Working Papers
Working Papers
The Geography of Trade Shocks: Market Access and the Redistribution of Employment Losses
with Priyam Verma
[Draft available under request]
Presentations. PSE-CEPR Policy Forum (June 2026), RIEF Network (June 2026), 24th Annual GEP/CEPR (April, 2026), ADRES, Pantheon-Sorbonne (Jan 2026), Oldenburg Economics Department (November, 2025), UEA Montreal (Oct 2025), Economics of Global Interaction (Sept 2025)
Abstract. Guided by a quantitative trade model, we construct a market-access-based exposure measure that incorporates first-order general-equilibrium effects of shift-share trade shocks, and estimate its employment effects in reduced form. The trade shock first maps into local market access losses, which then propagate through observed domestic input–output and trade linkages to capture how upstream contractions transmit into downstream costs and how changes in competitors' market access redirect demand across regions. The resulting region-sector measure aggregates direct, input–output, and spatial competition channels into a single object, with coefficients directly comparable to standard Bartik regressions. We apply the approach to the China Shock across 722 U.S. commuting zones and 22 sectors. First-order general-equilibrium propagation attenuates the average employment effect by 14 to 20 percent, but fundamentally reshapes its geographic incidence: rank correlations with the Bartik benchmark fall as low as 0.48, and 50 percent of region-sector pairs are reclassified as net winners. Only 16 percent of region-sector pairs fall in the same quartile under both measures, and 95 percent of those in the worst-affected GE quartile are missed by Bartik-based targeting. In a horse race, the structural classification absorbs the predictive content of the Bartik measure for realized employment and unemployment outcomes.
Previous title: General Equilibrium Effects of Trade Shocks: A Market Access Approach.
Trade and Protectionist Backlash: The Redistributive Role of Democracy
European Economic Review, Volume 185, May 2026, 105295
Presentations. CEPII (2025), Annual Research Conference, European Commission, Ispra, Italy (2024), ETSG (2024), EDGE Jamboree (2024), Bocconi Trade Tea seminars (2024), Bocconi Politics and Institutions seminar (2024), RIEF Bruxelles (2023), LAGV (2023), AMSE PhD seminar (2023), PSE trade summer school (2022), ADRES (2022), LAGV (2022), ASSET (2022), AMSE PhD seminar (2022)
From Ballots to Beliefs: Short- and Long-Term Effects of Development Projects
Violence, Trade and the Origins of Patriarchal Institutions
Offshoring, Technology Spillovers, and Comparative Advantage