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J.P. Morgan Research remains bearish on the euro, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) cuts interest rates sooner than the Fed. This will widen the interest rate gap between the U.S. and the Eurozone, putting downward pressure on the euro against the dollar.
Euro Dollar
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While the BoJ ended its negative interest rate policy in March, the market impact of this historic move was modest overall. On the back of the announcement, yen depreciation accelerated and USD/JPY adhered to a tight range of 151-152 for several weeks.
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Eurodollars are U.S. dollars held in time deposit accounts in banks outside the United States, which are not subject to the legal jurisdiction of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than deposits within the U.S.[citation needed] The term was originally applied to U.S. dollar accounts held in banks situated in Europe, but it expanded over the years to cover US dollar accounts held anywhere outside the U.S. Thus, a U.S. dollar-denominated deposit in Tokyo or Beijing would likewise be deemed a Eurodollar deposit (sometimes an Asiadollar). The offshore locations of the Eurodollar make it exposed to potential country risk and economic risk.[1]
There is no connection with the euro currency of the European Union. More generally, the euro- prefix can be used to indicate any currency held in a country where it is not the official currency, broadly termed "eurocurrency", for example, Euroyen or even Euroeuro.
After World War II, the quantity of physical U.S. dollar banknotes outside the United States increased significantly, as a result of both the dollar funding of the Marshall Plan and from dollar proceeds of European exports to the U.S., which had become the largest consumer market.
As a result, large amounts of U.S. dollar banknotes were in the custody of foreign banks outside the United States. Some foreign countries, including the Soviet Union, also had deposits in U.S. dollars in American banks, evidenced by certificates of deposit. Various narrations are given of the creation of the first eurodollar account, but most trace back to Communist governments keeping dollar deposits abroad.
In one version, the first eurodollar account was created in France in favour of Communist China, which in 1949 managed to move almost all of its U.S. dollar banknotes to the Soviet-owned Banque Commerciale pour l'Europe du Nord in Paris before the United States froze its remaining U.S. situated assets during the Korean War.[2]
In another version, the first eurodollar account was created by an English bank in favour of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, following the invasion of Hungary in 1956, as the Soviet Union feared that its deposits in North American banks would be frozen as a sanction. It therefore decided to move some of its U.S. dollars held directly in North American banks to the Moscow Narodny Bank, an English limited liability company registered in London in 1919, whose shares were owned by the Soviet Union. The English bank would then re-deposit the dollars into U.S. banks. Thus although in reality the dollars never left North America, there would be no chance of the U.S. confiscating that money, because now it belonged legally to the British bank and not directly to the Soviets, the beneficial owners. Accordingly, on 28 February 1957, the sum of $800,000 was duly transferred, creating the first eurodollars. Initially dubbed "Eurobank dollars" after the bank's telex address, they eventually became known as "eurodollars"[3] as such deposits were at first held mostly by European banks and financial institutions.[3] City of London banks, such as Midland Bank, now part of HSBC, and their offshore holding companies[4] also played a major role in holding the deposits.
In the mid-1950s, Eurodollar trading and its development into a dominant world currency began when the Soviet Union wanted better interest rates on their Eurodollars and convinced an Italian banking cartel to give them more interest than could have been earned if the dollars were deposited in the U.S. The Italian bankers then had to find customers ready to borrow the Soviet dollars and pay above the U.S. legal interest-rate caps for their use, and were able to do so; thus, Eurodollars began to be used increasingly in global finance.[2]
Being a riskier asset than dollars held directly in U.S. bank accounts, Eurodollars demand in compensation a higher interest rate. U.S. banks, which hold required reserve accounts at the U.S. Federal Reserve, can receive unlimited financial support from the Fed if necessary, and are thus unlikely to become bankrupt. Thus, U.S. dollar deposits in U.S. banks are inherently less risky than Eurodollar deposits in banks which have no possibility of financial support from the Fed.[5]
By the end of 1970, 385 billion eurodollars were held in offshore bank accounts.[6] These deposits were lent on as U.S. dollar loans to businesses in other countries where interest rates on loans were perhaps much higher in the local currency, and where the businesses were exporting to the U.S. and receiving payment in dollars, thereby avoiding foreign exchange risk on their funding arrangements. 152ee80cbc
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