Research

The Effect of Temperature on Fertility in an Industrialising Economy

This paper studies the relationship between temperature and fertility rates. Exploiting exogenous temperature variation across 81 French départements from 1851 to 1911, I examine how changes in income, driven by temperature variations, can lead to either a dominant income effect or substitution effect in fertility decisions. I find that a one standard deviation increase in temperature increases fertility by 19-31\%, corresponding to 4.7-7.5 additional births per 1,000 people. The climatic impact, driven specifically by growing season temperatures, is most pronounced in regions most reliant on agriculture. Higher temperatures negatively affect wheat prices, suggesting increased agricultural productivity. This temperature-price relationship is consistent with the hypothesis that income gains dominate substitution effects on fertility choices. Using a mediation analysis I rule out internal migration, infant mortality, and education as alternative mechanisms.

The Spatial Heterogeneity of Weather Effects on Provincial GDP in Spain, 1904-1934 

(with Juan Carmona, UC3M)

This paper examines how weather shocks influenced regional economic development in Spain from 1904 to 1934. Using provincial-level annual GDP per capita data, preliminary evidence on the differential impacts of temperature and rainfall variations across Spanish regions. Annual temperature has a negative effect on GDP per capita across Spain, with the strongest negative impacts in arid regions and the weakest effects in north-western areas around Galicia. Seasonal analysis reveals that autumn and summer temperatures drive these effects. The impact of rainfall on economic outcomes shows substantial spatial heterogeneity. While annual rainfall generally reduces GDP per capita, this average effect masks important regional variation. Northern and north-western provinces experienced large negative effects from increased annual rainfall, while other regions showed minimal responses. Using seasonal analysis, arid regions benefited significantly from summer precipitation, while northern areas suffered negative effects. These findings align with historical evidence emphasizing summer rainfall's crucial role in Spanish agricultural productivity.  These preliminary results demonstrate the importance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity when analyzing weather-economy relationships, particularly for precipitation. The findings also highlight the limitations of relying solely on annual weather measures, as seasonal variations reveal distinct economic effects across regions. 

The Expansion of the Spanish Road Network and Climate Risk 1904-1934 

(with Juan Carmona, UC3M)

This paper uses the expansion of the road network in early 20th Century Spain to study the effect of market integration and transport infrastructure on climate impacts. Preliminary results suggest that greater road access reduces the negative effects of higher temperature on provincial GDP. Greater road access also improves adaptation to local climate conditions, particularly via specialisation. The results suggest that trade can improve climate resilience by incentivising agriculture to better adapt to local climate conditions, thereby aligning with comparative advantage. The research shows that investment in transport infrastructure can help to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change.

Temperature and Migration in Nineteenth-Century France

What role did temperature play in internal migration in 19th Century France? Using over 35,000 origin-destination department pairs across 5 decades, I find that higher origin temperature relative to destination has a negative effect on outward migration. The migration response of both men and women is large and robust. I find that the effect of temperature is strongest in the most agriculturally dependent departments, suggesting that agriculture is the primary mechanism.