Research Highlights

Research in the Group

Our research group (Hydro-Climatology Group) is addressing problems from the broad domains of hydro-climatology. The group’s research focuses on extreme hydroclimatic events, including heatwaves, droughts, and floods, with an emphasis on their increasing frequency and severity due to climate change. By utilizing General Circulation Models (GCMs) and remote sensing data, we aim to improve future forecasting and risk assessment. Our work also evaluates the impact of these extremes on agriculture, helping develop adaptive strategies for crop resilience and water resource management.

Droughts and Flash Droughts

Droughts are prolonged periods of deficient precipitation that significantly impact water availability, agriculture, and ecosystems. Traditional droughts develop gradually over time, leading to severe hydrological and socio-economic consequences. Our group studies drought characteristics across multiple spatiotemporal scales, analyzing trends, frequency, duration, and severity.

Flash droughts are rapidly developing drought events characterized by a sudden onset and intensified dry conditions over a short period. Unlike traditional droughts, which take months or years to manifest, flash droughts can develop within weeks, causing severe agricultural and ecological disruptions. Our research investigates flash droughts across India, analyzing their frequency, duration, and severity using satellite-based soil moisture datasets and meteorological observations.

Floods and Compound Floods

Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters, impacting millions of people worldwide. With climate change intensifying extreme rainfall events, the frequency and magnitude of floods have increased. The group focuses on understanding flood dynamics, particularly in urban and riverine settings.

Compound floods result from the simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple flood drivers, such as extreme rainfall, high river discharge, and coastal storm surges. These events pose complex challenges for flood management as their impacts are often more severe than individual flood events.

Heatwaves

Heatwaves, prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, often accompany droughts, exacerbating their impacts. Rising global temperatures have increased the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, posing severe risks to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure. Our research focuses on identifying heatwave trends using observational and climate model data, assessing their interaction with droughts, and developing early warning systems to mitigate their effects. By analyzing historical temperature records and future climate projections, we aim to improve predictive capabilities for extreme heat events and their cascading impacts on ecosystems and society

Compound Events

Compound hydroclimatic events occur when multiple extreme weather conditions—such as heavy rainfall coinciding with storm surges or droughts intensifying heatwaves—interact to amplify their impacts. These events pose significant challenges to infrastructure, agriculture, and disaster management, as their combined effects are often more severe than individual extremes. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable, as simultaneous extreme precipitation and sea-level rise can overwhelm drainage systems, leading to catastrophic flooding. Similarly, the co-occurrence of prolonged droughts and heatwaves can exacerbate agricultural losses, reduce water availability, and increase the risk of wildfires.

Recent Research in the Group

Publication Link

Compound Extreme Dry and Hot Events in Madhya Pradesh: Temporal Shifts, Regional Hotspots, and Adaptation Strategies

The global risk of Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHEs) is increasing with warming levels, severely affecting water, agriculture, and ecosystems. Central India, particularly Madhya Pradesh (MP), faces rising CDHEs, with northern and eastern districts emerging as hotspots. Using TerraClimate data (1958–2022), this study shows post-1990 shifts with higher temperatures, reduced monsoon rainfall, and intensified drought risks. Findings reveal growing interdependence between drought and heat extremes, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies like IWRM, climate-resilient farming, early warning systems, and livelihood diversification to safeguard vulnerable regions.

Publication Link

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Flash Droughts Across Indian River Basins

Flash droughts (FDs) are characterized by sudden onset and rapid intensification, severely impacting ecosystems, water resources, and agriculture. This study proposes a novel aridity index-based approach to define and analyze FDs across 25 Indian river basins (1981–2021). It investigates spatiotemporal patterns and key hydrometeorological triggers, including precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture. Findings show that FDs are more intense in humid areas and are often driven by both meteorological and soil moisture anomalies. The study provides critical insights to support policy and management strategies for drought mitigation in India.

Terrestrial ecosystem response to flash droughts over India

Flash droughts pose significant threats to terrestrial ecosystems and carbon dynamics in India, but their regional impact remains understudied. Using MODIS GPP and soil moisture data, this study investigates ecosystem responses to flash droughts across India. Results show that GPP responds to over 95% of flash droughts, with the strongest impacts in the Ganga basin and southern India. Response times range from 10 to 19 days, with the lowest in the Indus-Ganga basins. The study identifies flash drought hotspots and highlights the need for drought mitigation strategies to protect ecosystem sustainability.

Publication Link

Hydrological dichotomy: Streamflow drought in dammed vs. undammed regions of the largest Indian Peninsular basin

This study examines streamflow drought patterns in India's Godavari Basin, which spans humid to semi-arid regions. While frequent hydrological droughts have affected the basin, the influence of human activities and climate change remains understudied. The research reveals that drought severity is highest in central and eastern regions. Dammed areas experience longer droughts, while undammed areas show more intense and deficit-driven droughts. These findings highlight the need for tailored water management strategies for dammed and undammed regions in the Godavari Basin.

Human versus climate interactions on riverine flood characteristics in the largest Indian Peninsular basin

This study examines flood dynamics in the Godavari Basin, influenced by human activities like dams and reservoirs. Using the Peaks Over Threshold method, generalized Pareto distribution, and CUSUM analysis, we analyzed flood characteristics such as peak, volume, and duration. Results show that the east-central and eastern sub-basins contribute to increased flood volume, peak, and duration downstream, while dammed regions in the west experience smaller floods. Undammed regions in the east-central and eastern areas face larger floods due to lack of infrastructure and severe climate conditions. These findings support the development of targeted flood management strategies for the basin.

Publication Link

Three Decadal Urban Drought Variability Risk Assessment for Indian Smart Cities

This study assesses urban drought risk for Indian smart cities before the launch of the Smart Cities Mission in 2015. It analyzes three decades (1982–2013) of meteorological, hydrological, vegetation, and soil moisture data to evaluate water scarcity and drought conditions. The research identifies Bangalore, Chennai, and Surat as having the highest urban drought risk, particularly in Northwest, West Central, and South Peninsular regions. The findings highlight how the Smart Cities Mission can help enhance resilience and sustainability, reducing vulnerability to extreme weather and aligning with national and international climate resilience goals.

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