Diego A. Martin

Past Experience

2021 - 2022 Consultant, World Bank, Poverty, and Equity Global Practice, Latin America and the Caribbean Region

2020 - 2021 Consultant, Impact Evaluation of Placed Youth program in South Africa, World Bank, Mind, Behaviour, and Development Unit.

2018 - 2019 Research Specialist, Empirical Studies of Conflict – ESOC, Princeton University

2015 - 2018 Research Assistant, Development Bank of Latin America - CAF

2014 - 2015 Research Assistant, Economics Department - Universidad del Rosario

Working papers 

The impact of a rise in expected income of child labor: Evidence from coca production in Colombia. Last modification October 21, 2022.

Abstract

Can households' beliefs about future income shocks affect child labor? This paper examines whether the three-year gap between the announcement (in 2014) and the start (in 2017) of the Illicit Crop Substitution Program (ICSP) increased child labor in Colombia. The ICSP is an antidrug strategy that provides farmers with financial support for not planting and harvesting coca leaves -- the key input of cocaine. My results from a difference-in-differences model using differences in historical coca production show that due to the ICSP announcement, children became four percentage points more likely to work in municipalities with historical coca production than in non--coca-growing areas. Although the number of working hours increased in coca--growing areas, the hours worked per child declined modestly after the ICSP announcement. Finally, the evidence shows no effect of the announcement on education outcomes.

The effect of changes in drug safety status on smoke cessation therapy. Last modification Sep 2022.

Abstract

Do changes in the safety status of medical drugs affect the search for information regarding medical treatment? To address this question, I study how removing the black box warning on Chantix, a prescription medication used to reduce nicotine consumption, affects veterans' visits to smoking cessation therapy. By using a difference-in-differences model, I found that veterans schedule almost two medical consultations more in counties with high-quality hospitals than in places with low-quality medical care centers. For mechanisms, I studied how the veterans more connected to a support network saw an increase in smoke cessation therapy. I use the number of union veterans as a proxy for information channels and knowledge about the Chantix box warning removal. My findings show that veterans who attended Union events are more likely to seek smoke cessation therapy after the Chantix label removal. This study shows how changes in safe status unintentionally affect health outcomes such as scheduling smoke cessation appointments.

Pretending to be the police: Unlawful violence to reduce COVID-19 outbreak (with Dario Romero). Last modification Oct 2022.

Abstract

Did the COVID-19 pandemic create an opportunity to earn population control through illegal violence? We argue that criminal groups in Colombia portrait as de facto police by using violence to reduce the COVID-19 outbreak. Using an Augmented Synthetic Control Method approach, we estimated that mobility to parks fell 20\% more in areas with massacres than in places without mass killings. However, violence slightly impacted the virus's spread since the reduction in attacked areas was only 35 cases per 100.000 inhabitants four months after the first massacre. In addition, we do not find a decline in mobility to workplaces and COVID-19 deaths after the first massacre. These findings are congruent with the hypothesis that illegal armed groups used fear to enforce mobility restrictions without hurting their primary source of financial support.

Impact of Covid-19 on Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Iraq (with Erin Neale, Raffaele Bertini, Julia Smith Omomo, and Olga Aymerich). ERF Working Papers Series, no. 1552, June 2022.

Abstract

Among the main socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Middle Eastern countries, its impact on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is one of the most relevant, especially in post-conflict and fragile countries and contexts. To analyze this, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Iraq, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the International Trade Centre (ITC) jointly conducted a panel study tracking the pandemic’s impact on SMEs in Iraq. The survey was disseminated among over 700 SMEs across the country, covering 16 economic sectors. Four rounds of data were collected at four points between June 2020 and June 2021 (June/July 2020, September 2020, November/December 2020, and June 2021) from businesses registered in the IOM’s database in urban and rural areas. Findings from four rounds of data collection show that COVID-19 negatively affected production, revenue, and employment. The gender gap in the labor force at the beginning of the pandemic (February to June 2020) and COVID-19-related movement restrictions. This study concludes with related policy recommendations for Iraq and the Middle Eastern countries.