Indian refiners have started to snap up crude shipments from Venezuela barely weeks after the easing of sanctions, opening up a new battleground for Chinese independent refiners who have been the most active buyers of the feedstock from the South American supplier in recent years.

"Some Venezuelan crude is now getting loaded and is on its way to India. With Venezuelan crude entering the market, it provides an opportunity for Indian refiners to seize the moment and enhance their sour crude refining margins, thereby boosting overall gross refining margins," said Sumit Ritolia, refinery economics analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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Shipping fixtures showed that India had returned to the market for November and December loading cargoes for Venezuelan crude after a three-year suspension since September 2020. Kpler data showed that about 20,000 mt of Venezuelan crude would be loaded in November to head to India, while the volume would jump to 390,000 mt in December. These cargoes would arrive in Sikka and Mangalore.

India is not new to Venezuelan crude. It was an active buyer of Venezuelan crude before the sanctions but had ceased purchases after Washington slapped sanctions on Venezuela. However, China's independent refiners have continued to buy those crudes even during the sanctions era.

In late October, the US Department of the Treasury eased oil, trade and financial sanctions on Venezuela for a six-month period, which could be renewed if the Nicols Maduro government follows through on its political and electoral commitments.

This meant that US oil companies would now be allowed to begin to explore and advance investments in Venezuela. Of more immediate relevance is that US oil refiners will now be able to buy oil directly from state-run PDVSA. Analysts said that this may lead to less Venezuelan crude going to Asia amid growing competition for those crudes from other regions.

Prior to the initial Venezuelan sanctions, US refiners purchased about 44% of Venezuelan crude exports. That number declined from 2017 until 2020, when the US received no Venezuelan crude as the sanctions took effect. Much of this heavy, sour crude was replaced by heavy Canadian barrels or imports from other Latin American countries.

During the period when the sanctions on Venezuela were in place, China's independent refineries shipped in the bulk of the volumes. For instance, for the month before the lifting of the sanctions, about 360,000 b/d of crude and 110,000 b/d of fuel oil came from Venezuela in September, the month the exporter's crude production averaged 770,000 b/d, S&P Global data showed.

Opening Venezuelan crude to the broader market means that the country will likely decrease its discount on crude sold to China. Chinese independent refineries currently absorb about 430,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude. S&P Global analysts said about half of those volumes could get diverted to other destinations.

"In India, Reliance and Nayara Energy would be most benefitted from Venezuelan crude since they have refiners with high complexity that can process the heavy grades," said Rajat Kapoor, managing director for oil and gas at Synergy Consulting.

"With the US now officially easing sanctions of Venezuelan crude, we should expect larger volumes to flow into India. Indian private refiners have previously engaged in crude-for-products arrangements with Venezuela, benefiting both countries while also helping India curtail its hard currency outflows," Kapoor added.

During the years just before the sanctions were imposed, India imported approximately 300,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude grades, with the bulk of the volumes being bought by Reliance Industries. Venezuelan crudes imported by Indian refiners, such as Merey-16 and Hamaca, are typically heavy, with high sulfur and high asphaltene content, producing a higher percentage of residue.

"Venezuelan crude imports will also help refiners to diversify their sources of crude oil. With OPEC+ extending their cuts, it will help in reducing dependency on an existing supply source, enhancing overall supply chain resilience," Ritolia said.

Analysts said favorable refining economics of Venezuelan crude, attributed to their discounts, might prompt Indian refiners to contemplate displacing some crude from their existing sources, specifically, those that are ranked lower in terms of margins. This potential shift could involve transitioning from Middle Eastern, Latin American or US sources to capitalize on the advantages associated with processing Venezuelan crude.

However, with the start of inflows of Venezuelan crude, analysts don't expect a reduction in the imports of Russian crude by Indian refiners, especially Urals. Although the discount on Russian crude has decreased in recent months, it still maintains a considerable advantage when compared with other sources, analysts added.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year, Indian refiners have been taking advantage of discounted Russian oil. Consequently, Moscow surged ahead to become India's primary source of crude oil in 2023.

