Together or Apart? Migration, Education Access, and Intergenerational Mobility in China (JMP)[updated! 2/1/2026]
Abstract：This paper studies how spatial inequality in education access and child-related migration costs jointly shape internal migration, intergenerational mobility, and welfare in China. To disentangle education barriers from other child-related costs, I develop a dynamic quantitative spatial model with overlapping generations and endogenous decisions on education, location, and migration mode, estimated using a covariate-based approach with multiple data sources. I find that direct financial subsidies to migrant families induce substantial labor reallocation, accelerate industrial transformation, and generate significant welfare gains, particularly in underdeveloped regions. Policies that remove educational barriers markedly enhance intergenerational mobility among migrant children at a lower fiscal cost despite smaller aggregate welfare effects. These distinct general equilibrium effects matter for policy design: progressive central fiscal transfers compress spatial inequality but reduce aggregate efficiency and dampen the effectiveness of local migration reforms, revealing tensions between intergenerational mobility and aggregate welfare objectives.
Trade Liberalization and Intergenerational Education Mobility: Evidence from China [latest draft coming soon!]
with Li Zhang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)
Abstract : This study examines the impact of trade liberalization on intergenerational education mobility, focusing on China's accession to the WTO. The negative impact of export tariff reduction on educational outcomes is greater for low-educated family children than for high-educated family children, reducing intergenerational education mobility. Estimations of intergenerational education elasticity also support this finding. This study proposes that the opportunity cost of education alone cannot explain the results and documents another non-negligible mechanism: parents reduce their time and effort on children's education to take new job opportunities and earn a higher income, negatively affecting early childhood development.
The Benefits and Costs of Motorization: Evidence from Jakarta [slides]
with Alexander D. Rothenberg, Syracuse University
Abstract: We use a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model to study how rising motorization impacts welfare, inequality, and urban spatial structure. We calibrate the model with high quality data on commuting flows, travel times, and vehicle ownership from Greater Jakarta, one of the world’s largest agglomerations with some of the worst traffic. Counterfactual simulations suggest that reducing vehicle ownership costs would lead to increased welfare, reduce segregation, but also increase inequality.
A Curse or a Blessing: The Long-run Effects of the Soviet Union Aid Program to China
with Zhong Zhao, Renmin University of China
Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of the Soviet Union's 156-project aid program on modern private economic development in China, with a specific focus on the level of entrepreneurship. We analyze multiple industrial and economic censuses spanning 80 years and construct a comprehensive industry-city level dataset. Using a machine-learning based IV strategy, we find that the 156-project program is associated with a lower level of entrepreneurship in China. The results also demonstrate that the program hinders modern entrepreneurship through various channels, including a reduction in competition, increased institutional costs, and higher local wages. The negative impacts are relatively smaller in larger, denser cities, or those with higher administrative levels. We also find inter-industry spillovers have a positive effect on entrepreneurship in the service sector, as well as on local wages across different industries. Positive spatial spillovers encourage entrepreneurs to relocate to neighboring areas, resulting in an uncertain overall impact on the aggregate economy.
Work in Progress
Breathing Risk: The Effect of Urban Air Pollution on Severe Traffic Accidents
with Yi Liu and Jindong Pang
Publications (Chinese)
[1]"How does Human Capital in City effect wages? " with Zhang, Jiashu. South China Journal of Economics, 2018 (06)
杜静玄,张佳书.城市人力资本如何影响工资水平?.《南方经济》, 2018 (06)
[2] "Is Chinese Investment a Boon to Domestic Stability or a Catalyst for Internal Conflicts in the Host Count-ries?" with Wang, Bijun and Li, Xiuyu. World Economics and Politics, 2020 (03)
王碧珺,杜静玄,李修宇.中国投资是东道国内部冲突的抑制剂还是催化剂.《世界经济与政治》, 2020(03)