The Macroeconomic Effect of Stimulus Checks: Evidence from Postwar Veterans' Payments, with Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell and Diego Känzig
Working Paper (September 2026) | Replication (Main Results) | Transfer Shock Series
Twitter: Summary Thread
Missing Intercept, Biased Slope: Identification in General Equilibrium
Working Paper (September 2026)
Identifying Policy Causal Effects From Rule Changes, with Christian Wolf
Working Paper (August 2026)
Controls, Not Shocks: Estimating Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics, with Simon Lloyd
Working Paper (April 2024)
The Transmission of Macroprudential Policy in the Tails: Evidence from a Narrative Approach, with Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo and Simon Lloyd
Journal of Applied Econometrics, July 2026
Published Version | Working Paper
Runner Up, 2023 Ieke van den Burg Prize for Research on Systemic Risk, ESRB.
Blog: Bank Underground
Twitter: Summary Thread
Firms' Margins Behaviour in Response to Energy Shocks: Evidence from the UK, with Sophie Piton and Ivan Yotzov
Economics Letters, February 2024
Blog: VoxEU
Coverage: The Guardian, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report (November 2025)
Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk, with Simon Lloyd and Konstantin Panchev
IMF Economic Review, February 2023
Published Version | Working Paper
Blog: Bank Underground
Twitter: Summary Thread
Coverage: CentralBanking.com
When Growth-at-Risk Hits the Fan: Comparing Quantile-Regression Predictive Densities with Committee Fan Charts, with Simon Lloyd and Giulia Mantoan
Preliminary Draft (May 2022)
No economy is an island: how foreign shocks affect UK macrofinancial stability, with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Rosie Dickinson, Sevim Kösem and Simon Lloyd
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (October 2021)
Coverage: Bloomberg