EDA Philippines Dengue Cases 2016-2020

1. Before diving into the data analysis, I conducted a thorough data cleaning process to ensure the data's quality and integrity.

The data was clean, with no missing values, and no data preprocessing was needed, so I could proceed to the next step.

2. Analysis and EDA.

We can note that the mean and median values differ significantly. However, we cannot work with outliers from this dataset as they are inherent to its nature. In some months, there is low incidence and mortality, while in others, there is a significant increase, including disease outbreaks. Therefore, we need all of this data to track the dynamics effectively.

If we take a closer look at the ratio of dengue deaths per dengue cases over time, we can observe a positive trend since 2016. The mortality rate decreased from 3.9% in 2019 to 1.3% in 2020. We should also note that although the number of deaths in 2020 is relatively low, in terms of the percentage compared to the number of cases, the number of deaths is higher than in 2018 and 2019.

From 2016 to 2017, there was a slight decline in the number of Dengue infection cases. However, starting from 2017, there was a sharp increase that reached its peak in 2019. Afterward, there was a significant decline in cases until 2020.

Based on the calculations and comparisons conducted, we can conclude that since 2016, the number of deaths from Dengue has consistently decreased. It shoud be noted that in 2019 there is a slight increase in mortality which is associated with the increase in Dengue infection cases.

Dengue cases typically increase starting from June and reach their peak during the months of August and September. The safest months are typically April and May, which coincides with the dry season in the Philippines

Death cases of Dengue significantly increase during the months of July and August, reaching their peak in September and October. The safest months are April and May, which coincides with the dry season in the Philippines.

As can be observed, Region VII is among the TOP 5 regions in terms of the number of Dengue cases and among the TOP 4 regions in terms of the number of deaths from the disease. Unfortunately, the dataset does not include information about the population by regions, so we cannot precisely correlate this data with the population at that time. Therefore, we cannot definitively state that Region VII is at risk. In this case, it is highly recommended to take maximum precautions to protect yourself from mosquito bites in order to minimize the risk of infection.

According to the analysis conducted, there is no clear downward trend in the number of Dengue infection cases in Region VII. There was a significant decline observed in 2017-2018 and 2020. However, the situation varies from year to year, and there is no clear trend overall.

Regarding the number of deaths, the highest count was observed in 2017. From 2018 onwards, the cases of fatalities vary from year to year, and in 2020, there is a decline in Dengue-related mortality. However, it is important to consider this as a trend of decreasing mortality as more recent data is needed to provide a more definitive conclusion.

Conclusion:

During the analysis, we were able to explore the overall trend and find answers to the questions posed:

1. In what specific month do we observe the highest dengue cases?

The peak of dengue cases occurs in August, consistently followed by September. After that, a decline in cases is observed. As for dengue deaths, the peak is approaching October. As known, the rainy season in this region starts in June, and comparing it with our graph, the number of dengue cases starts to rise around June and continues to increase afterward. This could be related to the onset of the rainy seasons. However, we have limited data and cannot verify this assumption within the scope of this analysis.

2. What region has the highest average number of cases for the year 2016-2020?

The region with the highest average number of cases for the year 2016-2020 is Region IV-A, while in terms of dengue deaths, the region is NCR, which ranks fourth in the number of dengue cases. Moreover, it is worth noting that upon closer examination of the Top 5 regions with the highest number of Dengue cases and Top 5 regions with the highest number of Dengue deaths the latter list includes Region XII and CAR, which are not in the top 5 for dengue cases.

3. What is the trend of the disease for the past 5 years? Is it going lower or higher?

Overall, there has been a trend of decreasing dengue cases since 2019. However, if we look more closely at the specific Region VII, there is no clear trend, and the situation changes from year to year.

4. What is the ratio of dengue deaths per dengue cases? Is it going lower or higher as time goes by?

From 2016 to 2019, there is a consistent decline in the ratio of dengue deaths to dengue cases. However, in the period of 2019-2020, an increase can be observed.

It is important to note that this analysis provides insights based on the available data, and further studies and more recent data are necessary to gain a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics and trends of dengue cases and deaths in the Philippines.