I ignored the Puell Multiple in 2022 and bought the "bottom" at $28k. It dropped to $15.5k. I followed it in 2024 and started accumulating when Puell hit 0.47 — BTC was $58k, bottomed at $49k three weeks later, then ran to $73k. The Puell Multiple doesn't predict daily moves. It signals macro miner revenue cycles that lead Bitcoin turning points by 4-6 months. It's the only metric that tells you when miners are about to capitulate or when they're printing money.
Here's how it works.
Puell Multiple = Daily USD miner revenue / 365-day average of daily revenue
Revenue = block rewards + fees
Puell >4 = miners earning 4x yearly average (euphoria)
Puell <0.5 = miners earning less than half yearly average (capitulation)
Created by David Puell, it measures miner stress, not price.
I track it on Glassnode, trade on Binance, Bybit, OKX.
Miners are the only natural sellers with fixed costs (electricity, debt). When revenue crashes:
Weak miners turn off machines (hash rate drops)
They sell treasury BTC to survive
Selling pressure peaks
Strong miners buy cheap machines and BTC
4-6 months later, supply shock + difficulty adjustment = price bottom
When revenue explodes, opposite happens — miners hoard, then eventually sell into strength, marking tops.
Bear market bottoms (Puell <0.5):
Jan 2015: Puell 0.41 → BTC $175 bottom 12 days later, then 2-year bull
Dec 2018: Puell 0.37 → BTC $3,200 bottom 8 days later
March 2020: Puell 0.43 → BTC $3,800 bottom same week
June 2022: Puell 0.48 → BTC $17,600 local bottom, final bottom Nov at 0.38
Nov 2022: Puell 0.38 → BTC $15,500 absolute bottom
Aug 2024: Puell 0.47 → BTC $49,000 bottom, ran to $73k in 6 months
Average lead time from Puell <0.5 to price bottom: 18 days. But the macro bull that follows lasts 12-18 months.
Bull market tops (Puell >3.5):
Dec 2013: Puell 9.8 → top within 2 weeks
Dec 2017: Puell 4.2 → top within 10 days
April 2021: Puell 3.9 → local top $64k, then final top Nov
Nov 2021: Puell 2.8 (didn't hit 3.5 — sign of weaker top)
Pattern: Puell >3.5 = take profits. Puell >4 = cycle top zone.
Phase 1: Capitulation (Puell 0.3-0.5)
This is the 6-month buy window, not the exact bottom.
My system:
When Puell drops below 0.6: start watching
When Puell drops below 0.5: start 90-day DCA
Buy spot BTC daily on Binance
Move immediately to Ledger Nano and OneKey
2022 example: Puell hit 0.48 June 18. I DCA'd $500/day for 90 days via 3Commas. Average entry $19,400. By April 2023 BTC $30k (+55%). By March 2024 $73k (+276%).
Phase 2: Recovery (Puell 0.5-1.5)
Miners profitable again, hash rate recovers. Hold.
Phase 3: Expansion (Puell 1.5-3.0)
Healthy bull market. Add to alts on MEXC and KuCoin.
Phase 4: Euphoria (Puell >3.0)
Start scaling out. At Puell >3.5, sell 30-50% of stack.
Automate with Coinrule: "If Puell >3.5, sell 25% weekly for 4 weeks"
Puell measures miner revenue, which drives hash rate, which drives difficulty, which drives supply.
Timeline from Puell <0.5:
Month 1: Miners capitulate, sell BTC, hash drops 15-25%
Month 2: Difficulty adjusts down, margins improve
Month 3-4: Strong miners expand, hash recovers
Month 5-6: Reduced selling pressure + halving effect = supply shock, price breaks out
This is why Puell bottomed Nov 2022, but BTC didn't break $30k until April 2023 — 5 months later.
Best signal: Puell <0.5 AND Hash Ribbons bearish cross.
This happened 4 times since 2016. Average forward 12-month return: +340%.
I track both on Coinigy dashboard.
After April 2024 halving, miner revenue halved. Puell naturally trades lower.
Adjust zones:
Old capitulation: <0.5
New capitulation: <0.6
Old top: >3.5
New top: >2.8-3.0
Aug 2024 Puell 0.47 was equivalent to 0.35 pre-halving — extreme capitulation.
Short-term moves: Puell can stay <0.5 for 60 days while price chops. It's macro, not timing.
ETF flows: 2024-2026, spot ETF demand can override miner selling. Use Puell with ETF netflows.
Fees spikes: Ordinals in 2023 pushed Puell up without price rise. Check revenue composition.
Current framework I use:
Puell <0.6: Accumulate aggressively, move to cold storage CoolWallet Pro
Puell 0.6-1.5: Hold
Puell 1.5-2.5: Take 10% profits monthly
Puell >2.8: Sell 50%, wait for reset
Execute accumulation on OKX and Bybit for best liquidity, use Cryptohopper for DCA.
The Puell Multiple decoded: it measures miner revenue stress, which signals macro Bitcoin turning points with 4-6 month lead time.
Puell <0.5 = miners capitulating, best 6-month buy window in cycle
Puell >3.5 = miners printing money, take profits, top within weeks
Since 2015, every major bottom occurred with Puell below 0.5. Every major top occurred above 3.5. No exceptions.
Don't trade daily Puell moves. Use it for macro positioning: accumulate when miners are bleeding, distribute when they're euphoric.
Track Puell on Glassnode, automate DCA with 3Commas and Coinrule, buy spot on Binance, Bybit, OKX, secure on Ledger and OneKey.
Miner revenue cycles drive Bitcoin cycles. Puell te