DAWS Workshop on Uncertainty Propagation
How can we describe the limits of our knowledge and do work in spite of what we do not know?
1 March 2023, Crush Hall, University of Liverpool
Agenda
Directions to Crush Hall
Crush Hall is in the Harrison Hughes building. Take the lift to 1st floor, turn right, walk straight toward window through door, turn left, walk up three steps, first door on the right.
Resources
Slides
Morning - Uncertainty in the conceptual and preliminary design of aircraft
Hristov - Safety Factors v Honest UQ.pptxCooper - UQ Components of Aerospace Design.pdfCoggon - Industrial challenges for UQ&M application to the definition, convergence and optimisation of aircraft design.pdfAfternoon 1 - Using precise probability distributions to characterise epistemic uncertainty
Ioannou - Expert elicitation.pdfWimbush - Alternative Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty.pdfRendall - Uncertainty in Bespoke Multiphysics Models.pdfGrey - Dependence sampling.pdfAfternoon 2 - Surrogate modelling: linking uncertainty quantification and engineering design
Bekemeyer - Surrogate Modelling Choosing the Right Tool for the Job.pdfBekemeyer - Surrogates for UQ and Robust Design.pdfRecorded Sessions
Morning - Uncertainty in the conceptual and preliminary design of aircraft
Safety factors vs. honest UQ
UQ components of aerospace design
Industrial challenges to UQ & M
Afternoon 1 - Using precise probability distributions to characterise epistemic uncertainty
Expert elicitation for the construction of precise probability distributions
Alternative characterisations for epistemic uncertainty
Uncertainty in bespoke multiphysics models
Propagating unknown uncertainty decisions through black-box models
Afternoon 2 - Surrogate modelling: linking uncertainty quantification and engineering design
Surrogate modelling - choosing the right tool for the job
Surrogate models for UQ and robust design - an aerospace example
Surrogate modelling - the link between UQ and engineering