Abstract. We develop an econometric framework that bridges the structural and reduced-form literatures to study how trade shocks affect local labor markets. It translates the quantitative trade concept of market access into a tool for causal estimation of general-equilibrium effects. Guided by a multi-region, multi-sector model, we compute region–sector market access that embeds domestic input–output and competition linkages, estimate how it responds to Bartik-style trade shocks, and aggregate the resulting effects across regions and sectors using observed spatial links. Applying this framework to the China Shock, we quantify changes in market access across 722 U.S. commuting zones and 22 sectors, estimating domestic trade costs via infrastructure networks (rail, road, waterways, and air). Accounting for these spillovers reduces the estimated contraction in manufacturing employment by about 60% relative to partial-equilibrium estimates. While upstream contractions amplify the shock, reduced domestic competition redirects demand toward less-affected regions, where producers expand. By embedding general-equilibrium trade theory into a tractable econometric design, this framework offers a new tool for assessing the local labor-market effects of globalization.

Abstract. We investigate the impact of foreign aid on democratic engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on electoral participation and individual attitudes toward democracy. To understand how development aid affects turnout, we analyze subnational lower-house electoral data from 19 African countries, combined with a comprehensive dataset of World Bank and Chinese-funded projects spanning 2000–2021. Using a regression discontinuity design based on project completion timing relative to election dates, we find that the completion of aid projects before elections significantly reduces voter turnout. This decline may be driven by perceptions of foreign aid as a threat to national sovereignty rather than a tool for development. To further explore this, we plan to examine whether long-term exposure to aid projects erodes trust in local governments and shapes support for democracy using survey data from 34 African countries.