Every Point Counts!
The EPC handicapper and rating estimator for table tennis matches
The EPC handicapper and rating estimator for table tennis matches
What: Reverse engineer the Sunrise 41 point handicap chart, and the David Marcus 51 point handicap chart to estimate players point win % estimates 🤔
Then: Use the point win estimates to calculate a match spread, play a match in any format (typically best 3 of 5 to 11), use the actual match total scores, the spread can then determine a handicap winner. Not suggested for gambling purposes 💸
Why: It's a more natural format for the players, and it can be used to play a handicap event and normal event with the same match data 🏓
Choose: If you prefer the old handicap table system 😝you can also get the starting handicap for the weaker player, for whatever game length you prefer
Bonus: If you have an unrated player, it can help estimate their rating after they complete matches against players with established ratings, even if they won all or lost all matches 💡
EPC Ratings: Properly tuned, EPC ratings could be superior to models based just on match wins and losses. Jeff Sagarin, who has been doing sports power ratings professionally for decades, named his pure point rating rating system "Predictor" because it is better at predicting future outcomes than his earlier work using just wins and losses! https://gemini.google.com/share/98d0f0af7684 ❤️
Sunrise 41 Calculator: Sunrise 41 ☀️
David Marcus 51 Calculator: David Marcus 51 💻
OP-ED: The Sunrise chart favors the stronger player, and the point cap comes at 1000 ratings points, it's more conducive to the stronger player playing their game rather than playing it safe. The Marcus chart is more accurate statistically and is preferable when the ratings are of high quality backed by lots of matches. This is rarely the case for casual club play, and from personal experience it's torture to give up 45 points in a 51 point game. Pick one calculator or the other, switching event by event is not ideal.
Notes: This is a proof of concept, and a work in progress, published 3/2/2026. No further work is planned at this time. Provided "As Is" this material is without warranties of accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose
Credits:
Sunrise Table Tennis: https://sunrisetabletennis.com/
David Marcus: https://www.davidmarcus.com/