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Long-term sea level rise will affect the extent, frequency, and duration of coastal flooding events. High-tide flooding events that occur only a few times a year now may occur once a month, or once a week in the coming decades. These same water level changes may also increase coastal erosion and groundwater levels. Elevated groundwater levels can lead to increased rainfall runoff and compromised underground infrastructure, such as public utilities, septic systems, and structural foundations. Higher water levels also mean deadly and destructive storm surges, wave impacts, and rainwater are unable to drain away from homes and businesses.

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Another reason for differences in regional sea level is vertical land motion. Across the U.S., land is sinking or rising at different rates and times, and this affects how high sea level rises in a region. Vertical land motion can be a result of geologic processes (e.g. the movement of tectonic plates); human activity, such as removing groundwater or fossil fuels from underground, which can cause the land to sink; or naturally-occurring sediment compaction and settling over time (e.g., subsidence in the Mississippi River delta).

Global mean sea level, or the average height of the ocean surface, has risen 6 - 8 inches (15 - 20 centimeters) since 1920. In the continental U.S., relative sea level has risen about 10 - 12 inches (25 - 30 centimeters) over the same period. Observational data from tide gauges and satellites also show that sea level rise, both globally and along the continental U.S., is accelerating, with more than a third of that rise having occurred in the past two and a half decades (see NOAA and NASA portals for altimeter-based global rates and NOAA for local tide gauge rates).

In the 2017 sea level rise technical report, scenarios were related to representative concentration pathways. The 2022 report and data employ the underlying methods and output from the Sixth Assessment Report and their dependency on shared socioeconomic pathways, but focus more on how these scenarios relate directly to different amounts of end-of-century surface warming associated with the pathways (see Question 3).

Process uncertainty is associated with how well we currently understand why sea level has changed in the past and how it will change in the future at specific times and locations. To capture process uncertainty in sea level rise projections, there is a range of uncertainty around each individual scenario (i.e., the low/17th%, median/50% and high/83rd% values for each particular scenario). The farther forward in time we move, the greater the uncertainty around each projection.

Emissions uncertainty is captured in the range between the five global mean sea level rise scenarios: Low (1 foot; 0.3 meters), Intermediate Low (1.6 feet; 0.5 meters), Intermediate (3.3 feet; 1.0 meter), Intermediate High (4.9 feet; 1.5 meters), and High (6.6 feet; 2.0 meters). In other words, the range between the five sea level scenarios is closely connected to emissions uncertainty, while the range around a given scenario is associated with process uncertainty.

The 2022 technical report includes five possible scenarios of global sea level rise by 2100: Low (1 foot; 0.3 meters), Intermediate Low (1.6 feet; 0.5 meters), Intermediate (3.3 feet; 1.0 meter), Intermediate High (4.9 feet; 1.5 meters), and High (6.6 feet; 2.0 meters). These same scenarios were in the 2017 technical report, but the Extreme (8.2 feet; 2.5 meters) scenario included in 2017 has been removed (see Question 14).

The 2100 projections for each global scenario stayed the same, since science suggests this range of futures remains possible. However, the timing for different rates of rise for the different scenarios was updated based on new modeling and more realistic assumptions of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet behavior based upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Climate Assessment. A result is that there is less acceleration in the higher scenarios until about 2050 and greater acceleration toward the end of this century. This has two primary implications. First, despite maintaining the same target values and having the same range between scenarios in 2100, the range covered by the scenarios is smaller in the near term than in the 2017 report. Second, the likely (17th-83rd percentile) ranges of projections for each scenario before and after the 2100 time point used to define the scenarios are wider than in the 2017 report.

