Research Interest
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Caspian Sea
Lake Victoria
Research highlights
The fate of the Caspian Sea under projected climate change and water extraction during the 21st century
The fate of the Caspian Sea under projected climate change and water extraction during the 21st century
CMIP6 models have a tendency for drier projections than CMIP5
This is the first study to combine latest state-of-the-art projections with extraction scenarios based on historical water use and projected population for 21st century
Water extraction rates are equally as important as climate change in controlling future Caspian Sea level
Koriche_et_al_2021_ERL.pdf
Projected CS area of the 21st century based on CMIP6 (a) medium and (b) extreme emission scenarios and without WE. The broken line with box marker is the magnitude of area vulnerable to desiccation for a 6 m CS level decline. (c) The time at which the northern part of the CS area with average depth of 6 m will be desiccated for four experiments with three WE and a NoWE scenarios using multi-model-mean climate output from CMIP6 extreme and medium emission scenarios. The grey part of the bar-chart of the NoWE scenario indicates that the northern part of CS area will not be affected until the end of 21st century. (d) Map showing area vulnerable to desiccation for a 6 m CS level decline shown in grey. (Key: CS - Caspian Sea, WE - water extraction, NoWE - no water extraction)
Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment‐scale and large‐scale climate
Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment‐scale and large‐scale climate
Surface water budget over the Caspian catchment decreases as surface area increases due to negative lake surface-evaporation feedback
A larger Caspian Sea enhances precipitation over central Asia, warms the north-western Pacific during winter, and reduces Pacific sea ice
Accurate representation of the Caspian Sea in climate models is important to avoid creating additional biases both locally and globally
Koriche_2021b.pdf
Winter and summer changes of 2-m air temperature (a and b respectively) and precipitation (d and e respectively) for current CS minus no-CS scenario. Mean winter 2-m temperature (c) averaged over north-west Pacific region [51°N–72°N and 155°E–187.5°E] (yellow box area), and mean summer precipitation (f) averaged over central Asia region [39°N–50.5°N and 62.5°E–100°E] (yellow box area) for the four CS surface area change scenarios. Stippling indicates regions where the change is statistically significant at the 95% level based on a Student's t-test. (Key: BC–Large CS, CC–Present-day CS, SC–small CS, NC–No-CS, DJF–December/January/February, MAM–March/April/May, JJA–June/July/August, SON–September/October/November).
The Fennoscandian ice-sheet significantly impacted Caspian Sea level.
Ice-sheet loading and damming increased the Caspian drainage basin area by 60–70%.
Southward redirection of north-flowing rivers increased runoff to the Caspian Basin.
Runoff increase (not including ice melt) led to overflow to Black Sea at LGM.
Ice melt extended the period of Caspian Sea connection to Black Sea to ∼15kyr BP.
Study area map showing key palaeo and present-day features, including runoff sources and drainage directions, ice-sheet limits, Caspian Sea basin limits, and neighbouring drainage basins. Plausible runoff sources and directions to Black and Caspian Seas (indicated by blue arrows and numbers from 1 to 6); Limits of Last Glacial Maximum after Hughes et al. (2016) (shown by black and white line), Late Saalian [160-140 kyr BP, thick black line], and Early Weichselian glacial maximum [90–80 kyr BP; line with black circles] after Svendsen et al. (2004); Present day Caspian Sea [CSB; dark blue area], Amu-Syr Darya [AmuD; yellow hashed area] and Himalaya-Internal drainage [HB; yellow areas] basin outlines; Palaeo and present day river network [blue solid line] and Caspian Sea extents. The pro-glacial lakes locations are hypothesised after various sources (e.g., Mangerud et al., 2001; Mangerud et al., 2004; Yanchilina et al., 2019). Grey shaded areas are present day global oceans. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
Koriche_2022.pdfApplication of satellite products and hydrological modelling for flood early warning
Application of satellite products and hydrological modelling for flood early warning
We model flood early warning system using remote sensing and hydrological modelling.
Remote sensing based hydrological modelling reveals source areas of extreme runoff.
High values of Standard Precipitation Index reveal periods of peak flood.
Runoff is well captured when remote sensing products served as model input.
Flowchart of the flood early warning approach. The figure shows two major step and or methods followed to achieve the objective of the research (to examine the relation between locations with high flood index values and highest stream flow: to serve in flood early warning). Runoff modelling (left panel) based on the LISFLOOD model approach and flood index (right panel) as indicator to basin wetness using TWI (from DEM) and SPI (CMORPH Rainfall).
Koriche_2016.pdfPage updated
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