Research

The Effect of Temperature on Fertility in an Industrialising Economy

This paper studies the relationship between temperature and fertility rates. Exploiting exogenous temperature variation across 81 French départements from 1851 to 1911, I examine how changes in income, driven by temperature variations, can lead to either a dominant income effect or substitution effect in fertility decisions. I find that a one standard deviation increase in temperature increases fertility by 19-31\%, corresponding to 4.7-7.5 additional births per 1,000 people. The climatic impact, driven specifically by growing season temperatures, is most pronounced in regions most reliant on agriculture. Higher temperatures negatively affect wheat prices, suggesting increased agricultural productivity. This temperature-price relationship is consistent with the hypothesis that income gains dominate substitution effects on fertility choices. Using a mediation analysis I rule out internal migration, infant mortality, and education as alternative mechanisms.

The Heterogeneity of Weather Effects on Provincial GDP in Spain, 1904-1934 

This paper studies the relationship between temperature and GDP per capita in Spanish provinces from 1904 to 1934. We find that a 1◦C increase in temperature reduces GDP per capita growth by 3.3-3.4 percentage points. Unlike modern studies of temperature’s effect on income, I find no evidence of growth effects and limited evidence of a permanent level effect. We suggest a number of possible explanations for this. The most arid regions in the south and south east experience the largest negative effects of temperature shocks, with evidence that the effect in northern provinces is close to zero. Surprisingly, we find no impact of precipitation shocks on GDP per capita. 

The Expansion of the Spanish Road Network and Climate Risk 1904-1934

This paper uses the expansion of the road network in early 20th Century Spain to study the effect of market integration and transport infrastructure on climate impacts. Preliminary results suggest that greater road access reduces the negative effects of higher temperature on provincial GDP. Greater road access also improves adaptation to local climate conditions, particularly via specialisation. The results suggest that trade can improve climate resilience by incentivising agriculture to better adapt to local climate conditions, thereby aligning with comparative advantage. The research shows that investment in transport infrastructure can help to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change.

Temperature and Migration in Nineteenth-Century France

What role did temperature play in internal migration in 19th Century France? Using over 35,000 origin-destination department pairs across 5 decades, I find that higher origin temperature relative to destination has a negative effect on outward migration. The migration response of both men and women is large and robust. I find that the effect of temperature is strongest in the most agriculturally dependent departments, suggesting that agriculture is the primary mechanism.