Independent media and political engagement in an autocracy: Experimental Evidence from Kazakhstan (Job market paper)
Abstract: This study examines how independent political information affects beliefs, attitudes, and political engagement in an autocratic context. In partnership with a media NGO in Kazakhstan, I conduct a field experiment in which individuals are randomly assigned to receive independent political information through a fact-checking service. Exposure to the service leads individuals to revise their beliefs about the country’s limited democratic practices and to view protesters more favourably. Individuals also become less supportive of the regime relative to the opposition and are more likely to agree with the need to reduce information control. At the same time, exposure to independent political information decreases overall willingness to engage in political action. This disengagement effect is concentrated among individuals with lower prior support for democratic norms, whereas those who strongly endorse democratic principles remain engaged and are more likely to donate to support independent media. These findings expose the limits of independent political information in encouraging political participation in autocratic contexts.
Abstract: This study examines the long-term economic and social effects of the Gulag system on contemporary businesses in Russia. Exploiting a geographic discontinuity created by the arbitrary settlement of ex-prisoners, I exogenously identify areas historically exposed to forced labour. I find that firms in these regions are more numerous, larger, and more labour-intensive, with higher revenues, indicating a positive economic impact. At the same time, Gulag exposure has lasting social costs: affected areas display persistently lower levels of social capital, particularly reduced trust. To explore the implications for business behaviour, I compare how firms interact with local and distant partners. I find that economic activity in the Gulag areas is consistent with the divergent dynamics of in-group and out-group systems: local partners are privileged within dense networks, whereas distant partners are discounted, limiting the scope for broader economic expansion. Using litigation data, I show that disputes in Gulag regions are more likely to involve distant partners, where trust is weakest and reliance on formal institutions becomes necessary. Overall, the results show that weakened trust continues to shape firm behaviour decades after the end of forced labour.
Ongoing, with Anna Fruttero and Juni Singh, within the World Bank–funded Rural Infrastructure Development Project in Uzbekistan
Women remain severely underrepresented in large infrastructure projects, especially in contexts with strongly gender-skewed norms that exclude them from decision-making about public infrastructure. Using an in-survey randomization in the Life in Transition Survey, we have shown that this exclusion is primarily driven by entrenched social norms, often internalized by women themselves, while other barriers such as limited household bargaining power or low awareness appear less binding. Building on these findings and the project, we aim to evaluate which constraints are most binding and how targeted policy interventions can most effectively expand women’s voice in community infrastructure decisions.