Publications in Refereed Journals

“Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Macroeconomic Projections,” with James Otterson, Journal of Macroeconomics 75, 2023.

"The Short-Term Effects of Tax Changes: The Role of State Dependence," Journal of Monetary Economics 117, 918-934, 2021.

“Identification of Technology Shocks Using Misspecified VARs,” Canadian Journal of Economics 48, 1321-1349, 2015.

“On the Cyclicality of Credit,” Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 1129-1160, 2014.

"Gains from Commitment in Monetary Policy: Implications of the Cost Channel," Journal of Macroeconomics 38, 218-226, 2013.

“The Value of Monetary Policy Commitment under Imperfect Fiscal Credibility,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 36, 813-829, 2012. (Lead Article)

“Macroeconomic Stabilization in Developing Economies: Are Optimal Policies Procyclical?” European Economic Review 54, 409-428, 2010.

“Optimal Monetary Policy in a Financially Fragile Economy,” The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Contributions), Vol. 9: Iss. 1, Article 15, 2009.

“The Transmission of Foreign Interest Rate Shocks to a Small-Open Economy: The Role of External Debt and Financial Integration,” The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Contributions), Vol. 9: Iss. 1, Article 3, 2009.

Other Publications

"Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack," with Matthew Wilson, 2023, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2023-05. 

“Effects of Physical Infrastructure Spending on the Economy and the Budget Under Two Illustrative Scenarios” with Jeffrey Kling and Chad Shirley, August 2021.

"Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output” with John Seliski, Aaron Betz, Yiqun Gloria Chen, Junghoon Lee, and Jaeger Nelson, 2020, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2020-07.

"Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment," 2020, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2020-05.

“The Short-Term Effects of Tax Changes—Evidence for State Dependence,” 2016, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2016-03.

"Chapter 6: The Effects of Illustrative Budgetary Paths on the Long-Term Outlook”, In: The Long Term Budget Outlook, Congressional Budget Office, July 2016.

“Macroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of Federal Investment,” Congressional Budget Office, June 2016.

“The Macroeconomic Effects of Eliminating Automatic Reductions to Discretionary Spending Caps,” Congressional Budget Office, August 2015.

 “Chapter 6: The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Various Fiscal Policies,” In: The Long Term Budget Outlook, Congressional Budget Office, July 2015.

 “Appendix C: Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Updated Estimates,” In: The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024, Congressional Budget Office, February 2014.