Research
Research
My research interests lie at the intersection of public economics, labor economics and development economics.
I harmonized household surveys to elicit individuals' behavioral responses to multiple natural experiments, studying reactions to changes in fiscal pressure and to tax-benefit reforms in Latin America. I also use tax-benefit microsimulation to produce counterfactuals enabling a homogeneous comparison of inequality trends. In companion papers, I study how redistributive preferences, perceived inequality, and other key psychological determinants may be unexplored triggers of social unrest.
Publications
World Development (forthcoming) with Olivier Bargain and H. Xavier Jara
Abstract: Latent feelings of economic vulnerability and social stagnation may have catalyzed the unprecedented uprisings that shook Latin America and other parts of the world in 2018-2019. We document this process in the context of Chile, leveraging survey data on protest participation and its potential determinants. Specifically, we construct a “social gap” index, measuring the disconnect between objective and perceived social status. Our findings suggest that this social gap predicts protest involvement beyond factors such as perceived living costs, the subjective value of public services, peer influence, or political demands. Notably, it complements broader feelings of anger toward inequalities in explaining protests.
Submitted with Olivier Bargain and H. Xavier Jara
Abstract: To finance increased public spending and social programs, Latin America's tax systems need to develop further. Yet taxation can reduce the tax base by discouraging formal employment. Evidence on the intensity of the problem is limited and tends to focus on specifically large reforms of the tax system. Conversely, and to improve external validity, we study whether routine changes in tax policies also alter labor market formalization. Our approach is based on grouped-data estimations of formal employment responses to policy changes. We exploit tax variation across three countries (Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia) and three periods (2008, 2014/15, 2019). We use precise calculations of counterfactual tax burdens when moving from informal to formal jobs, i.e. formalization tax rates (FTRs). For most countries and pairs of years, FTRs have a negative and significant effect on formal employment, particularly when wages are held constant across periods – in order to extract the pure policy effect – and in a series of sensitivity checks.
Minimum Wages, Contribution Floors, and Informality (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: In many developing economies, minimum wages do not merely set a floor for formal earnings; they also anchor social security contributions, transforming minimum wage reforms into mechanical increases in the fixed cost of formal employment. This paper examines how these minimum contribution requirements affect labor market duality and inequality. Exploiting quasi-experimental policy changes across Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru (2004–2024), I combine harmonized household and firm microdata to estimate the causal impact of this ’contribution bite’. I find that a one-standard-deviation increase in a group’s exposure to the contribution floor increases informal employment by 14% and raises overall earnings inequality by 4%. On the firm side, a one-standard-deviation increase in a firm’s exposure to the contribution floor reduces formal employment and total sales by 3% and 4%. These findings demonstrate that when social protection acts as a regressive tax, it inadvertently excludes vulnerable workers and firms from the formal sector, potentially exacerbating the inequality it was designed to mitigate.
The Redistributive Effect of Tax-benefit Reforms in Latin America
with Olivier Bargain, Ana Bottega, Rodrigo Chang, Mariana Dondo, Pedro Forquesato, H. Xavier Jara
Abstract: Standard inequality studies focus on tracking market income, blurring the role of tax-benefit systems. This paper quantifies how tax-benefit reforms shaped poverty and inequality in six Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru over two decades. We combine harmonized household surveys with microsimulation models to construct counterfactual income distributions and apply a decomposition method to isolate the pure policy effect of taxes and transfers from changes in market incomes, demographics, and nominal uprating. We examine heterogeneity across countries and across economic cycles. We elicit differential paths following the notable first expansion, mid-2010s stagnation, and the 2020 COVID shock, assessing the roles of progressive taxation, expanded social protection, and automatic stabilizers. This study delivers comparable, policy-relevant evidence on which fiscal reforms most effectively reduced poverty and inequality in the region, informing debates on fiscal space, inclusive growth, and resilience to shocks in developing economies.
Social Leader Killings and Deforestation.
Covid, gender, and labor supply in Mexico
The link between Eradication Policies and Unexpected Crime in Colombia : An IV approach
Cogneau, D., Dupraz, Y., Knebelmann, J., and Mesplé-Somps, S. (2021). Taxation in Africa from colonial times to present: Evidence from former French colonies, 1900-2018. HAL. https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03420664
OECD (2020), Education at a Glance 2020: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/69096873-en.