This model simulates the basic phenomenon of infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population. Students may use this model to identify patterns of epidemic progress.
Grades: 9-12;
This model simulates the basic phenomenon of infectious disease outbreak dynamics in a population. Students may use this model to identify patterns of epidemic progress.
Grades: 9-12;
The model starts with a human population in which all people are healthy but susceptible (green color) to the incoming pathogen. Once an infected case (orange color) appears in the population, s/he will pass the disease to one of the susceptible people nearby (within a radius of 1.5) at the defined transmission rate. The infected people are able to transmit the disease for 14 days. By the 15th day of being infected, the infected people either die (disappear from the model) at the defined mortality or recover and become immune (blue color).
To simplify the process, this model uses a fixed disease transmission rate and mortality rate, 90%, and 20%, respectively.
1. First choose the starting population size.
2. Click on "Set up/Reset", then "Run/Pause".The model is initially set to stop on the 180th day. Change the number in "Time" if you want to run the model for a longer or shorter time.
3. Observe the infection changes in the population in the simulation world, plot, and monitors.
4. Use "Run one day" to run the model in a controlled way and collecting day-by-day data.
Dr. Lin Xiang creates this module at the University of Kentucky in 2019. If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.
Xiang, L. (2020). Infectious Disease Outbreak-Basic Phenomenon. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.
Questions? Comments? Email us.