Internal Migration, Educational Mobility and Welfare: A Quantitative Analysis of China (JMP)[latest draft]
Abstract：Massive rural-urban migration in recent decades has profoundly impacted the Chinese economy. Migrants face the dilemma of whether to move with their children, affecting the intergenerational educational attainment. To evaluate the welfare effects of internal migration and understand the mechanisms, I build an overlapping generation spatial equilibrium model in which migrants face the children's placement choices. I estimate the model parameters and find that allowing all parents to move with their children induces structural change and increases welfare, primarily by improving educational mobility. In counterfactuals, I show reducing migration costs narrows the overall welfare gap between skill groups, stimulates structural transformation, and significantly improves educational mobility, though at the cost of increased spatial inequality. I also provide evidence in support of relaxing migration control policies while improving the quality of education in rural areas to mitigate the growing inequality.
Trade Liberalization and Intergenerational Education Mobility: Evidence from China [slides]
with Li Zhang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)
Abstract : This study examines the impact of trade liberalization on intergenerational education mobility, focusing on China's accession to the WTO. The negative impact of export tariff reduction on educational outcomes is greater for low-educated family children than for high-educated family children, reducing intergenerational education mobility. Estimations of intergenerational education elasticity also support this finding. This study proposes that the opportunity cost of education alone cannot explain the results and documents another non-negligible mechanism: parents reduce their time and effort on children's education to take new job opportunities and earn a higher income, negatively affecting early childhood development.
The Benefits and Costs of Motorization: Evidence from Jakarta [slides]
with Alexander D. Rothenberg, Syracuse University
Abstract: We use a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model to study how rising motorization impacts welfare, inequality, and urban spatial structure. We calibrate the model with high quality data on commuting flows, travel times, and vehicle ownership from Greater Jakarta, one of the world’s largest agglomerations with some of the worst traffic. Counterfactual simulations suggest that reducing vehicle ownership costs would lead to increased welfare, reduce segregation, but also increase inequality.
A Curse or a Blessing: The Long-run Effects of the Soviet Union Aid Program to China
Under Review
with Zhong Zhao, Renmin University of China
Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of the Soviet Union's 156-project aid program on modern private economic development in China, with a specific focus on the level of entrepreneurship. We analyze multiple industrial and economic censuses spanning 80 years and construct a comprehensive industry-city level dataset. Using a machine-learning based IV strategy, we find that the 156-project program is associated with a lower level of entrepreneurship in China. The results also demonstrate that the program hinders modern entrepreneurship through various channels, including a reduction in competition, increased institutional costs, and higher local wages. The negative impacts are relatively smaller in larger, denser cities, or those with higher administrative levels. We also find inter-industry spillovers have a positive effect on entrepreneurship in the service sector, as well as on local wages across different industries. Positive spatial spillovers encourage entrepreneurs to relocate to neighboring areas, resulting in an uncertain overall impact on the aggregate economy.
Work in Progress
Quality Innovation, Cost Innovation, and Markups
with Mengxiao(Michelle) Liu, Hamid Firooz, and Luhang Wang
Publications (Chinese)
[1]"How does Human Capital in City effect wages? " with Zhang, Jiashu. South China Journal of Economics, 2018 (06)
杜静玄,张佳书.城市人力资本如何影响工资水平?.《南方经济》, 2018 (06)
[2] "Is Chinese Investment a Boon to Domestic Stability or a Catalyst for Internal Conflicts in the Host Count-ries?" with Wang, Bijun and Li, Xiuyu. World Economics and Politics, 2020 (03)
王碧珺,杜静玄,李修宇.中国投资是东道国内部冲突的抑制剂还是催化剂.《世界经济与政治》, 2020(03)