As a PhD researcher in Economics, I focus on policy evaluation. I work with micro and macro data to empirically assess the effectiveness of existing regulations/schemes by examining their environmental, developmental and labour market impact.
The main motivation behind my work is that economic growth has caused serious challenges by deteriorating the global economic and environmental conditions, which now threatens to weaken prosperity. Countries in both the developed and developing world are still struggling with persistent high level of unemployment especially among youth, expanding fiscal deficits, environmental degradation and uncertainties in the global economic outlook. Nevertheless, a window of opportunity has begun to reshape the patterns of growth. Policy-makers have realized the necessity of a global transition towards an inclusive economy not only to address poverty and inequality issues but also to pave the way to a more sustainable global economy.
I am a member of the American Economic Association, European Association of Labor Economists, Royal Economic Society, International Association for Feminist Economics, Middle East Economic Association and European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
Publications
The paper analyses the ambiguous role of house prices and housing investment for unemployment dynamics. Whereas traditional models see an increase in house prices as a dynamic multiplier that contributes positively to business cycle swings, the paper considers additional transmission mechanisms via the competitiveness channel (wages) and productivity. As house prices rise, wages tend to follow in order to make up for the loss in real disposable income, which limits employment creation. In addition, with rising house prices, the relative size of the construction sector, a low-productivity industry ,tends to increase, lowering aggregate productivity growth, further dampening competitiveness. The paper estimates a stylised dynamic general equilibrium model with unemployment flows. Introducing different transmission mechanisms through which the housing market influences labour and macroeconomic dynamics, the size and direction of the housing market channel is being analysed. The estimation results show that housing shocks can have long-lasting negative effects on employment even though a housing boom can generate a short-lived stimulus on growth and employment. The paper also offers some policy advice simulating housing shocks under different types of structural reforms and macro-prudential regulation.
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WORKING PAPERS
Youth unemployment is high in MENA and many young people are excluded from the labor force. The lack of employment opportunities has generated social discontent. According to the 2017 Arab Youth Survey, 35 percent of youth reported unemployment as the biggest obstacle the region is facing. In addition, demographic trends imply that many young people will join the labor market every year in the near future, putting additional pressures on domestic labor markets. Our study uses the ILO School-to-Work Transition Survey (SWATS) conducted in 5 MENA countries (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia and West Bank and Gaza) around 2013-2015. We use a multinomial logistic model to estimate the determinants of youth integration into the labor market and generate probabilities of transitioning to different labor market outcomes depending on youth individual characteristics such as age, gender or the level of education. Our study contributes to better identify the unemployed and unoccupied in MENA and the determinants of their status. It can contribute to inform Fund’s work on policies to address constraints to youth inclusion and foster job creation and growth in MENA.
This paper explores factors that enhance job creation in the agricultural sector by focusing on the impact of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) transfers. The CAP was established to strengthen the agricultural sector and living standards of farmers across the EU. Using regional data on labour market outcomes and CAP payments for 24 EU countries over the period 2000-2008, I analyze the impact of two key reforms to the CAP program. The first reform is a shift from farmer subsidies that were linked to the production of particular types of crops and livestock, to subsidies that are linked to the number of hectares that farmers have in their lands, independent of the type of production. The second is the introduction of rural development subsidies. I estimate the impact of these different types of payments on regional outcomes using fixed effects techniques. I find that both reforms improved the share of agricultural employment. In addition, they increased the ratio of full-time to part-time workers, a sign of sustainability for the future. Finally, the impact of the CAP reforms is found to be similar across both Eastern Europe and the rest of Europe.
This paper investigates the extent to which voluntary information-based environmental policy improves both environmental performance and also income profitability of farmers. Specifically, this study examines the impact of "professional environmental advice" as a policy intervention to improve the effectiveness of the Entry Level Stewardship Scheme (ELS). Data provided by the Farm Business Survey is used to track farmers in England over the period of 2008-2010 who took "professional environmental advice". Using information on advice taken from the Farm Business Survey introduces the problem of selection bias. As a result, this study has relied on panel fixed effect at a farm level to control for this bias. In addition, this study has attempted to identify "peer pressure" as a relevant instrument to explain the probability that farmers seek "professional environmental advice". Our results show that professional environmental advice has a positive impact on income profitability of farmers; however there is a negative relation between advice and environmental output. Our instrumental variable is weak although its results are significant.
CONFERENCES and SEMINARS
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