The current pandemic highlighted the strategic role played by the healthcare sector, with the availability of qualified professionals being a key element. This paper explores the evolution in the supply of healthcare workers following the implementation of the Italian Budget Law 2010 (Law 191/2009 ), which introduces strict restrictions on the recruitment of healthcare professionals. Applying a Difference-in-Differences estimation based on policy intensity, I observe a significant reduction in the supply of healthcare workers where the policy has been more intense, which is particularly strong in the public sector and among the professional category of physicians. Districts that experience larger reductions in the supply of public-sector physicians do not exhibit large effects on access to care compared to the control group, while reporting significantly lower health outcomes. This effect does not seem to be related to limitations in the training capacity, which, on the contrary, increases over time during the period considered. The results raise serious redistributive and inequality issues, which still need to be addressed. After policy, the composition of physicians who are willing to migrate changes. Compared to the pre-policy period, physicians appear to be younger and more talented, with a larger prevalence of those who have not completed their specialization training yet. These pieces of evidence claim for more cautious interventions when economic resources reserved for the healthcare sector are at stake.
Keywords: Physicians' Migration, Budget Law, Public Health
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