PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS
“Openness, Specialization, and the External Vulnerability of Developing Countries” (co-authored with César Calderón and Luis Servén), Journal of Development Economics Vol 134, Sept 2018, Page 310-32. Working paper version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7711 (Washington, DC) June 2016, World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.015
WORK IN PROGRESS
WP Coming Soon “The Debt of Nations: Government Debt Composition Around the World 1900-2020”, forthcoming Policy Research Working Paper No. XXX (Washington, DC) 2021, World Bank Group.
This paper presents a comprehensive database of gross government debt to GDP ratios, covering sample of 130 countries. The database covers the period 1900-2020 for 60 advanced and emerging countries, and over 1960-2020 for the remaining emerging and developing countries. The paper presents a framework that closely follows the UN, IMF, and WB International Standards of Government Statistics and National Accounts to evaluate 50 existing databases on Government Debt. Once the framework has been applied to these databases, we create the Debt of Nations (DNA) Database. The DNA database is different from existing databases on gross government debt in three key areas: i) the database builds on official data provided to the IMF’s Statistics Department, to other International Organizations, and from National Sources ii) the data is disaggregated by institutional units (General, Central, State and Local government), and iii) by residence of the creditors (Domestic and External), offering a multidimensional database on gross governments debt. Finally, the framework employed here sets the foundations for future evaluations and updates of government debt statistics that are methodologically consistent with international standards. This will allow researchers and policy analysts to properly conduct cross country analysis.
“Gross Capital Flows, Common Factors, and the Global Financial Cycle”, (co-authored with Luis Servén), Policy Research Working Paper No. 8354 (Washington, DC) 2018, World Bank Group.
APPLIED AND POLICY-ORIENTED PAPERS
“A Debt Intolerance Framework Applied to Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic” (co-authored with Geoffrey Banister). International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 11/220 (Washington, DC) October 2011.
“The Role of Structural Reforms in Raising Economic Growth in Central America” (co-authored with Andrew Swiston), International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 11/248 (Washington, DC) October 2011.
“Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic: Trade Integration and Economic Performance” (co-authored with Stephanie Medina and Andrew Swiston), International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 12/234 (Washington, DC) 2012.
CHAPTERS IN BOOKS
"Human Capital and the Wealth of Nations: Global Estimates and Trends" (co-authored with Kirk Hamilton, Quentin Wodon, and Ali Yedan) in "The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future", edited by Glenn-Marie Lange, Quentin Wodon, and Kevin Carey. The World Bank (Washington, DC) 2018.
“Measuring Human Capital Wealth: Modeling, Data, and Assumptions.” (co-authored with Kirk Hamilton, Quentin Wodon, A. Yedan, Barbara Fraumeni, and Gang Liu), in “Human Capital and the Changing Wealth of Nations: Investing in People for Sustainable Development”, edited by Glenn-Marie Lange, and Quentin Wodon. The World Bank. (Washington, DC) 2018.
“The Need to Reduce Debt Levels in Central America” (co-authored with Geoffrey Banister), in “Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic: Challenges Following the 2008-09 Global Crisis”, edited by Marco Piñon, Alejandro Lopez Mejia, Mario Garza and Fernando Delgado. International Monetary Fund (Washington, DC) 2012.
“The Importance of Structural Reforms in Boosting Growth” (co-authored with Andrew Swiston), in “Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic: Challenges Following the 2008-09 Global Crisis”, edited by Marco Piñon, Alejandro Lopez Mejia, Mario Garza and Fernando Delgado. International Monetary Fund (Washington, DC) 2012.