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The Conference Board produces a number of economic indicators each month. Some of the indicators are "leading" the business cycle, in that they are often predictive of overall macroeconomic movements. Others are "coincident" in that they move pretty closely with other macroeconomic variables like GDP. Finally, there are "lagging" indicators which are not typically predictive, but change after the overall economic winds have shifted.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Average weekly hours in the manufacturing sector have been declining in the past year or two, declining by about 5% overall
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