Topic: Bio-control under environmental changes
Leaders: Rana Parshad, and kwadwo antwi-fordjour, Iowa State Univ, and Samford Univ.
Abstract: Biocontrol, the practice of using natural predators to manage pest populations, has traditionally been modeled through autonomous plant-pest-predator or predator-pest dynamics, employing classic dynamical systems theory to assess stability and long-term behavior. However, climate change, which brings more extreme and variable weather patterns like altered rainfall, drought, and flooding, affects pest dispersal patterns and thus challenges the adaptability of their biocontrol agents. This research aims to expand traditional models by introducing time-dependent and seasonal factors, especially examining the impact of periodic dispersal rates in biocontrol patch models. By comparing models with constant and time-periodic dispersal rates, the study will explore scenarios like dispersal-induced growth, delay effects, and non-local models with kernel functions, systematically analyzing established findings while addressing open questions.
Topic: Modeling the impact of prescribed fire in a meta-population to control tick-borne diseases
Leader: Folashade Agusto, University of Kansas
Abstract: This study models the impact of prescribed fire as a control method for tick-borne diseases within a meta-population framework, where fire acts as a targeted disturbance to reduce tick populations across connected habitats. By employing impulsive differential equations, the model captures the abrupt and periodic nature of fire events, enabling a realistic representation of fire's immediate effects on tick density and subsequent recovery in the meta-population. This approach allows for the examination of both the direct impact of fire and its broader ecological effects over time, offering insights into optimal timing and frequency of fire to sustainably control tick populations and limit disease transmission.
Topic: Optimizing Plasmodium falciparum malaria control strategies in Africa
Leader: Emmanuel Bakare, Federal University Oye Ekiti Ekiti State Nigeria
Abstract: Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria remains a critical health issue in tropical regions, with 247 million global cases annually, 86% of which occur in Africa. However, the seasonal and spatial dynamics of malaria across regions are not fully understood. This project aims to analyze seasonal trends in malaria incidence across Africa, exploring spatial synchrony, lag times, and regional differences in epidemic patterns. Using a newly compiled database of monthly malaria cases, wavelet analysis will assess seasonal patterns in areas with significant annual incidence. A deterministic compartmental model, calibrated through classical and Bayesian methods, will simulate malaria dynamics and evaluate current control strategies’ impacts. Expected findings include region-specific seasonal patterns, insights into vector control effectiveness, and optimal intervention scenarios to inform the National Malaria Control Program. The results will guide future malaria prevention and control efforts, strengthen community relationships, and promote effective strategies like regular use of insecticide-treated nets to support regional malaria elimination goals in Africa.