Working Papers
Working papers
“Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth,” with Michael Dotsey and Wenli Li, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper 22-10
[Abstract]: We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that drives these dynamics is endogenous human capital accumulation, which depresses household savings between 1985 and 2010 but leads to substantial gains in per capita output growth after 2005.
Consumption and Hours between U.S. and France, with Lei Fang, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2021-7.
[Abstract]: We document large differences between the United States and France in allocations of consumption expenditures and time by age. Using a life-cycle model, we quantify to what extent tax and transfer programs and market and home productivity can account for the differences. We find that while labor efficiency by age and home-production productivity are crucial in accounting for the differences in the allocation of time, the consumption tax and social security are more important regarding allocation of expenditures. Adopting the US consumption tax decreases welfare in France, and adopting the US social security system increases welfare in France.
“Marriage and Work Among Prime Age Men”, with Adam Blandin and John Jones, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas No. 23-13
[Abstract]: Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. Panel data reveal that much of this gap is attributable to an increase in work in the years leading up to marriage. Two potential explanations for this increase are: (i) men hit by positive labor market shocks are more likely to marry; and (ii) the prospect of marriage increases men's labor supply. We quantify the relative importance of these two channels using a structural life-cycle model of marriage and labor supply. Our calibration implies that marriage substantially increases male labor supply. Counterfactual simulations suggest that if men were unable to marry, prime-age male work hours would fall by 7%, and if marriage rates fell to the extent observed, men born around 1980 would work 2% fewer hours than men born around 1960.
Work in Progress
“Couples, Singles, Bequests, and Policy” with Margherita Borella and Mariacristina De Nardi
“Consumption Insurance in China,” with Dan Yang
“Demographics, Automation, and Labor Mobility,” with Suqin Ge and Junsen Zhang
“Labor Supply of Married Household: a Gender Specific Analysis,” with Suqin Ge