Abstract

Ecosystems around the world are at risk of critical transitions due to increasing anthropogenic pressures

and climate change. Yet, it is unclear where the risks are higher or where in the world are ecosystems more

vulnerable. Here I measure resilience of primary productivity proxies for marine and terrestrial ecosystems

globally. Preliminary results show that up to 30% of global terrestrial ecosystem show symptoms of resilience

loss. These early warning signals affect all types of biomes, but by large Arctic and boreal forest are the most

affected. Despite our results are likely an underestimation, they enable the identification of risk areas as well

as the potential synchrony of some transitions. Mapping where ecosystems are likely to undergo critical

transitions or long transients can help prioritize areas for management interventions and conservation. Our

results pave the way towards developing an ecological resilience observatory.