SUMMARY
My research spans international trade, technology, regulations and economic development. I work across micro-data, econometrics and geospatial methods to answer policy-relevant questions for governments, global institutions, and academic audiences.
PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES
Chung, S., Poudel, D., Chatterjee, S. and Rajbhandari-Thapa, J. (2025). Household Food Behavior and Health Expenditure in the United States. Nutrition and Health, Forthcoming
Abstract: Over the years, the health care cost is increasing. Several studies in the public health domain have studied food behavior to improve health but the direct relationship between food consumed and health expenditure is yet to be investigated. We examine the relation, if any, between healthy food behavior and health expenditure at the household level, using the unique National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS). This is important also to inform the current policy shift towards food as medicine. The publicly available unique FoodAPS data (2012-13) allows us to examine household food behavior and monthly health expenditure. We explored the association by using a multiple regression model by controlling confounding households’ financial behavior and sociodemographic variables. Monthly other expenditures and total expenditures, along with health expenditures, are included as a part of the sensitivity analysis to see if there is a significant difference in households’ spending. Among the full sample (4,026), the average monthly household health expenditure in the years 2012-2013 was $191, while the monthly mean total household income was $3,391. Regarding the overall households’ health status, close to 3.1% of the sample were in the ‘Health Poor’ group, whereas most households defined themselves as having good health (54%). We found that households that self-perceive to be eating healthy are found to spend less on health issues compared to their counterparts who self-perceive to be not eating healthy. Along with the significant direct relationship between food behavior and health expenditure the findings reveal the importance of household monthly income, employment status, housing ownership, household asset, age, education, gender, marital status, and financial behaviors to determine monthly health expenditure. This assessment can be instrumental in reducing health expenditure through policy levers to affect food behavior.
Khanal, A., Poudel, D. and Gopinath, M. (2024). The Imported Challenge: Economic Impact of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Imports on U.S. Producers. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, First View. Link
Abstract: Domestic fruit and vegetable producers contend that rising imports during seasonal har- vesting windows have negatively impacted domestic prices and revenue. This study simulates producers’ revenue with the removal of above-average imports as defined by the U.S. Interna- tional Trade Commission. Results indicate significant additional revenues to domestic producers in the simulated scenario. Also, additional revenues to producers by state and season show sub- stantial heterogeneity with robustness checks revealing similar patterns. Options such as risk management and technological improvements are needed to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. fresh produce industries instead of limiting imports in the absence of illegal dumping.
Poudel, D. and Gopinath, M. (2024). Political Instability and Undernourishment: Nepal’s Decade-Long Insurgency. Global Food Security, 40: 100741. Link
Abstract: This study examines the impact of political instability – Nepal's decade-long Maoist insurgency – on undernourishment using data from the Nepal Living Standard Survey before (1995), during (2003) and after the insurgency (2011), and Uppsala Conflict Data Program (1996–2009). A two-level (household and community) random-intercept logistic model of the probability of undernourishment is estimated using LASSO and instrumenting for insurgency. Traditional household and community characteristics have expected and statistically significant effects on the undernourishment status. The average effect of insurgency on the probability of undernourishment is 27 and 15 percent during 2003 and 2011, respectively, but substantial heterogeneity is observed with implications for institutional quality and stability.
Poudel, D. and Gopinath, M. (2023). Regional Heterogeneity in Undernourishment: A Case of Nepal. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies. Link
Abstract: Ensuring adequate access to food to all has remained a major challenge of the 21st century. To aid the effort of hunger alleviation, many studies have quantified the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU), mostly at the national level. There has been limited attention to understanding the intra-country variation in undernourishment estimates. Unlike past studies, this study tracks the substantial regional heterogeneity in the undernourishment status within Nepal. Employing Food and Agriculture Organization's methodology and Nepal Living Standards Survey data from 1995, 2003 and 2011, household energy consumption and requirements are computed to determine regional undernourishment. Nepal's PoU declined between 1995 and 2003 but increased after 2003 affecting approximately 7.6 million Nepalese in 2011. The Terai domain – Provinces 2 and 5 – are found to be the most vulnerable to undernourishment concerns likely because of economic and natural shocks. Province 4 achieved higher progress in alleviating undernourishment during 2003, but its PoU doubled in 2011 (as in Province 6). By examining where and how many are undernourished within Nepal, this study has provided a more accurate picture of the PoU for better-targeting assistance to improve the livelihood of its citizens.
