Study on multiparametric lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere pre-earthquake anomalies

Title: Study on multiparametric lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere pre-earthquake anomalies

Original title: 岩石层-大气层-电离层的多参数震前异常研究

Total founded amount: 80'000 CNY (bath 69th)

Duration: 2021-2022

Summary: This project explored the reason why the patterns and parameters in the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere that are claimed in the literature to precede earthquakes occurrence and volcano eruptions are often different. The investigation has been conducted using mainly two methodologies, one statistical and a second one about single case studies.

Systematically searching for seismic acceleration in the lithosphere before the M7.5+ earthquakes, it was found that more than 75% of earthquakes have been preceded by seismic acceleration. Furthermore, strike-slip and reverse focal mechanism earthquakes are more likely to be preceded by seismic acceleration than normal faults. Such a result is explainable in terms of dominant potential energy under these different focal mechanism earthquakes, as the former ones are driven by elastic energy while the last one is by gravitational one.

For what concerns the atmosphere, 9 parameters (temperature, humidity, SO2, CO DMS, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Ozone, Aerosol, and methane) have been investigated in the 500 days that preceded the M7+ Worldwide earthquake that occurred in the last 40 years (from 1980 to 2020). The analysis was divided in function of earthquake magnitude, focal mechanism and epicentre locations (sea or land). We identify that each of these conditions plays a role in the atmospheric pre-earthquake patterns. For example, before the land earthquake, 2 main periods of anomalies were identified (from 300 days to 150 days and from 150 days up to the earthquake occurrence), while the sea earthquake shows only the second group of anomalies. We explain this factor suggesting that the ocean can dilute or transform the emitted substance from the fault in the first period.

For the ionosphere, the Swarm data (and some data of CSES) have been systematically investigated, searching for concentrations of magnetic and electron density anomalies in the ionosphere before the occurrence of M5.5+ earthquakes in the last 8 years. The main new result is that sea earthquake seems to emit higher frequency magnetic anomalies (Periods shorter than 10s) than land earthquake. It was also confirmed that the anticipation time of the magnetic anomaly is proportional to the magnitude of the incoming earthquake.

In the single-case approach, it was possible to look at more details. In particular, several chains of phenomena affecting the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere had been identified before the occurrence of the M7.7 Jamaica 2020 earthquake. Such anomalies seem to be influenced by the local geology under the Cayman Trough and the future fault segment broken by the earthquake.

Also, in the case of La Palma volcano eruption of 2021, it was possible to identify some anomalies that can be explained by direct electromagnetic coupling. Other anomalies are probably indirect effects mediated by the presence of the surrounding ocean.

Finally, all these studies show that the pattern of pre-earthquake (or volcano) anomalies can be influenced by the geological and tectonic contents, by the magnitude of the incoming event and by its location in sea or land, explaining, at least partially, why the patterns of claimed pre-earthquake and volcano anomalies are often different.

Published papers:

• Marchetti, Dedalo, Angelo De Santis, Saioa A. Campuzano, Kaiguang Zhu, Maurizio Soldani, Serena D’Arcangelo, Martina Orlando, Ting Wang, Gianfranco Cianchini, Domenico Di Mauro, and et al. 2022. "Worldwide Statistical Correlation of Eight Years of Swarm Satellite Data with M5.5+ Earthquakes: New Hints about the Preseismic Phenomena from Space" Remote Sensing, 14, no. 11: 2649. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14112649

• Marchetti, Dedalo, Kaiguang Zhu, Hanshuo Zhang, Zeren Zhima, Rui Yan, Xuhui Shen, Wenqi Chen, Yuqi Cheng, Xiaodan He, Ting Wang, and et al. 2022. "Clues of Lithosphere, Atmosphere and Ionosphere Variations Possibly Related to the Preparation of La Palma 19 September 2021 Volcano Eruption" Remote Sensing 14, no. 19: 5001. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14195001

• Akhoondzadeh, Mehdi, and Dedalo Marchetti. 2022. "Developing a Fuzzy Inference System Based on Multi-Sensor Data to Predict Powerful Earthquake Parameters" Remote Sensing 14, no. 13: 3203. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14133203

• Marchetti, Dedalo, Kaiguang Zhu, Rui Yan, Zeren Zhima, Xuhui Shen, Wenqi Chen, Yuqi Cheng, Mengxuan Fan, Ting Wang, Jiami Wen, and et al. 2023. "Ionospheric Effects of Natural Hazards in Geophysics: From Single Examples to Statistical Studies Applied to M5.5+ Earthquakes" Proceedings 87, no. 1: 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/IECG2022-13826

• Zhang, Yiqun, Ting Wang, Wenqi Chen, Kaiguang Zhu, Dedalo Marchetti, Yuqi Cheng, Mengxuan Fan, Siyu Wang, Jiami Wen, Donghua Zhang, and et al. 2023. "Are There One or More Geophysical Coupling Mechanisms before Earthquakes? The Case Study of Lushan (China) 2013" Remote Sensing 15, no. 6: 1521. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15061521

• Zhang, Hanshuo, Kaiguang Zhu, Yuqi Cheng, Dedalo Marchetti, Wenqi Chen, Mengxuan Fan, Siyu Wang, Ting Wang, Donghua Zhang, and Yiqun Zhang. 2023. "Atmospheric and Ionospheric Effects of La Palma Volcano 2021 Eruption" Atmosphere 14, no. 8: 1198. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081198

• Chen, Wenqi, Dedalo Marchetti, Kaiguang Zhu, Dario Sabbagh, Rui Yan, Zeren Zhima, Xuhui Shen, Yuqi Cheng, Mengxuan Fan, Siyu Wang, and et al. 2023. "CSES-01 Electron Density Background Characterisation and Preliminary Investigation of Possible Ne Increase before Global Seismicity" Atmosphere 14, no. 10: 1527. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14101527

• Dedalo Marchetti, Kaiguang Zhu, Alessandro Piscini, Essam Ghamry, Xuhui Shen, Rui Yan, Xiaodan He, Ting Wang, Wenqi Chen, Jiami Wen, Yiqun Zhang, Yuqi Cheng, Mengxuan Fan, Donghua Zhang, Hanshuo Zhang, Guido Ventura. 2024 "Changes in the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere before and during the Mw = 7.7 Jamaica 2020 earthquake", Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 307, 2024, 114146, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2024.114146.