Welcome to my page!
I am a research economist at the Central Bank of Ireland and a research associate with the Finance Research Group at KU Leuven, Belgium.
My research focuses on Monetary Policy, Macro-Finance, and Banking.
For more information please refer to my CV.
Research Collaboration Unit
North Wall Quay, North Dock, Dublin, Ireland
email: elizaveta.lukmanova[at]centralbank.ie
Working Papers:
presented at: 9th Annual Workshop of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) – Research Cluster 3, Bundesbank, Frankfurt, Nov 2025, ChaMP Special NBFI Workshop, SAFE, Frankfurt, Nov 2025, 2nd SAFE-CEPR Frankfurt Hub International Conference, SAFE, Frankfurt, Sept 2025
Abstract. We examine how monetary policy transmits through non-bank lenders (NBLs) using comprehensive loan-level data covering the universe of all loans in an economy. A one-percentage-point (pp) increase in the policy rate leads NBLs to raise lending rates by 0.17 pp more than banks and to contract credit sharply on the extensive margin. We show that this amplification is driven by a liability wedge: banks’ price-insensitive deposit franchise stabilizes their funding costs, whereas NBLs rely on short-term wholesale debt that reprices immediately. This funding fragility exposes NBLs to rapid balance-sheet deterioration, resulting in higher pass-through and a stronger contraction in lending. This credit contraction spills over to the real economy, causing firms with high non-bank exposure to reduce assets, liabilities, employment, and profitability significantly more than bank-dependent firms. Consequently, we show that NBLs can act as stronger propagators of monetary policy than banks.
Inflation Expectations and Term Premium, (2024) with Raf Wouters
presented at: EABCN Conference: Advances in monetary policy and the natural rate of interest, EUI, Oct 2025 (scheduled), 55th Annual Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance Society, University of Manchester, Sept 2024, CEBRA Annual Meeting 2024, ECB, Aug 2024, RES Annual Conference, Queen's University Belfast, March 2024, ASSA 2024 Annual Meeting, San Antonio, Jan 2024 (scheduled), National Bank of Belgium, April 2023, 8th annual conference of the Society for Economic Measurement, Milan, June 2023, De Nederlandsche Bank, Jan 2023, Annual Congress of the EEA, Bocconi, Milan, Aug 2022, Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association, University of Vienna, Vienna, Sept 2022, Bank of Portugal, Aug 2022
Abstract. We study the drivers of the co-movement in inflation expectations and term premium that we observe in the data. Since these two variables are unobserved, their empirical estimates are based on different structural models. We build a general equilibrium model that is consistent with the empirical evidence and incorporates the endogenous dynamics of both variables. To further account for the fact that these series are unobserved, we introduce information frictions. We find that the drivers of the co-movement switch from the actions of the Fed to decrease inflation to shocks originated in financial markets. We interpret this as follows: increased demand for safe assets drove term premiums down lowering expectations about future growth and, consequently, about inflation. This switch occurs as the central bank faces challenges in communicating changes in the target effectively due to the environment of information frictions.
How much do Banks Hide? (2024) with Roman Goncharenko
R&R at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
presented at: De Nederlandsche Bank, Oct 2024 , CERGE-EI, Nov 2023 (scheduled)
Abstract. We develop a simple quantitative model of a bank to study hidden loan losses under regulatory scrutiny. The model incorporates stochastic regulatory audit, enabling temporary concealment of losses. Calibration shows that banks typically hide about 0.8% of loan portfolios as defaulted loans. Following a contractionary aggregate shock, this rises sharply to 2.9% staying elevated for four years. We further show that hidden defaults heighten the risk of bank failure and increases its expected costs.
Work in Progress:
Decarbonisation Strategies and Their Impact on Firm Efficiency, (2024) with Paulo Rodrigues and László Tétényi
The Costs of Transitioning to a Green Economy, (2023) with Anna Matzner and Katrin Rabitsch
presented at: NOEG Winter Workshop, WU Wien, Dec 2023
Bank vs. Non-Bank Lending: Complements or Substitutes? with Roman Goncharenko
The Effects of Trade Fragmentation on a Small Open Economy, with Andrea Ferrero
Publications:
Details Matter: Loan Pricing and Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area, (2025) with K. Vilerts, S. Anyfantaki, K. Benkovskis, S. Bredl, M. Giovannini, F.M. Horky, V. Kunzmann, T. Lalinsky, A. Lampousis, F. Petroulakis, Klavs Zutis
Accepted at International Journal of Central Banking
Re-assessing International Effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks, (2024) with Katrin Rabitsch
Accepted at International Journal of Central Banking
Persistent Monetary Policy in a Model with Involuntary Unemployment, (2023) with Roman Goncharenko
Economic Inquiry, 1–27. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70033.
presented at: ASSA 2022 Annual Meeting, Boston 2022, Annual Congress of the EEA Virtual, Copenhagen 2021
a short version: Persistent Monetary Policy in a Model with Labor Market Frictions, in AER Papers & Proceedings (2022)
Negative Nominal Rates, (2024) with Julio Dávila
Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 80, September 2025, 101437, ISSN 1572-3089.
ssrn version; published version
Evidence on Monetary Transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest Rate versus Inflation Target Shocks, (2023) with K. Rabitsch
European Economic Review, Vol. 158, September 2023, 104557, ISSN 0014-2921.
Vienna University of Economics and Business Best Paper Award 2024
ssrn version; published version; online appendix
Persistent Monetary Policy in a Model with Labor Market Frictions, with R. Goncharenko
American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings, Vol. 112, May 2022, 112: 496-502.
Policy work:
The Sectoral Impacts of Tariffs and Trade Fragmentation on the Irish Economy, (2025) with M. O'Grady
Central Bank of Ireland Staff Insights, No. 2, Vol. 2025
Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Lending Rates: Evidence from the Irish Central Credit Register, (2025) with R. Goncharenko
Central Bank of Ireland Economic Letter, Vol. 2025, No. 1.