Adhikari, S., Poudel, D., Gopinath, M. (2023). Is Policy Greasing the Wheels of Global Palm Oil Trade? Research on World Agricultural Economy, 4(2): 62-77. Link
Abstract: Oil palm is the major source of edible oil and feedstock consumed in the world. This study examined the determinants of global palm oil trade with attention to the effects of trade policies using a gravity model, PPML estimator, and the data from 1988-2020. Palm oil's dramatic trade growth in recent years can be attributed to the economic growth of large countries, the proximity of partners and policies. Trade agreements increased crude and refined palm oil trade by up to 8 and 4 percent of the global import value, respectively. Further, the effects of policy changes due to COVID-19 and the recent export ban in Indonesia are also quantified.
Montiel Ishino FA, Rowan C, Talham C, Villalobos K, Poudel D., Raj Bhandari-Thapa J, Seme Ambikile J, Williams F. (2022). Household profiles of neglected tropical disease symptoms among children: A latent class analysis of built-environment features of Tanzanian households using the Demographic and Health Survey. Journal of Global Health; 12:04067. Link
Abstract: While malaria and neglected tropical disease (NTD) morbidity and mortality rates among children <5 years old have decreased through public health efforts in the United Republic of Tanzania, associations between household environments and disease outcomes are relatively unknown. We conducted latent class analysis (LCA) on 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic Health Survey data from mothers with children <5 years old (N = 10233) to identify NTD household risk profiles. The outcome of child NTD was assessed by mothers’ reports of recent diarrhoea, cough, treatment for enteric parasites, and fever symptoms. Household-built environment indicators included urban/rural designation, electricity access, water source, cooking fuel, flooring, wall, and roofing materials. External environmental covariates were considered to further differentiate profiles. Five profiles were identified in the sample: rural finished walls households (40.2%) with the lowest NTD risk; rural rudimentary households (20.9%) with intermediate-low NTD risk; finished material households (22.5%) with intermediate NTD risk; urban households (14.4%) with intermediate-high NTD risk and high likelihood of enteric parasites; rural finished roof/walls households (2.1%) with the highest overall NTD risk. This study is among the first to use LCA to examine household environment characteristics to assess child NTD risk in Tanzania. This paper serves as a framework for community-level rapid NTD risk assessment for targeted health promotion interventions.
Poudel, D. and Gopinath, M. (2021). Exploring the disparity in global food security indicators. Global Food Security, 29: 100549. Link
Abstract: Much information on the food security status of countries has become increasingly available in recent years. However, alternative measures, especially with large variation, can affect policy design and delivery to alleviate food insecurity. This study explores variation within and among global food security indicators – from FAO, UNDP, IFPRI and USDA – during 1991–2018. Within variation is significantly explained by economic growth, literacy, urbanization and internet access, while a meta-regression analysis pointed to study heterogeneity as potential sources of variation among these indicators. Results have implications for future data compilation and analysis for a more accurate picture of the prevalence of undernourishment and for the effects of the ongoing pandemic on food security.
Salazar, J., Bergstrom, J.C. and Poudel, D. (2020). Estimating the Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the State of Georgia Economy: A Quick-Response Method. Journal of Agribusiness, 38(1): 105-116. Link
Abstract: The primary objective of this research was to conduct a quick-response estimation of the total economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the leisure and hospitality industry in the State of Georgia utilizing state job loss data and an input-output model. The advantage of using job loss data is that they are frequently reported (e.g., weekly, monthly) and are readily available from federal and state labor statistical sources allowing for a quick, industry-specific snapshot of the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the State of Georgia, approximately 187,500 jobs were lost in March and April of 2020 in the accommodation and food services sectors, which are part of the broader leisure and hospitality industry. These job losses were associated with estimated decreases in total output in the state in March and April about $1.4 billion, $2.3 billion, and $4.3 billion, respectively.