Sea level along the contiguous U.S. coastline is expected to rise (considering alignment of both the observation-based trajectories and the scenarios in 2050), on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020-2050). This will vary locally because of regional factors (see Question 4). Rise in the next three decades is anticipated to be, on average:

With each passing year, improved observations and modeling help us get a clearer picture of how and when sea level is changing both globally and regionally (see Questions 3 and 4). The scenarios in the 2022 technical report are lower in the near-term decades than they were in the 2017 technical report because there is improved understanding of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet dynamics (see Question 10). This improved understanding comes from additional observations, research, modeling, and expert elicitation efforts that indicate sea level rise will be slower in the next few decades than previously projected. The 2022 technical report removes the Extreme (2.5 meter) scenario because the probability of this scenario is now thought to be too low to merit inclusion.

Sea level scenarios will continue to be refined as scientists increasingly observe and learn more about the details of dynamic earth system processes (e.g., Antarctic ice sheet response to temperature increases.) Additional data will help to reduce uncertainty. U.S. federal agencies monitor and assess key sea level rise source contributions globally and along U.S. coastlines, and this work can provide early indications of change in the trajectory of sea level rise, which can inform shifts in adaptation planning.

The 2022 technical report further refines and narrows the possible range of scenarios from the 2017 report. Assessment reports like this are the best resource for staying up-to-date on the latest changes to the sea level rise scenarios and why those changes have occurred. These reports are anticipated about every five years.

Included in the 2022 technical report for the first time, observation-based extrapolations are provided for global sea level and eight coastal regions (the Northeast, Southeast, Eastern Gulf, Western Gulf, Southwest, Northwest, Hawaiian Islands, and the Caribbean). Separate extrapolations are also provided for the southern and northern coasts of Alaska and the Pacific islands but caveated with greater uncertainty due to variations in land elevation and underlying regional sea level rise processes.

These observation-based extrapolations are very similar to the model-based projections through 2050, and therefore serve as a further line of evidence for the confidence in the near-term trajectory of sea level rise. Or, put another way, with continued global heating that is expected, there is strong reason to suspect that the current acceleration in sea level rise will continue, and this response is similar in both the observation trends and the modeled scenarios.

The report explores how the annual frequencies of high tide flooding are expected to change by 2050 considering the local sea level rise scenario that closely aligns with the rise associated with the regional observation-based extrapolations. The concept of a flood regime shift is used to describe how the annual flood frequency associated with a particular coastal flood type (i.e., NOAA minor, moderate, and major high tide flooding) changes to that of another because of sea level rise. For example, by 2050 the annual frequency of NOAA moderate high tide flooding is expected to occur on average along the U.S coastline at a frequency greater than the NOAA minor high tide flooding events occur today. Or put another way, after about 1 foot (0.3 meters) of sea level rise that is expected to occur on average along the U.S coastline, tides and storm surges that today cause minor and moderate high tide flooding will cause moderate and major high tide flooding.

The dramatic and devastating impact sea level rise will have on the lives of millions of people can be difficult to see and grasp in real time, he says. So Brandt came up with a way to show it symbolically.

In some ocean basins, sea level has risen as much as 6-8 inches (15-20 centimeters) since the start of the satellite record. Regional differences exist because of natural variability in the strength of winds and ocean currents, which influence how much and where the deeper layers of the ocean store heat.

Between 1993 and 2021 mean sea level has risen across most of the world ocean (blue colors). In some ocean basins, sea level has risen 6-8 inches (15-20 centimeters). Rates of local sea level (dots) on the coast can be larger than the global average due to geological processes like ground settling or smaller than the global average due to processes like the centuries-long rebound of land masses from the loss of ice-age glaciers. Map by NOAA Climate.gov based on data provided by Philip Thompson, University of Hawaii.

Past and future sea level rise at specific locations on land may be more or less than the global average due to local factors: ground settling, upstream flood control, erosion, regional ocean currents, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers. In the United States, the fastest rates of sea level rise are occurring in the Gulf of Mexico from the mouth of the Mississippi westward, followed by the mid-Atlantic. Only in Alaska and a few places in the Pacific Northwest are sea levels falling, though that trend will reverse under high greenhouse gas emission pathways. e24fc04721