However, for most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow. We are more likely to see snow between January and March than in December, with snow or sleet falling an average 3.9 days in December, compared to 5.3 days in January, 5.6 days in February and 4.2 days in March.
White Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752 which effectively brought Christmas Day back by 12 days. Climate change has also brought higher average temperatures over land and sea and this generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas.
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Traditionally we used to use a single location in the country to define a white Christmas, which was the Met Office building in London. However, with the increase in betting on where will see a white Christmas, the number of locations have increased and can now include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast (Aldergrove Airport), Aberdeen (Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen FC), Edinburgh (Castle), Coronation Street in Manchester and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day. This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'white Christmas'.
Technically, 2022 was the last white Christmas in the UK with 9% of stations recording snow falling, although none reported any snow lying on the ground. Before that 2021 and 2020 were also white Christmases, with 6% of weather stations recording snow falling in both years, but less than 1% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground in 2021 and only 4% in 2020.
The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.
If you're hoping for a white Christmas this year, the forecast is not favorable for that wish to come true for much of the Lower 48. The weather pattern approaching Christmas suggests that warmer-than-average temperatures will limit snow blanketing the ground Christmas morning.
First, a note that a white Christmas occurs when there's at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn't have to be snowing on the actual holiday for that to happen. A trace of snow also doesn't count.
Christmas 2021, however, had the third-lowest snow cover in the Lower 48 in the last 10 years, with just 26.6% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing a white Christmas. Snow cover was only found in the West and across the far northern tier. This is not surprising given that December 2021 was the warmest December on record.
Last Christmas, Buffalo, New York, experienced the most snow on the ground on record with 27 inches as a Christmas blizzard impacted the area. Syracuse, Albany and Pittsburgh also experienced a white Christmas in 2022.
Burlington, Vermont, and Caribou, Maine, have had more than 30 inches of snow on the ground in Christmases past. In 2022, both locations experienced a white Christmas with 6 inches of snow on the ground in Caribou and 4 inches measured in Burlington.
White Christmas wishes came true for most of those in the Northern and Central Plains last year. Minneapolis had 10 inches of snow covering the ground, while Duluth had 21 inches. Light snow fell on Christmas Day in parts of the region, including in Bismarck, North Dakota, where a little more than 2 inches was reported.
Farther south, Omaha, Nebraska, and Kansas City, Missouri, both had an inch of snow on the ground for Christmas 2022. Wichita, Kansas, experienced its first white Christmas since 2013 last year with 2 inches of snow on the ground.
Christmas snow cover isn't just a northern thing. Some years, parts of the southern U.S. have marveled at the sight of a white Christmas. But it's been more than 10 years since a white Christmas was observed in much of the South.
-In 1989, a pre-Christmas snowfall was followed by a strong arctic cold outbreak that brought both Charleston, South Carolina (4 inches), and Savannah, Georgia (2 inches), their only white Christmas. Jacksonville, Florida, missed a white Christmas by a day when an inch of snow fell Christmas Eve morning. It had melted by Christmas Day.
A winter storm system is expected to develop over the north-central mountains starting Saturday evening. Metro Denver and Colorado Springs have the greatest chance of snow accumulation overnight Saturday through Sunday, Christmas Eve.
High temperatures for those areas will hover around freezing through the holiday, which should make any snow accumulation stick around in the mountains and Denver through at least Christmas Day, Cooper said.
Denver International Airport urged weekend travelers to monitor their flight status online, and arrive earlier due to high traffic forecasts through the airport. Roughly 600,000 ticket holders are expected to pass through the airport through Dec. 26.
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Now, there's an interactive map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that lets you see the historic probability of 1 inch or more of snow on Dec. 25. NOAA used three decades of data (1991 to 2020) from weather stations across the United States to make the map.
Shocking no one, Minnesota is among the states with the highest probability of snow on Christmas. How high that probability is, however, varies quite a bit depending on where you live. For example, areas in southern and central Minnesota see a white Christmas about 70% of the time, while parts of northern Minnesota get one about 90% of the time.
"Actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day," the NOAA said. "These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely."
Last year, there was 10 inches of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities on the morning of Dec. 25. But there have been several brown Christmases in the Twin Cities in recent years, including 2021, 2018 and 2015.
The current record for the deepest snow cover on Dec. 25 was back in 1983, when there were 20 inches of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities. That also was among the coldest Christmas Days on record, with a high just 1 degree above zero.
"El Nino usually means for the state of Minnesota that we're going to have milder temps and also less than average when it comes to snowfall," Meadows said. "But it is still possible. We could get a rouge storm that could head in right before we head into Christmas so there's always a chance."
Historically speaking, Wisconsin has a very good chance each year to have a white Christmas. Extreme nothern Wisconsin has the highest probability, with nearly 90-100% of the time to have a snow-covered surface.
Furthermore, the long-range forecast doesn't look good for cooler temperatures. The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook calls for temperatures to be well above normal from Dec. 19 to Dec. 25. High temperatures will likely range from the mid-30s to the 40s.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
Minnesota. Maine. Upstate New York. The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Practically anywhere in Idaho. And of course, the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These are the parts of the United States where weather history suggests you want to be if you're looking for the best chance of a white Christmas.
While the map shows the historical probability that at least 1 inch of snow will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day. These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely. For prediction of your actual weather on Christmas, check out your local forecast at Weather.gov.
First, comparing two adjacent Normals periods is not the most direct way to look for climate change. From one 30-year Normals period to the next, two decades of the data are the same; only one decade out of three is new. This gradual introduction of a single decade of new data means that most changes from one Normals period to the next will be relatively small compared to the trend between the oldest decade and the most recent decade. It also means that at some locations, changes could be the result of natural decadal variability.
Beyond those broad strokes, local changes between the two maps would have to be carefully investigated and placed into context with other climate data and analysis techniques better suited for detecting long-term change.
The Atlantic side of Canada will see a white Christmas across northern Newfoundland and northern New Brunswick, but not farther to the south. Southern Quebec, Southern Ontario, and the Prairies will all have a white Christmas. Meanwhile, there will be a white Christmas in Southern British Columbia for inland areas, but not along the Pacific Coast.
At the same time, winter will be colder-than-normal in most of the northern tier states, Midwest, Great Plains, and Rockies. It will be warmer than normal from New England and the Atlantic Corridor down through the Southeast to Florida and in the southern half of Texas.
So, according to this prediction, it could be that you might have snow on the ground a few days earlier than Christmas, but rain and mild temperatures closer to Christmas may tend to melt what is there, somewhat. 152ee80cbc
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