Poudel, D. and Pandit, N.P. (2020). Profitability and Resource Use Efficiency of Polycarp Production in Morang, Nepal. Journal of the Institute of Agriculture and Animal Sciences, 36: 63-74. Link
Abstract: The study was designed to portray the resource use efficiency of polycarp production in Morang district of Nepal during December 2017 to April 2018. Total of 30 commercial and 30 subsistence farmers were selected for primary data collection. Cobb-Douglas function was used to determine inputs that affect productivity. Empirical results illustrated the enterprise to be profitable as indicated by Benefit Cost Ratio, 1.87 in commercial and 1.33 in subsistence farms. The income of commercial farms was significantly higher (NRs. 76.94/kg) than subsistent farms (p<0.01). Estimates suggested feed and labor to be reduced; proper use of lime, fertilizer, other cost and pond rent to be increased. Therefore, the fishery enterprise is in the stage of higher potentiality to increase its production in the study area.
BOOK CHAPTER
Panday D., Vista S.P., Poudel D., Chhetri A., Acharya B.S. (2021) Soils and Humans. In: Ojha R.B., Panday D. (eds) The Soils of Nepal. World Soils Book Series. Springer, Cham. Link
Abstract: Soils have been vital to humankind since time immemorial. They provide food, fiber, energy, and nutritional security. In Nepal, soils are intricately linked to cultures and traditions. However, in the recent decades, soil degradation and food shortages are also evident due to marginalization of agriculture, land use change, and out-migration of rural people. In this chapter, we explored different soil functions, and trends and repercussions of land cover change. We also outlined different soil and water quality issues resulting from heavy metals, organic pollutants, and pathogens, and provided brief recommendations to guide and improve soil health and quality.
WORKING PAPERS
Poudel, D. and Gopinath, M.Regulatory Heterogeneity, Trade Mediation and Nutrient Consumption: The Case of Trans Fat. University of Georgia
Abstract: Using the case of trans fat (TF), this study examines how national regulations affect nutrient consumption—both directly, through domestic policy mechanisms, and indirectly, via trade mediation. While many countries have adopted TF restrictions or bans, these policies differ markedly in timing, stringency, and monitoring, creating regulatory heterogeneity that can generate cross-border spillovers mediating domestic-policy impacts. This paper constructs a validated food-item-level panel dataset for 161 countries (2010–2022) and applies a staggered difference-in-differences approach combined with mediation analysis to estimate the causal effects of TF regulations. Results show that TF intake declines significantly only under strict and enforceable policies, which act as filters by reducing both domestic exposure and imports of TF-rich foods. In high-income regions such as the United States and European Union, these policies led to highest reductions in both intake and imports. In contrast, countries with weaker regulations experienced rising TF imports, eventually increased intake, effectively placing them at risk of becoming “dietary risk havens.” Notably, the presence of formal monitoring mechanisms enhances policy effectiveness even where regulations are less stringent. These findings highlight the imperative for coordinated international action—through regulatory harmonization or trade-linked enforcement—to prevent regulatory dumping and promote more equitable protection from harmful nutrients. The results also offer timely insights for global policy debates on emerging mandates for other nutrients, such as salt, sugar, and saturated fats.