When the Maldives held its first truly democratic elections in 2008, Gayoom was bested by 41-year-old opposition candidate Mohammed Nasheed by a margin of 54.25 percent to 45.75 percent. Nasheed had spent years imprisoned as a political activist and opponent of the Gayoom regime, winning a short-lived seat in parliament in 1999.

While Nasheed won international accolades for his economic reform programs, disaffected business interests and allies of former president Gayoom opposed the government at every turn, organizing popular protests against the Nasheed government in 2011. In January 2012, President Nasheed credibly accused the chief justice of the Maldives Criminal Court of protecting former Gayoom allies from charges of corruption and human rights abuses and ordered the judge arrested.

Just as the young democracy was struggling with its first political crisis, China began taking a greater interest in the Maldives. In mid-2011, at the outset of the political turmoil, Male was visited by Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member Wu Bangguo, the highest-ranking Chinese leader to visit the country since Premier Zhu a decade earlier. In November 2011, China opened its first embassy in the Maldives as anti-Nasheed protests were escalating.

As the crisis was unfolding, news reports suggested that 11 Chinese warships had sailed into the eastern Indian Ocean potentially bound for the Maldives, including a fleet of destroyers.REF Some reports claimed that the Indian navy confronted the Chinese flotilla. The story, however, was soon debunked. Indian military officials explained that a pair of Chinese warships had indeed passed into the Indian Ocean via the Sunda Strait but quickly returned to the South China Sea via the Lombok Strait in what may have been a routine exercise.REF

Perhaps not coincidentally, the Maldives saw a sharp drop in Chinese tourists in late 2018, including a 13 percent decline in the fourth quarter and 7 percent decline for the year.REF They remained at the same relatively suppressed level in 2019.REF

In June 2019, Prime Minister Modi made the Maldives his first foreign destination after winning a second term. In Male he signed agreements advancing plans for a coastal surveillance radar system and a military training center for the Maldivian military.REF When China organized a campaign in October 2019 to obtain signatures for a letter supporting its repressive policies in Xinjiang, it found success in most South Asian capitals. India and the Maldives were the two exceptions.REF The Solih government also scrapped plans to build a joint ocean observation station with China.REF

What happens in the Maldives is of interest to the United States, not least because the country straddles the superhighway of maritime trade in the Indian Ocean with an EEZ larger than Pakistan. In recent years, the country has grappled with political instability and financial mismanagement amid its first transition to democracy. Geopolitically, it has become a new battleground in an escalating struggle for access and influence between China and India in South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

India and the United States both have good reason to see the Maldives remain independent, financially and politically stable, and democratic. The two should leverage their respective strengths in regional capitals and pursue diplomatic coordination, particularly during times of crisis. Working-level officials at the State Department, Pentagon, and regional embassy staff should continue close collaboration with their Indian counterparts to enhance Maldivian democratic resilience and capacity building and improve transparency and accountability.

While the BDN is still in its formative stages, once the network is operational it should target the Maldives as a priority country for cooperation, guiding the Maldives toward high-quality, transparent, sustainable infrastructure options.

Increase military, technical, and civil-society-building assistance to the Maldives. Officials in the Solih government admit that U.S. experts have been assisting with their attempts to audit Chinese investments and loans agreed to by the Yameen government. The United States should consider elevating its efforts further, including through increased funding, to provide the Maldives with legal contract expertise and financial technical assistance.

By contrast, in the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka China found three democracies in periods of turbulent political transitions or civil conflicts. Each carried some historical resentment toward India and a desire not only for Chinese capital and investments but its balancing presence.

The Yameen government saw an influx of Chinese loans and investments. Some produced valuable infrastructure projects. However, two of the bigger, more controversial agreements with China were pushed through parliament via questionable, potentially unconstitutional means, lacking transparency and drawing charges of corruption. Even today, Maldivian officials complain that they cannot get an accurate accounting of how much debt is owed to China. 152ee80cbc

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