Research

My research interests are at the intersection of physical and statistical modelling. I'm particularly interested in problems from mathematical geosciences and in rare events.

Selected Publications

S.E. Ogburn, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, D. Lopes, A. Patra, E.B. Pitman, R. Rutarindwa, E.T. Spiller, and R.L. Wolpert. "Pooling strength amongst limited datasets using hierarchical Bayesian analysis, with application to pyroclastic density current mobility metrics." Statistics in Volcanology (2), 1–26, 2016.

M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, E.T. Spiller, A.K. Patra, E.B. Pitman, and R.L. Wolpert. "A method for quantifying volcanic hazards." Int. J. for Uncert. Quant. 5(4), 297–325, 2015.

L. Slivinski, E.T. Spiller, A. Apte, and B. Sandstede. "A hybrid particle-ensemble Kalman filter for Lagrangian data assimilation." Monthly Weather Review 143(1), 195–211, 2015.

N. Santitissadeekorn, E.T. Spiller, C.K.R.T. Jones, R. Rutarindwa, L. Liu, and K. Ide. "Observing system simulation experiments of cross-layer Lagrangian data assimilation." Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, (66), 77–93, 2014.

E.T. Spiller, M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, A.K. Patra, E.B. Pitman, and R.L. Wolpert. "Automating Emulator Construction for Geophysical Hazard Maps." SIAM/ASA J. Uncert. Quant (2), 126–152, 2014.

E.T. Spiller, A. Apte and C.K.R.T. Jones. "Assimilating en route Lagrangian observations." Tellus A, (65), 20319, 2013.

E.T. Spiller, and G. Biondini. "Importance sampling for dispersion-managed solitons." SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 9, 432–461, 2010.

M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, K. Dalbey, S. Lunagomez, A.K. Patra, E.B. Pitman, E.T. Spiller and R.L. Wolpert. "Using statistical and computer models to quantify volcanic hazards." Technometrics 51 (4), 402–413, 2009.

E.T. Spiller, and G. Biondini. "Phase Noise of Dispersion-managed Solitons." Phys. Rev. A 80 011805:1–4, 2009.

Currently Funded Projects

NSF CDS&E Collaborative Research: Advancing Statistical Surrogates for Linking Multiple Computer Models with Disparate Data for Quantifying Uncertain Hazards. August 2016 – July 2018. NSF-DMS 16224679

NSF SEES Hazards Hazards SEES: Persistent Volcanic Crises Resilience in the Face of Prolonged and Uncertain Risk. September 2015 – August 2018. NSF-SES 1521855.