The Macroeconomic Effect of Stimulus Checks: Evidence from Postwar Veterans' Payments, with Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell and Diego Känzig
Preliminary Draft (June 2026)
Identifying Policy Causal Effects From Rule Changes, with Christian Wolf
Preliminary Draft (March 2026)
Missing Intercept, Biased Slope: Identification in General Equilibrium
Working Paper (March 2026)
Controls, Not Shocks: Estimating Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics, with Simon Lloyd
Working Paper (April 2024)
Firms' Margins Behaviour in Response to Energy Shocks: Evidence from the UK, with Sophie Piton and Ivan Yotzov
Economics Letters, February 2024
Blog: VoxEU
Coverage: The Guardian, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report (November 2025)
The Transmission of Macroprudential Policy in the Tails: Evidence from a Narrative Approach, with Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo and Simon Lloyd
Conditionally Accepted @ Journal of Applied Econometrics
Working Paper (November 2023)
Runner Up, 2023 Ieke van den Burg Prize for Research on Systemic Risk, ESRB.
Blog: Bank Underground
Twitter: Summary Thread
Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk, with Simon Lloyd and Konstantin Panchev
IMF Economic Review, February 2023
Published Version | Working Paper
Blog: Bank Underground
Twitter: Summary Thread
Coverage: CentralBanking.com
When Growth-at-Risk Hits the Fan: Comparing Quantile-Regression Predictive Densities with Committee Fan Charts, with Simon Lloyd and Giulia Mantoan
Preliminary Draft (May 2022)
No economy is an island: how foreign shocks affect UK macrofinancial stability, with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Rosie Dickinson, Sevim Kösem and Simon Lloyd
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (October 2021)
Coverage: Bloomberg