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National Emergency vs Pandemic
National Emergency vs Pandemic
![World Map [Photograph]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/sitesv/APaQ0SSw-ayE2sUn6YHZ8_CSIx_oSbQDopuw7sgT1DWVITJLtFKwDMtn1d6mHErFsZsFUnx1XDWi4WbfUQPvK0EWC7oQ804Z5_sB1MMyKUEv5CfKFVz_CSSu5jWiXqSeah_5q9Sojm3ZJQRq_30NT4MDq9qckxdlNFRaLhm-ItIM5U_rYCUB0XlPXuAm_mHfR7fxwUKD7GRrtK8_KQ43ZGldNyZOWiHujDPp7llqVz4=w1280)
(2023) | Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World | Bloomberg. https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fgraphics%2F2020-coronavirus-cases-world-map%2F&psig=AOvVaw16Hz4E7q5tz0h1DjNOAkS6&ust=1712436530118000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBIQjRxqFwoTCPjh7Kv5q4UDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE
A national emergency refers to a critical situation where circumstances threaten the country and require an immediate response. While the United States Executive Branch declared the state of national emergency as over, the pandemic itself has not ended within the U.S. and the broader globe, according to the WHO.
The issue is NOT over, and taking layered COVID safety precautions, such as high-quality masking, ventilating the air, and testing, are still recommended.
Note: this map does not reflect the current distribution of COVID cases
Credit: BNO News. They are one of the last teams collecting US COVID data.
They source their stats from CDC-gathered State Data, directly from State Datasets, and from Biobot wastewater analysis.
Visit BNO News X feed for recent updates on COVID and other viruses in the US.
BNO News Weekly US COVID Updates
BNO News Weekly US COVID Updates
As of October 6, 2024:
New cases: 91,800 estimate
Weekly average: 122,641 (down 11.5K from previous week)
In hospital: 4,187 (down 470 from previous week)
In ICU: 509 (down 42 from previous week)
New deaths: 1,209
Average: 1,254 ( down 86 from previous week)
As of October 14, 2024:
This is the 9th week in a row with more than 1,000 new COVID deaths.
So far this year, more than 5.7 million cases of COVID have been reported in the U.S., causing 464,050 hospitalizations and 46,321 deaths.
limited data
Pandemic Mitigation Collabrative
Pandemic Mitigation Collabrative
The PMC gathers COVID wastewater data from Biobot and converts that data into more easily interpretable statistics.
Graphs are as of 11/11/24. Visit the PMC website for updates.
Disclaimer
Due to the nationwide dismantling of COVID tracking, general testing availability, decreases in self-reporting, etc., all following statistics are estimates and are widely undercounted.
Year by Year US COVID Trends and 4 Week Forecast
Hoerger, Michael PhD (2024) | COVID-19 Forecasting Model | Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative. https://pmc19.com/data/
Likely entering the 10th wave of the pandemic.
Transmission is expected to remain high the remainder of the year.
0.9% (1 in 113) are infectious
>423,000 COVID cases/day
148,000 to 592,000 resulting Long Covid cases/week
These are alarming figures 4+ full years into the pandemic.
"In a month, the model suggests we may be close to 1.3 million daily infections in the U.S."
The transmission levels can be expected to be similar to previous years' medians.
There will be more accurate forecasts once we are at December 1.
People should maintain high levels of layered mitigation efforts
Zoomed In: 6 Month View and 4 Week Forecast
Hoerger, Michael PhD (2024) | COVID-19 Forecasting Model | Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative. https://pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID_Forecast_Nov11_2024.pdf
General PMC US COVID Statistics - Table Format
Hoerger, Michael PhD (2024) | COVID-19 Forecasting Model | Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative. https://pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID_Forecast_Nov11_2024.pdf
Past Information
Past Information
![Screenshot of a Tweet from BNO News [Photograph]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/sitesv/APaQ0STTEcdYDSJRwmr_HYGSyjdeFRcDBYsmLizAT5QbjRf_vF1QwK6Ej8nfg9Ryoz3jRFITiFsXDmfyUps6kgvCaKg0oOI8hyKRECwNETrDZpV3KIJHygQN1tr1r7kK4BjZ4--mnDWy_iyGka6qJRYy5wbynSE4wURTHrFZSYHMXMuYZ2nKsSR2HJqV4dUy-nW9_Jf9Rui7TmqAIk-Ba3KSPgw9gaWk2oPgqpOWv9k=w1280)
Credit: BNO News. They are one of the last teams collecting US COVID data.
They source their stats from CDC-gathered State Data, directly from State Datasets, and from Biobot wastewater analysis.
Visit BNO News X feed for recent updates on COVID and other viruses in the US.
BNO News Weekly US COVID Updates
BNO News Weekly US COVID Updates
As of March 31, 2024:
New cases: 85,366 estimate
Weekly average: 113,856 (down 22K from previous week)
States reporting: 50 out of 50
In hospital: 10,458 (down 1K from previous week)
In ICU: 1,402 (up 7 from previous week)
New deaths: 1,202
Average: 1,322 ( down 112 from previous week)
This is the 29th week in a row with more than 1,000 new COVID deaths or nearly 48,000 deaths during the same period.
So far this year, more than 2.8 million cases of COVID have been reported in the U.S., causing 243,599 hospitalizations and 24,406 deaths.
Graphs are as of 4/1/24. Visit the PMC website for updates.
Year by Year US COVID Trends and 4 Week Forecast
Hoerger, Michael PhD (2024) | COVID-19 Forecasting Model | Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative. https://pmc19.com/data/
Exiting the 8th U.S. COVID wave, although 2024 is still marked by quite high transmission compared to previous waves.