Poudel, D. and Gopinath, M. Digital Gains and Employment Pains? Evidence from Indian Manufacturing. University of Georgia
Abstract: The growing adoption of digitalization, particularly in information and communication technology (ICT), has become a key driver of value creation for firms. However, concerns persist about potential job losses or stagnating employment growth, especially with rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. This study leverages micro-level data from both formal and informal sectors to assess the benefits of digitalization in Indian manufacturing—a critical hub for global supply chain diversification—and explores whether these gains come at the cost of employment growth. For this purpose, digital capital is considered to be an input in production since it provides firms with comparative advantages. Moreover, digital capital can substitute or complement other inputs, such as physical capital. By measuring digital capital as the accumulation of weighted ICT investments, this study estimates a value-added function for firms and plants using a nested CES model, uniquely capturing the substitutability between physical and digital capital. Semi-parametric estimation methods, accounting for simultaneity between inputs and productivity, reveal significant digital gains for Indian manufacturing firms and plants in both sectors from 2010 to 2021. The formal sector experienced relatively higher digital gains, accompanied by greater elasticity of substitution between physical and digital capital. Contrary to common assumptions, increased digital capital intensity correlates with higher labor and skilled-labor intensity in formal industries. Globally, when combined with industry formalization efforts, digitalization can drive both value addition and employment growth.
Poudel, D. and Gopinath, M. Road to Resilience: Floods, Highways and Indian Informal Manufacturing. University of Georgia
Abstract: While road infrastructure is widely recognized as a driver of economic development, can it also aid in disaster resilience? This paper investigates whether India’s national highway corridors—the Golden Quadrilateral and the North-South and East-West—can buffer production losses from extreme floods in informal manufacturing. Motivated by a structural model of disaster resilience at the plant level, the study examines the effects of dual and staggered treatments: floods and roads. It combines geospatially matched, staggered flood exposure data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory with phased highway rollout timelines from the National Highways Authority of India and repeated cross-section survey data (1990–2016) on Indian informal manufacturing. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of flood exposure and road construction, the study implements a stacked difference-in-differences design, matching treated districts to future-treated counterparts. Results show that floods significantly reduce both gross output and value added, while highway access counteracts those losses. Plants located directly on completed highway segments nearly neutralize the average 7 percent flood-related output loss, benefiting from both higher output and lower input expenditures—labor, materials, and energy. These effects are magnified for plants that own transport equipment, highlighting a complementarity between internal logistics and external infrastructure. Off-highway plants exhibit similar resilience only when they possess transport assets, enabling access to distant road networks. Overall, the findings reveal that roads are not only engines of development but also critical enablers of resilience. Designing infrastructure with this dual function—development and resilience—is essential for building a climate-smart and resilient informal production economy.
Scognamillo, A., Burrone, S., Poudel, D. et al. Driving Impact or Missing the Mark? Experimental Evidence from e-Extension Platform Deployment in Rural Sri Lanka. FAO of the United Nations
Abstract: This study examines the impact of the Smart Extension and Efficient Decision-making (S.E.E.D) Hub, an integrated e-extension service implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in rural Sri Lanka. The S.E.E.D Hub aimed to improve agricultural outcomes by delivering geospatially tailored market and weather information, along with farming advisory services, through a user-friendly mobile application. The initiative sought to address key challenges faced by paddy farmers, including production efficiency, risk management, marketing strategies, and food security. The program’s impact was evaluated using a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) involving 2,200 paddy farmers across 220 Farmer Organizations (FOs), representative of Sri Lanka’s paddy-farming population. The results reveal that the S.E.E.D Hub significantly enhanced access to timely and relevant information, with a 50 percent increase observed among the compliers sub-population, as measured by the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE). Furthermore, the intervention promoted greater crop diversification and strengthened farmers’ capacity to market rice effectively, signaling potential long-term economic benefits. While the program produced some encouraging results, the absence of statistically significant effects on food security and vulnerability to harvest losses suggests that access to information alone is insufficient to improve resilience related outcomes, underscoring the need for more comprehensive and supportive interventions. Policymakers are encouraged to consider integrating such initiatives with broader support mechanisms, such as access to credit, financial risk mitigation tools, and investments in rural infrastructure, to maximize their impact on agricultural resilience and livelihoods.
