Research

The Effect of Temperature on Fertility in an Industrialising Economy

This paper studies the relationship between temperature and fertility rates. Exploiting exogenous temperature variation across 81 French départements from 1851 to 1911, I examine how changes in income, driven by temperature variations, can lead to either a dominant income effect or substitution effect in fertility decisions. I find that a one standard deviation increase in temperature increases fertility by 19-31\%, corresponding to 4.7-7.5 additional births per 1,000 people. The climatic impact, driven specifically by growing season temperatures, is most pronounced in regions most reliant on agriculture. Higher temperatures negatively affect wheat prices, suggesting increased agricultural productivity. This temperature-price relationship is consistent with the hypothesis that income gains dominate substitution effects on fertility choices. Using a mediation analysis I rule out internal migration, infant mortality, and education as alternative mechanisms.

How Resilient was the Spanish Economy to Climate Shocks in the Early 20th Century? 

This paper studies the effect of temperature and rainfall shocks on GDP per capita in Spanish provinces from 1904 to 1934. We find that a 1\degree C increase in temperature reduces GDP per capita growth by 3.3-3.4 percentage points. The results reveal significant evidence of level effects rather than permanent growth effects, suggesting that the Spanish economy was resilient to temperature shocks in the short to medium run. The most arid regions in the south and south east experienced the largest negative effects of temperature shocks, with evidence that the effect in northern provinces is close to zero. The effects of temperature appear to primarily affect growth through the agricultural sector, although there is a small negative effect on the non-agricultural sectors. Surprisingly, we find no impact of precipitation shocks on GDP per capita. We suggest a number of possible explanations for this.

Rigidities, Persistence, and Cross-Sectoral Transmission: Climate and Wage Dynamics in Early 20th Century Spain

This paper examines how temperature shocks affect wages across nine occupations in early twentieth-century Spain using provincial wage data. I find three main results. First, temperature shocks have strong negative effects on wages that last up to five years, but cause little immediate wage change. Second, agricultural wages respond most strongly to temperature; among urban workers, builders experience the largest wage declines while stonemasons and shoemakers are least affected. Third, temperature effects are largest during peak (harvest) seasons—when urban workers migrated into agricultural labour—suggesting that climate shocks affect urban wages through seasonal labour movement and integrated rural and urban labour markets.

Migration Responses to Temperature Variation in Nineteenth-Century France

What role did temperature play in internal migration in 19th Century France? Using over 35,000 origin-destination department pairs across 5 decades, I find that higher origin temperature relative to destination has a negative effect on outward migration. The migration response of both men and women is large and robust. I find that the effect of temperature is strongest in the most agriculturally dependent departments, suggesting that agriculture is the primary mechanism.