Transmission has declined to reach an approximate low point for the year.
Transmission is higher than during 37.4% of the pandemic and lower than during 62.6% of the pandemic.
0.95% (1 in 105) are infectious
>450,000 COVID cases/day
>20,000 resulting Long Covid cases/day
These are alarming figures 4+ full years into the pandemic.
According to the composite forecasting model, transmission should remain relatively stable over the next month, hovering between 450 and 600 thousand infections/day.
The turtle model (green) suggests that transmission is presently lower and will increase to 250-500 thousand infections per day over the next month.
The cheetah model (orange) suggests marginally higher transmission than the composite model.
July, transmission will bound around in the neighborhood of 400-600 thousand infections per day, barring viral evolution,
People should maintain high levels of layered mitigation efforts
Zoomed In: 6 Month View and 4 Week Forecast
Hoerger, Michael PhD (2024) | COVID-19 Forecasting Model | Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative. https://pmc19.com/data/
General PMC US COVID Statistics - Table Format
![Table of PMC COVID Statistics [Photograph]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/sitesv/APaQ0SRUx0aXo42dy4yxZoAwBU_R0roSnntf7QDERJbdrA_3zJONotSxRCXKPOmgwjC7JnrElCeB4HSSGxGtyXlPREJ1Nnxz4UjcdvYjjmmV_KQXCKQtoAum1wfly7fpNICFoq4xYRyLF-aR20vtyKGA7R1iyXaDDB4FhDkKyai99mHWvZqbyutZOD_2YblezpXMIZlR3RHft0xG3Lkv3bwESF9zV-WGJ7lxNfnm=w1280)
Hoerger, Michael PhD (2024) | COVID-19 Forecasting Model | Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative. https://pmc19.com/data/
Current estimates for April 1, 2024:
Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) - 312
New Daily Cases - 454,000
% of Population Infectious - 0.95% (1 in 105)
New Daily Long COVID Cases - 23,000 to 91,000
Weekly estimates for April 1, 2024:
New Weekly Cases - 3,200,000
New Weekly Long COVID Cases - 159,000 to 636,000
2024 Cumulative Estimates as of April 1, 2024:
Total 2024 Cases to Date - 96,068,760
Total 2024 Long COVID Cases to Date - 4,803,000 to 19,214,000
4-Week Forecast for April 29, 2024
Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) - 410 (31% higher than current estimates)
New Daily Cases - 596,000
% of Population Infectious - 1.25% (1 in 80)
New Daily Long COVID Cases - 30,000 - 119,000
How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contact?
This figure shows the chance anyone would be infectious in a group based on group size.
1 Person - 0.9% Chance Anyone is Infectious
5 People - 4.7% Chance Anyone is Infectious
10 People - 9.1% Chance Anyone is Infectious
50 People - 37.9% Chance Anyone is Infectious
100 People - 61.5% Chance Anyone is Infectious
200 People - 85.2% Chance Anyone is Infectious
500 People - 99.2% Chance Anyone is Infectious
SARS-CoV-2 Virus Concentration (copies/mL of sewage)
(2024) | COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring in the U.S. | Biobot. https://biobot.io/data/
The COVID wastewater concentration (COVID cases) has never been this high in April throughout the entire pandemic.
According to Michael Hoerger, PhD, from PMC, every RNA copy of SARS-CoV-2 per mL of Sewage converts to roughly 1455 daily cases. Divide copies/mL by 328 to find the percent actively contagious that day. Allow for a margin of error 15% higher or 30% lower.
Example: 1000 copies/mL. 1,450,000 daily cases (1000 x 1450) and 3.05% actively contagious (1450/328)
COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring by Region
(2024) | COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring in the U.S. | Biobot. https://biobot.io/data/
Green - West | Pink - South | Purple - Midwest | Orange - Northeast
The Northeast saw the largest spike back in the winter.
Today all regions are at roughly the same concentration level (192-442 copies/mL)
COVID-19 Variant Trends over Time
(2024) | COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring in the U.S. | Biobot. https://biobot.io/data/
The new JN.1 is the current dominant COVID strain, beginning to rise in November 2023. There is not currently a vaccine for this specific strain; however, the recent XBB 1.3 Vaccine has proven to be an effective guard.
COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring - Los Angeles County
(2024) | COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring in the U.S. | Biobot. https://biobot.io/data/#county-06037
Los Angeles County is also exiting the COVID wave, following the national trend. Generally, Los Angeles County follows national trends and sits slightly lower than the national average COVID wastewater concentration.
Conversion 1 copy/mL = 1450 cases.
April 1, 2024, Los Angeles Concentration - 230 copies/mL or about 310,500 daily cases. 0.7% actively contagious.
Sources
Sources
COVID-19 epidemiological update – 15 March 2024 | https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-epidemiological-update-15-march-2024
The Biobot Network of Wastewater Treatment Plants | https://biobot.io/data/
Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative - COVID-19 Forecasting Model | https://pmc19.com/data/
BNO News | https://twitter.com/BNOFeed?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Michael Hoerger, PhD | https://twitter.com/michael_hoerger/status/1776421511705891059?s=42&t=btUuw-seuHSk08GeTTSfkg
Pandemic Mitigation Collabrative
Pandemic Mitigation Collabrative
The PMC gathers COVID wastewater data from Biobot and converts that data into more easily interpretable statistics.
Graphs are as of 4/1/24. Visit the PMC website for updates.
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