Poudel, D., and Scognamillo, A. Persistent Climate Shocks Exacerbate Acute Malnutrition in Rural Nepal. FAO of the United Nations
Abstract: This study investigates how persistent climate shocks impact child malnutrition in rural Nepal, a high-risk Himalayan nation with preexisting malnutrition, particularly among children under 5. Using three waves of the Nepal Rural Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey (2016-2018) and geospatial climate data to compute shock incidence rate based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), this study quantifies the effect of persistent shock on acute malnutrition, and potential pathways. Findings indicate that persistent shocks over the past five years significantly worsen wasting, with anomalous dry condition being 2-4 times more deleterious. Shocks during the agricultural season amplifies the risk, while other determinants like higher income, public infrastructure (drinking water) and remittances help mitigate wasting. The effect of shocks varies across sociodemographic groups (ethnicity, gender, education, total child), and adopting agricultural technology and community engagement are effective in reducing the impact of climate on wasting. Likewise, male children are more vulnerable to shocks compared to their female counterparts, though both genders are impacted in multi-child households. This underscores the need for strategic interventions based on the timing and nature of climatic shocks. The paper contributes to the literature on climate shocks and child nutrition, stressing the importance of targeted policy intervention in vulnerable regions like Nepal.
Poudel, D., Scognamillo, A. True Cost of Food for Harmonized Policymaking: Role of Assumptions, FAO of the United Nations
Abstract: Meeting the rising global food demand without a simultaneous transformation of agrifood systems might impose a heavy toll on both ecological and human health. Although the agrifood system is replete with substantial benefits, its transformation in an inclusive and sustainable way requires taking into account the hidden costs inherent to food production. A more comprehensive and accurate understanding of the actual costs underpinning food production and consumption systems may help policymakers and stakeholders throughout the agrifood value chains to make more informed decisions about food choices, production methods and policy alternatives. Previous studies have shown that there is no agreement on the specific methodology to be used for the accounting of hidden costs of annual food production. One indisputable fact is that, regardless of the true cost accounting (TCA) approach considered, the global estimated amount is huge, ranging from US$ 6.03 to 19.8 trillion in 2019. More importantly, besides the discrepancy in total figures, disparate methodologies can lead to profoundly divergent implications for policymakers. The novelty of this study lies in theoretical scenario analysis, exploring the interplay between the choice of a particular TCA approach and the consequent policy intervention it engenders. It does so by systematizing the assumption underlying different TCA approaches within four categories and discussing their implications in shaping the policy interventions across three domains namely (a) fiscal policies, (b) information and regulations policies, and (c) non-fiscal policies. It concludes with a generalizable framework consisting of four criteria that can supplement the goal of achieving effective and harmonized policy outcomes.
DRAFT-IN-PREPARATION
3. Poudel, D., Gopinath, M. United States Peanut Trade Outlook. UGA Extension
2. Niazi, K.K., Poudel, D., Burrone, S., Scognamillo, A., Early Warning-Based Anticipatory Interventions for Drought Mitigation: (Quasi-) Experimental Evidence from Somalia. FAO
1. Burrone, S., Niazi, K.K., Poudel, D., Bologna, G., When and How to Deliver? Experimental Evidence on Anticipatory Cash Transfers in Somalia. FAO
POLICY MEMOS/ EXTENSION REPORTS/ NEWS
4. Gopinath, M., Poudel, D. (2025). Rising Imports and Soaring Costs: Dual Pressures Squeeze U.S. Fresh Produce Growers. Southern Ag Today, Sept 18. Link
3. Gopinath, M., Poudel, D. (2025). Continuing Challenges in U.S. Fruits and Vegetable Industry. Report for Georgia Fruits and Vegetables Growers Association
2. Gopinath, M., Khanal, A., Poudel, D. (2023). Creeping Imports and Hidden Costs to U.S. Fresh Produce Growers, Southern Ag Today, Feb 8. Link
1. Gopinath, M., Khanal, A., Poudel, D. (2023). Economic Impact of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Imports on U.S. Producers. Report for Georgia Fruits and Vegetables Growers Association, Coverage: Georgia Fruits and Vegetables Grower Association News
WORK IN PROGRESS
Projects on international trade, supply chains, regulatory spillovers, fertilizer policy, food systems, and disaster resilience.
