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Bayesian Instrumental Regression for Disparity Estimation (BIRDiE) is a class of Bayesian models for accurately estimating conditional distributions by race, using Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) probability estimates of individual race. This package implements BIRDiE as described in McCartan, Goldin, Ho and Imai (2022). It also implements standard BISG and an improved measurement-error BISG model as described in Imai, Olivella, and Rosenman (2022).
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A basic analysis has two steps. First, you compute BISG probability estimates with the bisg() or bisg_me() functions (or using any other probabilistic race prediction tool). Then, you estimate the distribution of an outcome variable by race using the birdie() function.
The proc_zip() function fills in missing ZIP codes, among other things. We can extract the estimated conditional distributions with coef(). We can also get updated BISG probabilities that additionally condition on turnout using fitted(). Additional functions allow us to extract a tidy version of our estimates (tidy()) and visualize the estimated distributions (plot()).
There is a terrible misconception about birdies amongst golfers that I would like to clear up. It is causing players to take unnecessary risks, and bloating their scores. If you can shift your philosophy on what a birdie represents, I believe your golf game will be better off. Simply put, you don't make birdies - you set yourself up for them.
The best player on the tour right now averages around 5 birdies per round. The middle of the pack (100 out of 200) is about 3.65. On average, tour players are making birdies roughly 15-25% of the time. This is an extraordinary number, which is what you would expect from the best players in the world.
Hopefully I have painted a clear picture for you at this point. Making birdies is incredibly difficult because it takes a combination of marksmanship with your approach shots, and excellent putting. Additionally, you have to keep your tee shots in play to even have a chance of hitting a green in regulation.
If you are entering a hole with birdie in your crosshairs I believe you are making a huge mistake. The real key to golf at almost any level is avoiding scores over par. Depending on what level you are playing, it could be bogeys, or double bogeys (and worse).
This is essentially how Tiger Woods outlasted fields. He made sure that he never made unnecessary mistakes on par 3s and par 4s. He mostly strategized so that his approach shots were on the fat sides of greens, and when birdies dropped it was a bonus. Then he used his length and accuracy to make a disproportionate amount of birdies on par 5s. Players who felt the pressure to catch up with him had to play aggressively, and eventually made mistakes.
If you are trying to make a birdie, that means you are being needlessly aggressive. You might choose a club or target off the tee that offers a large reward, but brings plenty of risk into play. Additionally, if a pin is tucked near trouble, and you miss on the short side of the green, you are almost guaranteeing yourself a bogey.
The honest truth for most of you reading this is that birdie should not really be part of your vocabulary. If you are playing golf for a living, they are an absolute necessity to keep making a paycheck. However, if you are just looking to break 80, 90, or 100 - they are not necessary.
You can put yourself in a position to make a birdie through smart strategic play, and good ball striking. Since putting is so difficult, a certain percentage of those putts will fall in the hole over time. For the most part, accepting your two-putt par should be more than OK for you.
If you are putting pressure on yourself to make birdies during your rounds I strongly urge you to stop doing it. This added stress you are putting on your strategy and execution is likely going to result in more bogeys and double bogeys. Those are the scores that really stunt your progress in golf.
The magic continued for the 2015 Masters champion two holes later, when he chipped in from for birdie from 60 feet to move to 5 under and a share of fifth pace, two shots back of co-leaders Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Rose. 152ee80cbc
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