamic Setting: An Explainer,” May 23, 2025, available here.
“The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects,” May 23, 2025, available here.
“House Reconciliation Bill: Illustrative Calculations with Permanence (May 20, 2025),” May 20, 2025, available here.
“House Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects (May 19, 2025),” May 19, 2025, available here.
“Budget Reconciliation Options with Permanent Business Tax Extenders,” May 5, 2025, available here.
“The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs,” April 10, 2025, available here.
“Shifting Immigration Toward High-Skilled Workers,” March 27, 2025, available here. [Axios]
“The FY2025 House Budget Reconciliation and Trump Administration Tax Proposals: Budgetary, Economic, and Distributional Effects,” February 27, 2025, available here.
“Eliminating Income Taxes on Social Security Benefits,” February 10, 2025, available here.
2024
“Principles-Based Illustrative Reforms of Federal Tax and Spending Programs,” December 4, 2024, available here. [Washington Post, New York Times]
“Authorizing Medicare and Medicaid to Cover Anti-Obesity Medication,” November 27, 2024, available here. [Wall Street Journal]
“Taxing Foreign Affiliates of U.S.-Domiciled Firms,” October 15, 2024, available here.
“Computer Sector Investment Tax Incentives: Economic and Budgetary Effects,” October 14, 2024, available here.
“The 2024 Harris Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic and Distributional Effects,” August 26, 2024, available here.
“The 2024 Trump Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic and Distributional Effects,” August 26, 2024, available here.
“President Biden’s FY2025 Budget Proposal: Budgetary and Economic Effects,” May 22, 2024, available here.
“The Budgetary and Economic Effects of permanently extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s expiring provisions,” May 22, 2024, available here.
“Policy Options for Reducing the Federal Debt: Spring, 2024,” April 22, 2024, available here.
2023
“A Wide Range of Policy Bundles Can Stabilize Federal Debt while Growing the Economy,” September 29, 2023, available here.
“President Biden's Proposal to Extend the Medicare Trust Fund,” March 10, 2023, available here.
2022
“President Biden’s FY2023 Budget Proposal: Budgetary and Economic Effects,” April 14, 2022, available here.
“Medicare Advantage Auto-Enrollment,” March 7, 2022, available here.
2021
“The Macroeconomic Effects of the August 2021 Senate Budget Reconciliation Package,” September 9, 2021, available here.
“PWBM Budget Contest: Privately-Organized Universal Health Insurance in the U.S.,” February 9, 2021, available here.
2020
“Biden’s Healthcare Proposals,” October 7, 2020, available here.
“Dynamic Distributional Analysis of the Biden Platform,” September 25, 2020, available here.
“PWBM Analysis of the Biden Platform,” September 14, 2020, available here [Bloomberg, Forbes, New York Times, The Hill, Wall Street Journal]
“Senator Sanders' Medicare For All (S.1129): An Integrated Analysis,” with Kent Smetters, January 30, 2020, available here.
“Medicare For All: Comparison of Financing Options,” with Kent Smetters, January 30, 2020, available here.
“How CBO Analyzes the Effects of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies on the Economy,” Background Paper, November 2014, available here.
“How the Supply of Labor Responds to Changes in Fiscal Policy,” CBO Background Paper (October 2012), available here.
“Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply,” with Charles Whalen, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2012-13 (October 2012), available here.
“Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies,” with Charles Whalen, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2012-08 (May 2012), available here.
“How CBO Analyzes the Economic Effects of Changes in Federal Subsidies for Education and Job Training,” CBO Blog Post (May 2017), available here.
“How Economic Changes Affect CBO’s Budget Projections,” CBO Blog Post (April 2017), available here.
“How Eliminating the Automatic Spending Reductions Specified by the Budget Control Act Would Affect the U.S. Economy in 2014,” Letter to the Honorable Chris Van Hollen, Ranking Member of the House Budget Committee (July 2013), available here.
“Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary Paths,” CBO Report (February 2013), available here.
“Economic Effects of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013,” CBO Report (November 2012), available here.
“Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013,” May 2012 (Analysis of the 2013 Fiscal Cliff), available here.
“The Macroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of an Illustrative Policy for Reducing the Federal Budget Deficit,” July 2011 (As requested by Senators Kent Conrad and Jeff Sessions, Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee), available here.
“The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income,” CBO Report (February 2014), available here.
“The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market,” CBO Report (February 2014), available here.
“How Extending Certain Unemployment Benefits Would Affect Output and Employment in 2014,” Letter to the Honorable Chris Van Hollen, Ranking Member of the House Budget Committee (December 2013), available here.
“Unemployment Insurance in the Wake of the Recent Recession,” CBO Report (November 2012), available here.
“The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act,” CBO Report (June 2013), available here.
“How CBO Would Analyze the Economic Effects of Proposals to Make Major Changes in Immigration Policy,” Letter to the Honorable Paul Ryan (May 2013), available here.
“Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Enzi,” September 2017, available here.
“Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified in the Conference Report on the 2016 Budget Resolution,” April 2015, available here.
“Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Enzi, March 2015 (Senate),” available here.
“Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Price, March 2015 (House),” available here.
“Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan, April 2014 (House),” available here.
An Analysis of the President’s 2018 Budget, July 2017, available here.
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the President’s 2017 Budget, June 2016, available here.
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the President’s 2016 Budget, August 2015, available here.
The Economic Impact of the President's 2015 Budget, July 2014, available here.
The Economic Impact of the President's 2013 Budget, April 2012, available here.
“The Budget and Economic Outlook,” CBO Report (Recurring annually), available for February 2014, February 2013, August 2012, January 2012, August 2011.
The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2013, available here.
Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output, available for February 2015, February 2014, February 2013, November 2012, August 2012, May 2012, February 2012, November 2011, August 2011, May 2011, February 2011.