Japan-China-Taiwan

Subsea critical minerals mining in China, Japan, and Taiwan centers on geopolitical competition, supply chain security, and deep-sea exploration trials in the Pacific Ocean. [1, 2, 3]

Japan's Deep-Sea Quest

• Minamitorishima Project: Japan is actively developing deep-sea mining capabilities to extract rare-earth-rich mud (containing yttrium, gadolinium, and dysprosium) from depths exceeding 5,500 to 6,000 meters within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near Minamitorishima Island (roughly 1,800–1,900 km southeast of Tokyo). [1, 2, 3]

• Milestones & Timeline: Led by JAMSTEC and SIP using the survey vessel Chikyu, a trial in early 2026 successfully extracted about 50 tons of rare earth mud. A full-scale mining test targeting 350 tons of mud daily is scheduled for February 2027, with commercialization goals targeted around 2028. [1, 2, 3]

• U.S. Alliance: Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with the U.S. Department of Commerce in March 2026 to collaborate on independent subsea mineral supply chains. [1]

• Geopolitical Driver: The push is a direct strategic counter to China's dominance over global rare earth mining (controlling roughly 60%) and refining/magnet manufacturing (over 90%), intensified by Chinese export restrictions on dual-use goods and rare earths following political tensions regarding Taiwan. [1, 2]

China's Subsea Exploration and Coercion

• Dominance & Controls: China controls the vast majority of global rare earth processing and has tightened export controls on key elements and dual-use materials (including actions in April 2025 and January 2026) as leverage in regional diplomacy. [1, 2]

• Oceanographic & Seabed Activity: Chinese state-owned research vessels, such as the Xiang Yang Hong 01, have mapped and explored western Pacific deep-sea mining areas. While China actively investigates polymetallic nodules and seafloor resources under international frameworks like the International Seabed Authority (ISA), its primary power lies in mid-stream refining and export dominance rather than just raw deep-sea extraction. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Taiwan's Position and Vulnerabilities

• Maritime Chokepoints: Taiwan and the surrounding Taiwan Strait represent a critical physical and political chokepoint for regional critical mineral trade and shipping routes, though Taiwan itself is not a major player in deep-sea mineral extraction. [1]

• Geopolitical Flashpoint: Tensions over Taiwan's status directly trigger economic retaliation from Beijing (such as export curbs on Japan when Japanese leadership addresses Taiwan contingencies), which in turn accelerates Tokyo's race toward autonomous subsea mineral sourcing. [1, 2]