The bitter side of sugarcane: Analyzing the commodity shock, mechanization and homicides in Brazil
Advisor: Ömer Özak
Advisor: Ömer Özak
Presented at the 2025 North Texas Economics Conference (NTxEC), Dallas, TX, November 15, 2025 (see presentation slides ⧉)
This study employs two complementary Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models to analyze the dynamic relationships between the crude oil, sugar, and Brazilian ethanol markets.
Highlights:
◦ Negative oil supply and positive oil-specific demand shocks increase sugar and ethanol prices, with sugar exports acting as an adjustment variable.
◦ Demand-side shocks from the sugar and ethanol sectors are particularly influential across both markets.
◦ Oil market supply shocks are the main driver of long-term fluctuations in sugar price, sugar supply, and ethanol price.
◦ The cumulative price inflation in sugar and ethanol in recent decades is mainly attributed to the global demand shock
Figure: Historical decomposition of the price of sugar
Drilling for political outcomes: The electoral consequences of fracking in Colorado, Oklahoma and North Dakota
Advisor: Ömer Özak
Gappe Report (2020). Sponsor: Ministry of Citizenship, Brazil [in Portuguese]
Master's Dissertation. UFPE Institutional Repository (2020). Advisor: Paulo Henrique Vaz [in Portuguese]
Abstract: In this study, we examine whether shared experience affects a nation's political-economic perception by analyzing the impact of the results of matches played by Latin American national football teams in the 2018 World Cup. By linking individual survey data with the official matches of the national teams during the World Cup, between June and July 2018, we estimate that individuals interviewed within two days after their team's victory tend, on average, to be more approving of the current government and more satisfied with democracy in their country than those interviewed at other times. A relevant finding is that, as days pass after a victory, intolerance toward immigrants tends to increase. In the case of defeat, we did not find any statistically significant effects on these variables. Additionally, we restricted the samples to Latin American countries with a stronger football tradition — Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay — and the estimates revealed a more significant and lasting effect of victory on people's satisfaction with democracy in their countries. Another result obtained was that Argentines, Brazilians, and Uruguayans tend, on average, to report being more optimistic about the national economy and their household economy over the next 12 months when interviewed shortly after victorious matches. The results suggest that shared experience may serve as an effective political-social instrument for promoting a potentially distorted perception of a well-evaluated, democratic, and/or nationalist government.
Financial management and strategic planning with balanced scorecard: An introduction
Final academic project completed as part of the Postgraduate Specialization in Financial Administration. FCAP - UPE Institutional Repository (2017). [in Portuguese]
Abstract: This article presents an introductory theoretical overview of Financial Management and Strategic Planning using the Balanced Scorecard, aiming to provide essential concepts for individuals interested in corporate finance and strategic management. The intensification of globalization has transformed the business environment, demanding from corporations a new administrative paradigm - one capable of delivering competitive advantage and ensuring both sustainability and long-term viability. In this context, financial management aligned with a long-term strategic plan becomes central to the study of administrative sciences in addressing these emerging challenges. This work adopts a qualitative research approach and concludes that deepening one's understanding of corporate finance and strategic management equips organizations with the tools and practices necessary to achieve success in an increasingly competitive and globalized environment.